China, India, And Russia Could Challenge U.S. Influence
Layne 9 Robert M. Gates Chair in Intelligence and National Security at the George Bush School of Government and Public Service at Texas A&M University.
Christopher, International Security, Volume 34, Number 1, Summer 2009, pp. 147-172 (Review), The Waning of U.S. Hegemony—Myth or Reality? A Review Essay
China, India, and possibly Russia are emerging great powers.16 As Global Trends 2025 points out, the rise of China and India to great power status will restore each to “the positions they held two centuries ago when China produced approximately 30 percent and India 15 percent of the world’s wealth” (p. 7). Their ascent is being propelled by “the global shift in relative wealth and economic power” from North America and the Euro-Atlantic world to Asia— a shift “without precedent in modern history” (ibid.). By 2025, China figures to have the world’s second-largest economy (measured by gross domestic product [GDP]) and will be a first-rank military power (p. 30). India, buoyed by its strong economic growth rate, will “strive for a multipolar system with New Delhi as one of the poles” (ibid.). Although both states could encounter speed bumps that might slow—or even derail—their ascents to great power status, the NIC believes that the “chances are good that China and India will continue to rise” (p. 29).17 Because of uncertainties about economics, energy prices, domestic governance issues, and especially demography, Russia’s great power trajectory is more problematic than China’s or India’s (pp. 31–32).18 Between 2009 and 2025, Russia’s population is forecast to drop from 141 million to below 130 million, affecting the availability of manpower for both the military and the labor pools (pp. 23–24, 30). If Russia overcomes its demographic challenge and continues its revival as a great power, however, the NIC believes it “will be a leading force in opposition to U.S. global dominance” (p. 32).
Heg Down – China Rising
China counterbalances with regional economic and military dominance
Suara Merdeka 5-26-11 Indonesian National Newspaper
“Watching America How China Opposes United States Hegemony” (http://axisoflogic.com/artman/publish/Article_63138.shtml)
Masdar F Masíudi uttered an interesting opinion during the discussion "Dismantling the Root of Terrorism" in Jakarta earlier this week. According to the PBNU official, China opposes the hegemony of the United States not with violence, but by quietly building its economy, society, politics and military for the last 20 years. “Now, even America has to tip its hat to China’s progress,” said Masdar. Because of that, he urges that opposition to America be conducted in an intelligent way like it is in China.It is important that this opinion be noted and contemplated by all of us in Indonesia. Masdar offered this assessment to advance a new thesis about the most reasonable way to oppose American hegemony and its negative impacts. That thesis is fit to be considered as an alternative to the ways of violence and terror that, according to this view, will inevitably use up a lot of energy and damage one’s own self. Haven’t we seen terrorism in Indonesia consuming many victims of its own nation during all this time? Even though Masdar did not present data about the progress of China, the record of its development is already widely known. The Panda Nation is famous for adhering to a socialist system but applying an economic policy that is capitalistic. Socialism can be peacefully “wrapped” within capitalism in China, astonishing the world as a result. Every year, its economic growth is above 10 percent while other countries only record an average growth of 5 percent. In fact, the economies of the U.S. and European countries only grow by an average of 2 percent to 4 percent. On account of the speed of its economic growth, the authorities of China itself are even worried and are trying to suppress it with various policies. The last thing they did was cancel plans to devalue the yuan. The continually strengthening value of the yuan is protested by many countries, mainly developed countries, because that value can accelerate the crisis in those regions. China itself sees that revaluing the yuan can beat back its trade in products all over the world; Chinese products have long been known for their high competitiveness because of cheap prices.With high economic growth as well as global domination of manufactured products and electronics, China now appears to be a country with the second-greatest economic strength in the world after America. Japan and South Korea have already been surpassed. China’s foreign exchange reserves, which reach $3 trillion, are the biggest in the world. Not only that, but 20 years in the future, China’s military strength and weapons systems are predicted to equal America’s. At that time, China will appear to be a new superpower. It can be said that China is in the process of reaching its destiny as America’s replacement. All the prerequisites for becoming a new superpower will soon be met. With a very large population, the global and geopolitical influence of the “Bamboo Curtain” country cannot be ignored. This is even more true if at the beginning of 2012, China has already begun to build cross-country China-Singapore and China-Tehran-Europe railroads. So what Masdar said was correct; China’s model of “opposition” to American hegemony should be an example
Heg Down – China Rising
Power transition effect
Clark 11, Professor of International Politics at the University of Wales, Aberystwyth Ian, China and the United States: a succession of hegemonies? International Affairs 87:1 (2011) 13–28 © 2011 The Author(s). International Affairs © 2011 The Royal Institute of International Affairs.
How does this analysis apply specifically to the debate about the future of the United States and China, and the likelihood of a power transition between them? This latter framework is the ‘most widely used’ by scholars writing on ‘the rise of China’. 41 Accordingly, the question so many are eager to pose is exactly whether China will ‘challenge the current reigning hegemon, the United States’. 42 Ideas of ‘transition’ and ‘succession’ dominate this discussion: China’s rise affects the United States because of what IR scholars call the ‘power transition’ effect. Throughout the history of the modern international states system, ascending powers have always challenged the position of the dominant (hegemonic) power in the international system—and these challenges have usually culminated in war. 43 The rise of China, we are warned, is likely to prove no exception. 44 Whether peaceful or not, ‘hegemonic transition’ is certainly the recurrent image. 45 While many question the extent to which this is already under way, even the rebuttals mostly conform to the same frame of reference. 46
China counterbalancing will surpass US economic and military hegemony
Layne 08 professor at Texas A&M University’s George H. W. Bush School of Government and Public Service.
(Christopher “China’s Challenge to US Hegemony”, Volume: 107 Issue: 705; Spring 2008; http://acme.highpoint.edu/~msetzler/IR/IRreadingsbank/chinauscontain.ch08.6.pdf., 6/29/2011)
The leadership in Beijing understands the link between economic strength and geopolitical weight. It realizes that, if China can continue to sustain near–double digit growth rates in the early decades of this century, it will surpass the United States as the world’s largest economy (measured by gross domestic product). Because of this astonishing economic growth, China is, as journalist James Kynge has put it (with a nod to Napoleon), truly shaking the world both economically and geopolitically. Studies by the US Central Intelligence Agency and others have projected that China will be a first-rate military power and will rival America in global power by 2020.