Hegemony & Leadership Toolbox



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A2: China Rising



China will not surpass the united states in the foreseeable future; America will remain the global hegemon for the next fifty years

Nye, 10 the dean at the kennedy school of government, ph. D in political science from Harvard university,

Joseph S., speech for TED blogs on the global power shift on july 1 2010 http://www.sweetspeeches.com/s/699-joseph-nye-global-power-shifts / http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:QzrucC-08bsJ:www.sweetspeeches.com/s/699-joseph-nye-global-power shifts+joseph+nye+speech+on+global+power+shift &cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us&source=www.google.com accessed on 6/28/11



Goldman Sachs has projected that China, the Chinese economy, will surpass that of the U.S. by 2027. So we've got, what, 17 more years to go or so before China's bigger. Now someday, with a billion point three people getting richer, they are going to be bigger than the United States. But be very careful of these projections such as the Goldman Sachs projection as though that gives you an accurate picture of power transition in this century. Let me mention three reasons why it's too simple. First of all, it's a linear projection. You know, everything says, here's the growth rate of China, here's the growth rate of the U.S., here it goes -- straight line. History is not linear. There are often bumps along the road, accidents along the way. The second thing is that the Chinese economy passes the U.S. economy in, let's say, 2030, which it may it, that will be a measure of total economic size, but not of per capita income -- won't tell you about the composition of the economy. China still has large areas of underdevelopment. And per capita income is a better measure of the sophistication of the economy. And that the Chinese won't catch up or pass the Americans until somewhere in the latter part, after 2050, of this century. The other point that's worth noticing is how one-dimensional this projection is. You know, it looks at economic power measured by GDP. Doesn't tell you much about military power, doesn't tell you very much about soft power. It's all one-dimensional. And also, when we think about the rise of Asia, or return of Asia, as I called it a little bit earlier, it's worth remembering Asia's not one thing. If you're sitting in Japan, or in New Delhi, or in Hanoi, your view of the rise of China is a little different than if you're sitting in Beijing. Indeed, one of the advantages that the Americans will have in terms of power in Asia is all those countries want an American insurance policy against the rise of China. It's as though Mexico and Canada were hostile neighbors to the United States, which they're not. So these simple projections of the Goldman Sachs type are not telling us what we need to know about power transition.

A2: Overstretch


US leadership persists despite mistakes and overreach

Omstead 08 Senior Engineer at Micron Technology

Thomas, “Is America Really On the Decline?” U.S. News and World Report, 6/29/11. http://www.usnews.com/news/national/articles/2008/10/29/is-america-really-on-the-decline?PageNr=5&s_cid=rss:is-america-really-on-the-decline

And yet, for all the deflating news, the time-tested ability of American society to assess and overcome problems should interject caution about proclaiming the American century over and done with. The restorative capacity of America, reasons Thérèse Delpech, a leading French strategic thinker, "is constantly underestimated abroad and even sometimes at home." Those who contend American decline is being exaggerated—or not happening—say that the unipolar moment was never destined to last and that the degree of deference actually accorded to Washington in happier days was never as much as is portrayed. Take, for instance, the disfavor visited on the United States because of its racial segregation and bigotry and a polarizing war in Vietnam. Nor are doubts about American competence a new factor. Blunders, errors of judgment, the warping of policy by partisan politics, and intemperate rhetoric all are recurring features of U.S. policymaking; nevertheless, American leadership persists. "The U.S. is no good at foreign policy," asserts Walter Russell Mead, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and author of Special Providence: American Foreign Policy and How It Changed the World. He likens the robustness of America's global standing to the muddling through of the comic bumbler Mr. Magoo. "The Bush administration has danced with the world in the worst way," Mead says—but the damage is mostly reversible. "The fundamentals of America's power position in the world," he says, "are probably as strong as they were in 2001." Further, the current credit crash follows in a long tradition of occasional panics and meltdowns in both the British Empire and the United States. "Those crises haven't sunk us in 300 years," reasons Mead. "We seem to find a way to manage them." Skeptics of U.S. decline believe that other weaknesses are exaggerated and that the U.S. economy remains central. Says George Schwab, president of the New York-based National Committee on American Foreign Policy, "When Wall Street coughs, the rest of the world catches a cold." No other currency, including the euro and the Chinese renminbi, is yet ready to replace the dollar. The economic burdens of leadership are said to be manageable. U.S. defense expenditures today equal 4.2 percent of the nation's GDP, compared with 9 percent in the Vietnam War.
US hegemony not declining – technology and adaptability will keep us ahead

Kagan 8. Expert and frequent commentator on Egypt, the Middle East, U.S. national security, and U.S.-European relation for the Washington Post and New Republic

Robert, ‘Make No Mistake, America is Thriving’ The Independent, 6/28/11. http://www.independent.co.uk /opinion/commentators/robert-kagan-make-no-mistake-america-is-thriving-981760.html

One hopes that whoever wins will quickly dismiss all this faddish declinism. It seems to come along every 10 years or so. In the late 1970s, the foreign policy establishment was seized with what Cyrus Vance called the limits of our power". In the late 1980s, the scholar Paul Kennedy predicted the imminent collapse of American power due to "imperial overstretch". In the late 1990s, Samuel P Huntington warned of American isolation as the "lonely superpower". Now we have the "post-American world". Yet the evidence of American decline is weak. Yes, as Zakaria notes, the world's largest ferris wheel is in Singapore and the largest casino in Macau. But by more serious measures of power, the United States is not in decline, not even relative to other powers. Its share of the global economy last year was about 21 per cent, compared with about 23 per cent in 1990, 22 per cent in 1980 and 24 per cent in 1960. Although the United States is suffering a financial crisis, so is every other major economy. If the past is any guide, the adaptable American economy will be the first to come out of recession and may actually find its position in the global economy enhanced. Meanwhile, American military power is unmatched. While the Chinese and Russian militaries are both growing, America's is growing, too, and continues to outpace them technologically. Russian and Chinese power is growing relative to their neighbours and their regions, which will pose strategic problems, but that is because American allies, especially in Europe, have systematically neglected their defenses.

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