Future of Agriculture in Iran Case Study: Livestock & Poultry Products F. Mirzaei



Download 58.76 Kb.
Date conversion16.05.2016
Size58.76 Kb.
Future of Agriculture in Iran

Case Study: Livestock & Poultry Products
F. Mirzaei
*Research lectureship, Department of Animal Production and Management, Animal Sciences Research Institute,P.O.Box:31585-1483,Karaj,Iran.e-mail:farmir2001@yahoo.com
Running title: Comparative advantage, poultry products, future and competition

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Correspondence to: F. Mirzaei,Research and development department ,Animal Science Research Institute,P.O.Box:31535-579,Karaj,Iran. E-mail:farmir2001@yahoo.com. Tel/Fax: 98-261-421-3256 
Abstract:

The agriculture contribution in gross domestic product(GDP)from 21.3% to 24.5% in terms of 1991-2002 is indicated to important role of this sector in the national economics Essential indices of Agriculture sector is separated to three main issues.1-Macro indices including:value added, investment, employment, international trade and productivity.2-Agricultural production indices including :crop production,horticulture production,animal production and aquatic production.3-indices of fundamental resources production including :water,soil,forest,pasture and genetic resources.

Growth rate of this sector in mentioned years was fluctuable,so it was between 10.1% in 2001 and -8.6% in 1999.targetable subsidies in direction to increasing of production,establishment of constant income fund Regarding to existence potential of this sector,accessing to markets of Middle Asia and Middle East countries,also new situation of global economics(wto,trade liberalization)growth of export of agricultural products and entrance to global and regional markets can be reached to express and development of this sector and national economic.for this way.Animal production situation is changed in past decade positively,so its production is increased from 5390000 tons in 1991 to 8107000 tons in 2001 that is indicated to 3.8% annual growth in the mentioned term. Production capacities of animal products sub-sector is 820 millions commercial poultry,2440000 honeybee colonies,598 dairy factories,134 livestock slaughter-houses,112 meat processing manufactories,551 Pelt,Pickle and Leather processing firms,214 feedstuffs manufactories. Also,its export contribution from Agriculture sector is 11.7%.

Longterm qualitative targets in livestock sub-sector:Improement of animal products quality,enhancement of animal resources productivity and export development,promotion of producers' technical knowledge,regulation of market and using of appropriate supporting policies,sustainable food security,self dependency in animal production and improvement of protein nutrition index,identification,registration,preservation and qualitative-quantitative development of animal resources,regulation,rainforcing of production legal syndicates and providing of infrastructure for their legal appearance in the decision-making centers.

Longterm quantitative targets in livestock sub-sector:

-enhancement of animal production from 8834000 tons in 2003 to 12911000 tons in 2009

-enhancement of milk production from 6316000 tons to 9556000 tons.

-increasing of red meat from 752000 tons to 921000 tons.

-increasing of poultry meat from 1100000 tons to 1605000 tons.

-enhancement of hen egg from 628000 tons to 789000 tons.

-enhancement of honey production from 29000 tons to 40000 tons.

Keywords: Agriculture, Comparative advantage, Livestock and Poultry products,

Introduction & Results:

About 11 percent of the country's total land area of 163.6 million hectares is cultivated. Still 63% of the cultivable lands have not been used, and given the fact that 18.5 million hectares of the present farms are being used with 50 to 60% utility, and about one-seventh of the total cultivated land is sufficient to meet domestic demand,Agriculture contributes just over 20% to the gross national product (GNP) and employs a third of the labor force.The agriculture contribution in gross domestic product(GDP)from 21.3% to 24.5% in terms of 1991-2002 is indicated to important role of this sector in the national economics Essential indices of Agriculture sector is separated to three main issues.1-Macro indices including:value added, investment, employment, international trade and productivity.2-Agricultural production indices including :crop production,horticulture production,animal production and aquatic production.3-indices of fundamental resources production including :water,soil,forest,pasture and genetic resources.

Growth rate of this sector in mentioned years was fluctuable,so it was between 10.1% in 2001 and -8.6% in 1999.Basic limitations and problems is as follows:low technical knowledge of producers,weakness of extension and education system,deffectiveness of research system and shortage of applied research,low productivity of production inputs,mechanization crisis,asystematic usage of pasture(imbalance between livestock and pasture capacity) and forest, separated lands of agriculture,low efficiency of irrigation system,incoordination of irrigation network and providing of agricultural water,absence of government support from investors and producers,deficiency of investment security ,attentional deficit to rural development,shortage of fundamental particles of production ,technical services and commerce,absence of appropriate trade policies to agricultural products export, strategic targets of agricultural sector food security with emphasizing of domestic resources,self-sufficiency in essential commodities ,export development,future aids of agriculture development,systemic approach to soil and water resource,achieving of supporting policies to agricultural products insurance ,bonded purchasing system and targetable subsidies in direction to increasing of production,establishment of constant income fund Regarding to existence potential of this sector, accessing to markets of Middle Asia and Middle East countries ,also new situation of global economics(WTO, Trade liberalization)growth of export of agricultural products and entrance to global and regional markets can be reached to express and development of this sector and national economic. for this way, during of 1991-2001 ,growth rate of annual export is been 1.2% ,whereas growth rate of annual import in this sector is decreased to-3.2%.

Animal production situation is changed in past decade positively, so its production is increased from 5390000 tons in 1991 to 8107000 tons in 2001 that is indicated to 3.8% annual growth in the mentioned term. Production capacities of animal products sub-sector is 120 millions animal unit ,820 millions commercial poultry,2440000 honeybee colonies,598 dairy factories,134 livestock slaughter-houses,112 meat processing manufactories,551 Pelt, Pickle and Leather processing firms,214 feedstuffs manufactories. Also, its export contribution from Agriculture sector is 11.7%.Iran face a number of challenges in international markets. Individually, they are less able to exert pressure on other countries, particularly richer countries, to "play fair" in international trade. Greater dependence on agriculture for income and employment, and on agricultural exports for foreign exchange, may make them vulnerable to changes in supply, demand, and prices in international market. For more explanation of above mentioned subjects,we studied on poultry products (poultry meat and Hen egg) production and export of Iran and its comparision with others in the Middle East region.It is showed that, contribution of chicken meat production has been increasing but the country's total chicken meat production in the Middle East is not stable due to problems in coordination of production policies and elasticity of the region's market. Besides, the value of Iran's chicken meat export out of the total value of chicken meat export of the region is less than the Iranian export weight. It was observed that Iran gains lower price per a kilogram export. This may be attributed to low quality chicken meat from average quality of chicken meat other competitors or poor bargaining power. Trade and production policies and economic behaviour of producers and exporters have been in such a way that they could not show a appropriate and timely response of region., also the revealed instabilities in this trends during the study period(1990-2002)led to the conclusion that there is no well defined strategy and plan for utilization of low price production factors, effective human power, knowledge of bargaining power and target markets.


Policy recommendations:

Livestock are important in supporting the livelihoods of the poor throughout the developing world. They provide an appreciating asset, a source of income, food, insurance, as well as important farm inputs such as manure and draught power. Livestock provide high quality nutrients in meat, milk and eggs in areas where malnutrition is common. Livestock can provide employment and stimulate trade at all levels. The demand-led expansion of the livestock sector is associated with a dynamic structural shift towards increased market orientation and integration, larger scales, geographic concentration and intensification.International trade in livestock and livestock products is big business, accounting for about one sixth, by value, of all agricultural trade. Meat exports - mainly of bovine, pig and poultry meat - make up about half the total value,so Iran should have serious programme to use new opportunities promoting of guality and guantity of its livestock products in this global market.


Longterm qualitative targets in livestock sub-sector:

Carrying out national animal husbandry system,improvement of animal products quality,enhancement of animal resources productivity and export development,promotion of producers' technical knowledge,regulation of market and using of appropriate supporting policies,sustainable food security,self dependency in animal production and improvement of protein nutrition index, identification, registration,preservation and qualitative-quantitative development of animal resources,regulation,rainforcing of production legal syndicates and providing of infrastructure for their legal appearance in the decision-making centers.

Longterm quantitative targets in livestock sub-sector:

-increasing of animal protein supply per person to 5.7 gram until future five years based on 3.14gr from milk,0.32gr from red meat,1.84gr from poultry meat,0.4gr from eggs.

-enhancement of animal production from 8834000 tons in 2003 to 12911000 tons in 2009

-enhancement of milk production from 6316000 tons to 9556000 tons.

-increasing of red meat from 752000 tons to 921000 tons.

-increasing of poultry meat from 1100000 tons to 1605000 tons.

-enhancement of egg production from 628000 tons to 789000 tons.

-enhancement of honey production from 29000 tons to 40000 tons.

- appropriate enhancement of other products same as wool,hair and leather

References:

1-Balassa, B. Trade liberalization and revealed comparative advantage.The Manchester School of Economic and Social Studies,33,99-123.1965

2-F.A.O. trade yearbook (2004)

3-Fathi,Y.,Valibeigy,H. Comparative advantage of Iran’s dairy products export in compart with main rivals. The first specialized dairy industry symposium. Jihad-e-Agriculture Ministry, Tehran, Iran.P.435-461 .2001

4-Ferto,I.,Hubbard,L.J. Revealed comparative advantage and competitiveness in Hungarian agri -food sectors. World Economy.26,P.247-59.2003

5-Karbasi,A.,Abbasian,M.Survey on comparative advantage of Iranian Khaviar.The 1st Congress on Animal & Aguatic Sciences,Faculties of Agricultural & Natural Resources,The University of Tehran,Karaj,Iran,P.1003-1006.2004

6-Mirzaei,F.,Yazdani,S.,Gharahdaghi,A.A. Survey on comparative advantage of chicken meat export of Iran in the world.The 2th Iranian Poultry Science Seminar ,Animal Science Research Institute,Karaj,Iran, P.150-155.2003

7-Mirzaei,F.,Yazdani,S.,Gharahdaghi,A.A. Competitiveness of Iranian hen egg industry in the Middle East,Agriculture congress 2004,University Putra.2004

8-Rae, A.N. and Hertel, T.W. Future Developments in Global Livestock and Grains Markets: the impacts of livestock productivity convergence in Asia/Pacific. 43rd Annual Conference of the Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, January, Christchurch .1999

9-Rae, A.N. Trade in Livestock Products, the WTO Millenium round and East Asia: Projections to 2005, presented at the International Workshop on Sustainable Animal Production and World Food Supply to 2020, School of Veterinary Medicine Hannover, Germany, 9 August 2000



Table 1-Trend of Iran's Hen egg production share(IPS)from Middle East production(MP),Iran's export share(IES)from Iran's production(IP),Iran's export weight share(IEWS)from Middle East export(ME)and Iran's export value share (IEVS)from Middle East export(ME)

Year

IPS/MP

IES/IP

IEVS/ME

IEWS/ME

1990

.233

.0000169

.001

.000204

1991

.257

.0000294

.002

.000383

1992

.271

0

0

0

1993

.281

0

0

0

1994

.306

.28246

.276

.264

1995

.281

.0000323

.001

.000559

1996

.326

0

0

0

1997

.276

.001402

.009

.011

1998

.267

.00398

.022

.033

1999

.301

.00396

.039

.062

2000

.301

.06662

.481

.647

2001

.318

.05663

.311

.507

2002

.297

.03163

.281

.473

Table 2-Trend of Iran's poultry meat production share(IPS)from Middle East production(MP),Iran's export share(IES)from Iran's production(IP),Iran's export weight share(IEWS)from Middle East export(ME)and Iran's export value share (IEVS)from Middle East export(ME)



Year

IPS/MP

IES/IP

IEVS/ME

IEWS/ME

1990

0.20

0

0

0

1991

0.23

0

0

0

1992

0.26

0

0

0

1993

0.26

0

0

0

1994

0.26

0.001

0.011

0.015

1995

0.26

0.002

0.005

0.027

1996

0.24

0.003

0.013

0.044

1997

0.24

0.008

0.018

0.089

1998

0.23

0.008

0.021

0.113

1999

0.23

0.007

0.027

0.174

2000

0.23

0.009

0.022

0.172

2001

0.24

0.010

0.036

0.153

2002

0.22

0.014

0.70

0.183


The database is protected by copyright ©essaydocs.org 2016
send message

    Main page