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B) The impact is accidental nuclear war

CSIS 1997

(Center for Strategic and International Studies, October 10, 1997, "Kremlin Kapitalism," http://www.ciaonet.org/pbei/csis/watch-97-99/98_188/)

“If the forces of organized crime are not stymied, Russia will complete its devolution into a criminal-syndicalist state,” warns a Russian Organized Crime Task Force report released last week by the CSIS Global Organized Crime Project. Composed of senior-level U.S. government representatives and private sector experts, the task force concluded that the Russian state and economy was coming under the control of (1) corrupt officials at all levels of the bureaucracy; (2) successful, full-time professional crime syndicate bosses; and (3) businessmen with a complete disregard for existing Russian law and Western norms of commerce. The report “dispels the widely held perception that Russia is a market economy run by a hot team of reformers,” explained Arnaud de Borchgrave, director of the CSIS Global Organized Crime Project, at a House International Relations Committee hearing on organized crime on October 1 (http://www.csis.org/hill/ts100197.html). More than 8,000 organized crime groups are now active in Russia, including 200 with ties to criminal counterparts in 50 countries. The Russian Interior Ministry (MVD) estimates that two-thirds of the Russian economy is under the sway of organized crime, including 40 percent of private businesses, 60 percent of state-owned enterprises, and more than half of the 1,740 banks. In announcing his seventh crackdown in six years, Russian President Boris Yeltsin recently admitted that “criminals have today brazenly entered the political arena and are dictating law, helped by corrupt officials.” Louis Freeh, director of the FBI, assumes that the Russian Mafia may soon be, if it’s not already, as big a threat in the United States as the old Cosa Nostra is thought to have been. At the House hearing, which was inspired by the release of the report, Freeh also testified that the Russian groups are very diverse: they’ve “hit the ground with gasoline excise tax fraud, and health fraud, as well as narcotics, extortion, and additional racketeering crimes.” According to the report, “Russian organized crime constitutes a direct threat to the national security interests of the United States by fostering instability in a nuclear power.” Russia’s armed forces are in shambles, riddled by corruption and chronically late wages—over 6,000 crimes were committed by the military in 1996. This leaves the military ripe for exploitation, presenting Russian organized crime groups with the uniquely dangerous opportunity to procure and traffic in nuclear materials. Testifying before the House National Security Subcommittee that same afternoon, task force director Frank Cilluffo warned that “in this atmosphere, the prospect for a criminal diversion of nuclear materials or an unauthorized or even an accidental nuclear weapons launch is at an all-time high." Russian organized crime groups are increasingly gaining a stranglehold on the state by promoting and exploiting corruption and the vulnerabilities inherent in a society in transition.

C)This causes full-scale nuclear escalation and the death of billions

Forrow Associate Professor of Medicine at Harvard University 1998

(Lachlan April 30 THE NEW ENGLAND JOURNAL OF MEDICINE, http://www.nejm.org/public/1998/0338/0018/1326/5.htm#)

Public health professionals now recognize that many, if not most, injuries and deaths from violence and accidents result from a predictable series of events that are, at least in principle, preventable.44,45 The direct toll that would result from an accidental nuclear attack of the type described above would dwarf all prior accidents in history. Furthermore, such an attack, even if accidental, might prompt a retaliatory response resulting in an all-out nuclear exchange. The World Health Organization has estimated that this would result in billions of direct and indirect casualties world.

Organized Crime Bad: Economy

Organized crime in financial institutions collapses the economy

Bliley, House Representative, 2000

(Tom July 13, 2000, Federal Document Clearing House Congressional Testimony, "TESTIMONY TEACHER RECRUITMENT AND RETENTION”)

This should come as no surprise--where there is money to be made, you will find organized crime. Being aware of such corruption should increase our vigilance. Organized crime on Wall Street threatens virtually every American--because it damages the integrity of our capital markets, the life blood of our economy. By infiltrating our markets, corrupt forces pose a very real threat to the prosperity this country is currently enjoying.

Organized crime collapses the Russian economy

CSIS 1997

(Center for Strategic and International Studies, October 10, 1997, "Kremlin Kapitalism," http://www.ciaonet.org/pbei/csis/watch-97-99/98_188/)
The report states that “at all levels of the Russian government, a blend of the more agile members at the top of the old nomenklatura, corrupt government officials, and mafia nouveau riches compete among themselves and with honest officials for control of instruments of state power.” Organized crime syndicates promote their own candidates into office, thereby acquiring parliamentary immunity. The report also reveals that Russia’s wealth has been plundered since the Soviet Union imploded, and tens of billions of dollars have been moved to safe havens in offshore banking centers. This capital flight is diverting scarce resources away from key sectors of the Russian economy. Even economic reform has played into the hands of organized crime: the principal beneficiaries of privatization—as conducted at auctions rigged in favor of pre-selected individuals or banks—have been the organized crime syndicates. Or, as Frank Cilluffo puts it, “the Communists were the only political party ever to get rich at their own funeral.” Arnaud de Borchgrave explains that “the big battles that remain to be fought will determine whether Russia follows the road to the rule of law, or one that leads to the consolidation of crime-dominated oligarchies that now have worldwide ramifications.” The comeback of reformers in Russia could help to avert an economic meltdown; however, the same business leaders who currently benefit from a criminalist state will have to come to terms with the long-term effects of their path if organized crime is to be controlled in Russia. CSIS Global Organized Crime Project Chairman William Webster, former FBI director, declares that this is a “seminal time where we can still do something.” The report concludes that Russia’s best hope is the rise of an independent and incorruptible legal and judicial system. This means much more than simply adding laws on the books.

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