DUKE UNIVERSITY COURSE, Spring 2014 COURSE NO.: SOC 651S/ECON542S COURSE TITLE Seminar Special Topic:
Social Changes, Market and Economics in China Instructor: Yi Zeng, Professor of Centre for Study of Aging and Human Development and Geriatrics Division, School of Medicine and Sociology Department, Duke University; Professor of China Centre for Economic Research, National School of Development, Peking University
(tel. 660-7554; Email: email@example.com)
Class meeting hours: Mondays 19:15PM – 21:45PM
Duke University West Campus Sociology/Psychology Building Room 329 (McKinney room).
Office Hours: 9:45-11:45 am, Thursdays.
Office: Room 1506 (in Duke Hospital South building, blue zone), Centre for Study of Aging and Human Development and Geriatrics Division, Duke University Medical School.
Prerequisites: There are no prerequisites. Both undergraduate and graduate students are welcome to take this course.
Synopsis of the Course Content
This is a course of cross-cutting by disciplines of Economics, Sociology and Public Policy on introduction of economics and social & institutional changes in China, with a focus on the recent periods after 1980. This course offers the up-to-date descriptive review, empirical data, and discussions on the historical background, current status and future perspectives of social changes, economic development, demographic transitions and public policies in China. This course is not a technical one; it focuses on substantial issues. Active classroom discussions among the students and instructor will be strongly encouraged.
Main Reference Textbook:
Justin Yifu Lin, Fang Cai, and Zhou Li (2003). The China Miracle: Development Strategy and Economic Reform (Revised), Hong Kong: Chinese University Press. ISBN 962-201-985-4
Other Reading Assignments:To be up-dated and assigned before each class; Readings with
* are required readings for both undergraduate and graduate students; readings with ** are required readings for graduate students, but optional for undergraduate students; readings without * are optional readings for all students
Midterm Examinations: take-home midterm
Term Papers: One final term paper of 10-15 pages (including tables, graphics and references) with double-space of the text on issues related to social changes, economics, population and public policy in China or another country or region in which the student is interested. The term paper should have a focus and to avoid talking about everything but nothing is clearly discussed.
Grade to be based on: classroom discussion/performance/attendance 40%; midterm take-home exam 15%; term paper 45%.
The final grade is given using the following categories: A+: 95+; A: 90-94; B+: 86-89; B:80-85; B-:75-79; C: 60-74, D: 40-59; F: <40
Course outline (Sept. 20, 2013 version; the course outline and readings will be updated in due course) The course will include 5 parts.
Part I. Background
Session 1 Introduction
Think about the fundamental questions to which this course will discuss such as:
Why China’s reform and economic development in the past two decades have been successful as a whole?
Why China’s reform and economic development have been slow in some areas and why some problems have recurred throughout the reform process?
Whether the momentum of China’s reform and economic growth can be sustained?
To understand these questions, we first review the Chinese historical background of economic growth and demographic revolution
Why the industrial revolution initialised in Europe in 18th century did not occur in China?
A brief introduction of China’s rapid economic growth in the past three decades;
* Justin Yifu Lin (1995) The Needham Puzzle: Why the Industrial Revolution Did Not Originate in China. Economic Development and Cultural Change; 43(2). (PDF file available at Duke blackboard course documents of this course).
* Chapter 1 of Justin Yifu Lin, Fang Cai, and Zhou Li (2003) The China Miracle: Development Strategy and Economic Reform (Revised), Hong Kong: Chinese University Press. ISBN 962-201-985-4 (Text book).
Session 2 Demographic revolution
Quick mortality decline since 1950s;
Baby booms in the1950s and 1960s (except 1959-61);
Rapid fertility decline since 1970s;
* Coale, A.J. (1981). Population trends, population policy and population studies in China. Population and Development Review, Vol. 7, no. 1, pp. 85-97. (Available at Duke blackboard)
* Posten Dudley L. and Toni Falbo (1992), Effects of the One-Child Policy on the Children of China. In: Dudley L. Poston, Jr. and David Yaukey eds. (1992). The Population of Modern China, Plenum Press, New York. pp. 427-444. (Reserved in the Perkins Circulation Desk)
Keyfitz, N. (1984). The population of China. Scientific American, Vol. 250, no. 2, pp. 38-47. (This item can be found through the journal of Scientific American stored in medical centre library)
Coale, A. (1984). Rapid population change in China, 1952-1982. Committee on Population and Demography, National Research Council, Report No. 27. Washington, D.C., National Academy Press. (Reserved in the Perkins Circulation Desk)
Banister, J. (1987). China's Changing Population. Stanford: Stanford University Press. 1987. (Reserved in the Perkins Circulation Desk)
Tien H. Yuan (1983). China: Demographic Billionaire. Population Bulletin, Vol. 38, no. 2. (special issue). (Perkins: 304.605 P831, B936x)
Zeng Yi. (1991). Family dynamics in China: A Life Table Analysis. The University of Wisconsin Press. Chapter 1 (Reserved in the Perkins Circulation Desk).
Session 3 Recent Demographic Challenges and Family Dynamics
1. New problems and challenges
Substantial changes in family structure and size.
Potential impacts of demographic changes on society, market and economic in China.
*Chu Junhong (2001) Prenatal Sex Determinantion and Sex-Selective Abortion in Rural Central China. Population and Development Review, Vol. 27, No. 2, pp. 259-281 (at Duke blackboard)
Hull, Terence H. 1990. Recent trends in Sex ratios at Birth in China, Population and Development Review, Vol. 16, No. 1:63-83. (at Duke blackboard)
Johansson, Sten and Ola Nygren. 1991. The Missing Girls of China: A New Demographic Account, Population and Development Review, Vol. 17, No. 1: 35-51. (at Duke blackboard)
*Zeng Yi, Tu Ping, Gu Baochang, Xu Yi, Li Bohua and Li Youngping (1993). An analysis on causes and implications of recent increase in sex ratio at births in China. Population and Development Review, Vol. 19, No. 2. (at Duke blackboard)
*Zeng Yi and Zhenglian Wang. 2003. Dynamics of Family and Elderly Living Arrangements in China: New Lessons Learned from the 2000 Census. The China Review, Vol. 3, No. 2: 95-119. (at Duke blackboard)
Part II. Planning economic system in 1950s, 1960s, and 1970s
Session 4 The old planning economic system
1. The leap-forward strategy and the formation of the planning economic system;
2. Collectivisation movements in rural and urban areas in 1950s;
3. The 1958 Great Leave Forward and its failure including famine 1959-61;
4. Economic performance in 1950s, 1960s, and 1970s;
* The text book Chapter 2 Section 2.1-2.5.
*Aoton, Basil, Kenneth Hill, Alan Piazza and Robin Zeitz. 1984. “Famine in China, 1958-1961”. Population and Development Review, Vol. 10: 613-45. (available at Duke Blackboard)
Lin, Justin Yifu. 1990. “Collectivization and China’s Agricultural Crisis in 1959-1961.” Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 98, No. 6, PP. 1128-52. (available at Duke Blackboard).
Session 5 Economic performance in 1950-1978 and an international comparison
1. The leap-forward development strategy leads to the trinity of the traditional economic system.
2. Performance of the traditional planning economy.
3. An international comparison of the traditional economic system.
4. An international comparison of leap-forward strategy.
*Text Book Chapter 2 Section 2.6 and Chapter 3
*Krueger, Anne O. “The Political Economy of the Rent-seeking Society”, American Economic Review, Vol. 64, No. 3 (June 1974), pp. 291-303 (available at Duke Blackboard)
*Mckinnon, R. I. “Gradual versus Rapid Liberalization in Socialist Economics: Financial Policies and Macroeconomic Stability in China and Russia Compared”, in Proceedings of the World Bank Annual Conference on Development Economics 1993. Washington, DC: The World Bank, 1993. (available Perkins Library: Stacks | 338.91 W927, P963x) **Shigeru Ishikawa. 1993. “China’s economic growth since 1949—An Assessment”, China Quarterly, 94 (June 1993). (available at Duke Blackboard)
Chow, Gregory.1985, “How the Chinese Economy works”, Chapter 2, in Gregory Chow: The Chinese Economy, New York: Harper&Row, Publishers: pp 1-76. (available Perkins Library: Stacks | 330.951058 C552, C539, 1987 ).
Part III. Institutional Reform, Economic Growth and their Impacts on Society Changes Session 6Rural institutional and economic reform
How was the rural institutional reform of household responsibility system initialised?
Rural institutional reform process and timetable.
Other economic reform and changes in rural areas since 1980.
* Textbook: Chapter 5, pp. 137-149; Chapter 6, pp. 183-185
* Justin Yifu Lin (1987). The household responsibility system reform in China: A peasant’s institutional choice. American Journal of Agricultural Economics 69(2), pp. 10-15 (available at Duke Blackboard).
* Schultz, T. Paul and Zeng Yi. 1999. “The Impact of Institutional Reform from 1979 to 1987 on Fertility in Rural China.” Chinese Economic Review 10: 141-60 (available at Duke Blackboard).
*Shi, Tianjian, 1999 "Economic Development and Election in Rural China," Journal of Contemporary China, Vol 8 (22): 425-42. (At Duke Blackboard)
William L. Parish (ed.) (1985). Chinese Rural Development: The Great Transformation. New York: An East Gate Book, M.E. Sharpe Inc. (Reserved Book at Duke Circulation Desk).
Session 7 The urban reform
Improvement of incentives and efficiency;
Correction of the industrial structure;
Exploiting comparative advantages.
Reform in the most recent years
The fundamental change from central planning economy system to the so called "socialist market economy system";
The most recent modification of the constitution and its implication;
Social security system reform: unemployment insurance, pensions, medical insurance, etc.
Housing reform: a commercialised housing market;
Unemployment and underemployment;
* Text book: pp. 149-201
** Fumio Itoh (ed.) 1997. China in the twenty-first century: politics, economy, and society. Read pp. 80-103 (Perkins Lib: 320.951 C539, 1997)
*The overview chapter by Osman Suliman in: Suliman, Osman (ed.). 1998. China’s Transition to a Socialist Market Economy. London: Greenwood, Quorum Books. (Perkins Lib: 338.951 C538, 1998).
Bruce L. Reynolds (1987). Reform in China: Challenges & Choices. New York: An East Gate Book, M.E. Sharpe Inc. Part I: past achievements, present challenges, and future policy choices. pp. 3-28. (Reserved Book at Duke Circulation Desk)
Session 8 Rural-urban relations
Rural-urban divisions and inequality;
Rural-urban migration and its impacts on economic growth;
Urbanization and its impacts on demographics and Chinese society.
*Zeng Yi and J. Vaupel. 1989. “Impact of Urbanization and Delayed Childbearing on Population Growth and Aging in China.” Population and Development Review 15: 425:445. (At Duke Blackboard)
*Zhao, Yaohui. “Labor migration and Earnings Differences: the Case of Rural China.” Economic Development and Cultural Change Vol. 47, No.4. (Jul 1999), pp.767-782. (At Duke Blackboard)
*Landry, John T. “Emerging markets: Are Chinese Consumers coming of age?” Harvard Business Review (Boston). Vol.76, No.3 (May/Jun 1998), pp.17. (At Duke Blackboard)
**Gao, Jun; Juncheng Qian; Shenglan Tang; BO Eriksson and Erik Blas. “Health equity in transition from planned to market economy in China.” Health Policy and Planning Vol. 17, Suppl.1.(Dec 2002), pp. 20-29. (At Duke Blackboard)
Gale, H. Frederick. “China’s Growing Affluence.” Amber Waves Vol.1, No.3 (Jun 2003), pp.14-21. (At Duke Blackboard)
Zhang, Kevin Honglin. “What explains China’s rising urbanization in the reform era?” Urban Studies (Edinburgh) Vol. 39, No.12 (Nov 2002), pp.2301-2315. (At Duke Blackboard)
Hannum, Emily. “Political change and the urban-rural gap in basic education in China, 1949-1990.” Comparative Education Review (Chicago). Vol. 43, No.2 (May 1999), pp. 193-211. (At Duke Blackboard)
Session 9 The impacts of reform on the social changes
Theoretical hypothesis and empirical study about how would the rural reform affect peasants' fertility behaviour;
Impacts of urban reform on young people’s marriage and fertility patterns;
Impacts of rural institutional reform on family structure, and kinship network;
3. Reforms catalyze the Chinese society.
*Schultz, T. Paul and Zeng Yi. 1999. “The Impact of Institutional Reform from 1979 to 1987 on Fertility in Rural China.” Chinese Economic Review 10: 141-60. (At Duke Blackboard)
*Nee, V. (1985). Peasants individualism. In William L. Parish (ed.) (1985). Chinese Rural Development: The Great Transformation. New York: An East Gate Book, M.E. Sharpe Inc. (Perkins: 307. 140951 C539, 1985)
* Justin Yifu Lin (1988). The household responsibility system in China’s agricultural reform: A theoretical and empirical study. Economic Development and Cultural Change 36 (Suppl 3), s199-s224 (At Duke Blackboard)
D. Gale Johnson (1990) The people's Republic of China: 1978-1990. San Francisco: ICS Press. Chapter 1, 3, 4, 7, 8, 9. (Reserved Book at Perkins Circulation Desk).
Part IV. Problems of the Reform, Strategies and 10 years of WHO Accession Session 10 Problems and new strategies with China’s reform
The cyclic nature of reform and development;
Difficulties in reform of state-owned-enterprises;
Non-performing loans and malpractice in financial system;
The aggravation of uneven regional development;
The potential of grain supply.
The deflation in China
The demand side of deflation;
Serious over-supply is the main cause of deflation;
The effects of excess capacity and deflation;
The new village movement and solution to deflation.
9. Possible new strategies for sustainable development
Coordination of the state-owned enterprises reform and other reforms;
Further reform financial system and prevention of financial crisis;
Rural development – The recent New Countryside Campaign;
Development of Western part of the country;
Exploiting comparative advantages to realize sustainable development.
* Text book, Sections 7.1, 7.2, 7.3, 7.4 of chapter 7; Chapter 8.
* Justin Yifu Lin, Cai Fang, and Li Zhou, “Competition, Policy Burdens, and State-owned Enterprise Reform”, American Economic Review, Vol. 88, No. 2 (May 1998), pp. 422-27 (Available at Duke Blackboard).
* Text book, Sections 7.5, 7.6 of chapter 7; Chapter 9.
* Brown, Lester R. 1997. Who will feed China? The Environmental Magazine. Jan/Feb 1997, Vol. 8, Issue 1, pp. 36-41. (At Blackboard)
Session 11China’s 10 years of WTO accession and reform, recent global financial crisis and the Chinese responses/influences
WTO accession and China’s agriculture;
WTO accession’s potential impacts on financial sector;
WTO accession and state-owned-enterprises’ reform;
Social, institutional and economic consequences of China’s joining WTO.
Recent global financial crisis and the Chinese responses/influences.
* Text book: Chapter 10.
* Hormats et al. 2001. Beginning the journey: China, the United States, and the WTO. (At Perkins Library: Call # 382.920951 B417, 2001)
** Lapres, Arthur. “The E.U.-China WTO Deal Compared with the US-China Agreement”, (At Blackboard)
Lin, Justin Yifu. “WTO Accession and Financial Market Reform in China”, The Cato Journal, Vol. 21, No.1 (Spring/Summer 2001), pp. 13-19. (At Blackboard)
-- a couple of recent references will be identified.
Part V: Future Perspectives of Socioeconomic Development in China Session 12Demographic windows of opportunities and challenges
Demographic dividends: opportunities in the next 20 years
Challenges: rapid population aging, low fertility and high sex ratio at birth.
*Zeng Yi and Linda George (2002). “Extremely Rapid Aging and the Living Arrangement of Elderly Persons: the Case of China.”. In: Living Arrangements of Older Persons, Population Bulletin of the United Nations, Special Issue Nos. 42/43, New York: United Nations.
*Hesketh, Therese, Li Lu, and Zhu Wei Xing. 2005. “The Effects of China’s One-Child
Family Policy after 25 Years,” New England Journal of Medicine, 353: 11.
*Wang, Feng and Mason, 2006. “Demographic dividend and prospects of economic
development in China, ” In: Zeng Yi, Li Ling, Gu Baochang, and Justin Yifu Lin (eds.).
Population and Economic Development in the 21stCentury in China (in Chinese). China
Social Science Academic Press. English version of this paper was presented at the U.N experts group meeting on “Social and economic implications of changing population age structure”, Mexico City, August 31-Sept. 2, 2005.
Session 13Future Perspectives of Social and economic development 1. Smooth transition from current strict fertility policy to a more relaxed policy of two-child with promotion of voluntary late-childbearing.
2. Properly deal with the issues and resolve the problems of rural-urban migrants
3. Rural old age insurance program – to build a new Great Wall in China.
*Greenhalgh, Susan and John Bongaarts. 1987. “Fertility Policy in China: Future Options,”
Science, March 6, 235 (4793): 1167-72.
*Koniak-Griffin, Deborah, C Turner-Pluta. 2001. “Health Risks and Psychosocial Outcomes
of Early Childbearing: A Review of the Literature,” Journal of Prenatal & Neonatal Nursing.
Levine, Judith A, Harold Pollack, and Maureen E. Comfort. 2001. “Academic and Behavioral Outcomes Among the Children of Young Mothers,” Journal of Marriage and Family, 63(2)
*Zeng Yi, 2007. “Options of Fertility Policy Transition in China.” Population and
Development Review. Vol. 33 No. 2, Pp. 215-246 (Heading article).
Additional information: Summary Biography of the instructor
Yi Zeng, born in Sept. 5, 1952, is a tenured Professor at the Center for Study of Aging and Human Development and Geriatric Division / Dept of Medicine of Medical School, and Institute of Population Research and Dept. of Sociology, Duke University. He is also a Professor at the China Center for Economic Research, National School of Development at Peking University in China, and Distinguished Research Scholar of the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (MPIDR) in Germany, and a foreign member of the Royal Netherlands Academy of Arts and Sciences. He received his doctoral degree from Brussels Free University in May 1986 while his Ph.D research was conduced at Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Research in 1984-1986. He conducted post-doctoral study at Princeton University in 1986-87. Up to August 2013, he has had 127 professional articles written in English published in academic journals or as book chapters in the United States and Europe; among them, 90 articles were published in anonymously peer-reviewed academic journals. He has had110 professional articles written in Chinese and published in China; among them, 87 articles were published in peer-reviewed Chinese academic journals. He has published twenty-four academic books, including ten books written in English (including four books published by Springer Publisher, one book by the University of Wisconsin Press and one book by Oxford EOLSS Publishers Co.Ltd). He has submitted 30 policy reports which were widely distributed by the relevant governmental or applied research institutions.
Yi Zeng has been awarded eleven national academic prizes and three international academic prizes. He has won the Dorothy Thomas Prize of the Population Association of America, the Harold D. Lasswell Prize in Policy Science awarded by the international journal Policy Sciences and Kluwer Academic Publishers, Award for 2011 AJPH Paper of the Year (AJPH: American Journal of Public Health, publication of American Public Health Association), the national prizes for advancement of science and technology awarded by the State Sciences and Technology Commission of China and the State Education Commission, the highest academic honor of Peking University: "Prize for Outstanding Contributions in Sciences," and the “Chinese Population Prize (Science and Technology)”, jointly awarded by nine ministries and seven national non-governmental associations in China. According to the search report, up to March 1, 2011, the internationally most important literature sources, such as SSCI (Social Science Citation Index) and SCI (Science Citation Index), indicate that Yi Zeng’s articles and books have been cited in 1,146 journal articles or books published outside of China by authors other than Yi Zeng; among these international citations, 665 refer to the work of Yi Zeng as the first author. According to the domestically most important literature sources, such as CSSCI (Chinese Social Science Citation Index) and Chinese Knowledge Network Citation Database, indicate that Yi Zeng’s articles and books have been cited in 971 journal articles or books published inside of China by authors other than Yi Zeng; among these domestic citations, 876 refer to the work of Yi Zeng as the first author. Yi Zeng is one of the authors of “High Impact Papers” worldwide in the period of 1981 -1998, as announced by International Scientific Institute (ISI) in September, 2000.