Cuba Neg A2 Democracy Adv



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A2 Cuban Economy Adv

1NC Frontline




1. Investments in Cuba won’t solve the economy


JAIME SUCHLICKI [one of the world’s foremost scholars on Latin America, is a professor of history at the School of International Studies at the University of Miami. He edits the Journal of Inter-American and World Affairs, consults for the U.S. government, and is the author of Mexico: From Montezuma to the Fall of the PRI and University Students and Revolution in Cuba] April 4, 2013DEMOCRACY, DEVELOPMENT AND INSTITUTIONS¶ A BLOG SPONSORED BY THE DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH CENTER¶ What if…the U.S. Ended the Cuba Travel Ban and the Embargo? by Jaime Suchlicki¶ http://devresearchcenter.org/2013/04/12/what-if-the-u-s-ended-the-cuba-travel-ban-and-the-embargo/#more-219
Ending the embargo and lifting the ban for U.S. tourists to travel to Cuba would be a major concession totally out of proportion to recent changes in the island. If the U.S. were to lift the travel ban without major reforms in Cuba, there would be significant implications:¶ Money from American tourists would flow into businesses owned by the Castro government thus strengthening state enterprises. The tourist industry is controlled by the military and General Raul Castro, Fidel’s brother.¶ American tourists will have limited contact with Cubans. Most Cuban resorts are built in isolated areas, are off limits to the average Cuban, and are controlled by Cuba’s efficient security apparatus. Most Americans don’t speak Spanish, have but limited contact with ordinary Cubans, and are not interested in visiting the island to subvert its regime. Law 88 enacted in 1999 prohibits Cubans from receiving publications from tourists. Penalties include jail terms.¶ While providing the Castro government with much needed dollars, the economic impact of tourism on the Cuban population would be limited. Dollars will trickle down to the Cuban poor in only small quantities, while state and foreign enterprises will benefit most.¶ Tourist dollars would be spent on products, i.e., rum, tobacco, etc., produced by state enterprises, and tourists would stay in hotels owned partially or wholly by the Cuban government. The principal airline shuffling tourists around the island, Gaviota, is owned and operated by the Cuban military.¶ Over the past decades hundred of thousands of Canadian, European and Latin American tourists have visited the island. Cuba is not more democratic today. If anything, Cuba is more totalitarian, with the state and its control apparatus having been strengthened as a result of the influx of tourist dollars.¶ A large influx of American tourists into Cuba would have a dislocating effect on the economies of smaller Caribbean islands such as Jamaica, the Dominican Republic, the Bahamas, Puerto Rico, and even Florida, highly dependent on tourism for their well-being. Careful planning must take place, lest we create significant hardships and social problems in these countries.¶ If the embargo is lifted, limited trade with, and investments in Cuba would develop. Yet there are significant implications.¶ Trade¶ All trade with Cuba is done with state owned businesses. Since Cuba has very little credit and is a major debtor nation, the U.S. and its businesses would have to provide credits to Cuban enterprises. There is a long history of Cuba defaulting on loans.¶ Cuba is not likely to buy a substantial amount of products in the U.S. Cuba can buy in any other country and it is not likely to abandon its relationship with China, Russia, Venezuela, and Iran to become a major trading partner of the U.S.¶ Cuba has very little to sell in the U.S.¶ Investments In Cuba, foreign investors cannot partner with private Cuban citizens. They can only invest in the island through minority joint ventures with the government and its state enterprises.¶ The dominant enterprise in the Cuban economy is the Grupo GAESA, controlled by the Cuban military. Most investments are done through or with GAESA. Therefore, American companies willing to invest in Cuba will have to partner mostly with the Cuban military. Cuba ranks 176 out of 177 countries in the world in terms of economic freedom. Outshined only by North Korea. It ranks as one of the most unattractive investments next to Iran, Zimbabwe, Libya, Mali, etc.¶ Foreign investors cannot hire, fire, or pay workers directly. They must go through the Cuban government employment agency which selects the workers. Investors pay the government in dollars or euros and the government pays the workers a meager 10% in Cuban pesos.¶ Corruption is pervasive, undermining equity and respect for the rule of law.


2. Tourism can’t solve the economy- limited gains


JAIME SUCHLICKI [one of the world’s foremost scholars on Latin America, is a professor of history at the School of International Studies at the University of Miami. He edits the Journal of Inter-American and World Affairs, consults for the U.S. government, and is the author of Mexico: From Montezuma to the Fall of the PRI and University Students and Revolution in Cuba] April 4, 2013¶ DEMOCRACY, DEVELOPMENT AND INSTITUTIONS¶ A BLOG SPONSORED BY THE DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH CENTER¶ What if…the U.S. Ended the Cuba Travel Ban and the Embargo? by Jaime Suchlicki¶ http://devresearchcenter.org/2013/04/12/what-if-the-u-s-ended-the-cuba-travel-ban-and-the-embargo/#more-219
Ending the embargo and lifting the ban for U.S. tourists to travel to Cuba would be a major concession totally out of proportion to recent changes in the island. If the U.S. were to lift the travel ban without major reforms in Cuba, there would be significant implications: Money from American tourists would flow into businesses owned by the Castro government thus strengthening state enterprises. The tourist industry is controlled by the military and General Raul Castro, Fidel’s brother. American tourists will have limited contact with Cubans. Most Cuban resorts are built in isolated areas, are off limits to the average Cuban, and are controlled by Cuba’s efficient security apparatus. Most Americans don’t speak Spanish, have but limited contact with ordinary Cubans, and are not interested in visiting the island to subvert its regime. Law 88 enacted in 1999 prohibits Cubans from receiving publications from tourists. Penalties include jail terms. While providing the Castro government with much needed dollars, the economic impact of tourism on the Cuban population would be limited. Dollars will trickle down to the Cuban poor in only small quantities, while state and foreign enterprises will benefit most. Tourist dollars would be spent on products, i.e., rum, tobacco, etc., produced by state enterprises, and tourists would stay in hotels owned partially or wholly by the Cuban government. The principal airline shuffling tourists around the island, Gaviota, is owned and operated by the Cuban military. Over the past decades hundred of thousands of Canadian, European and Latin American tourists have visited the island. Cuba is not more democratic today. If anything, Cuba is more totalitarian, with the state and its control apparatus having been strengthened as a result of the influx of tourist dollars. A large influx of American tourists into Cuba would have a dislocating effect on the economies of smaller Caribbean islands such as Jamaica, the Dominican Republic, the Bahamas, Puerto Rico, and even Florida, highly dependent on tourism for their well-being. Careful planning must take place, lest we create significant hardships and social problems in these countries. If the embargo is lifted, limited trade with, and investments in Cuba would develop. Yet there are significant implications.


3. Alt Cause - Plan can’t solve economy


AJ Delgado [Cuban American columnist, author, Harvard Law graduate]¶ April 13th, 2013¶ Bill Maher Ignorantly Rants Against The Cuban Embargo, Adding Himself To The List Of Useful Idiots¶ http://www.mediaite.com/tv/bill-maher-ignorantly-rants-against-the-cuban-embargo-adding-himself-to-the-list-of-useful-idiots/
Mention China, and you’ll soon here another embargo-opponent or simpleton (I know, I repeat myself) argument: “Look how capitalism is crushing Communism in China! It would have the same effect in Cuba!” I would advise proponents of this particular argument to back away slowly so as to preserve any future pretense of being somewhat well-read. Here’s why: even the most cursory overview of Chinese policy denotes a strong contrast with Cuba: unlike the Cuban regime, the Chinese government tolerates and even encourages a booming, entrepreneurial domestic market. That is why China has been able to thrive, while Cuba has not. An American embargo has nothing to do with Cuba’s economic failures — the regime’s own Soviet-style policies have destroyed its economy and even decades of trading with a myriad of nations has not solved its problems.


4. No Impact - Economic collapse is inevitable, the plan can’t overcome structural issues in the US marketplace


James Wood [a retired Country Manager for Citibank in three Latin American countries. At 71, James is devoted to analyzing markets and where our economy is going]¶ Jun 12 2012¶ http://seekingalpha.com/article/652661-the-unavoidable-u-s-reality-the-upcoming-economic-collapse
The US, and much of the world, faces an unavoidable reality. There must be a severe economic collapse before we can proceed with the next period of sustained economic growth. This scenario is based on fundamental economic theory and a long history of what happens when the current economic conditions persist and are worsening. This reality is of utmost importance to any investor except one with a very short-term investment horizon.¶ This unavoidable reality is clearly demonstrated by the fundamentally opposing policies of the American right and left. The right, represented by the Tea Party, has both the clearest policies and the least supportable views in terms of economic theory and the real history of the world. The Tea Party's economic plan is to lower taxes, primarily to the richest. To balance the budget, it plans to cut benefits, primarily to those most in need. This strategy will do severe damage to the pretense of a social safety network. A fundamental reason for cutting taxes to the rich is that they will invest and thereby enrich the whole community.¶ The Tea Party plan fails based on three critical parameters:¶ Classic economic theory.¶ Historical fact in similar circumstances.¶ Common sense.¶ First, let´s discuss classical economic theory. GDP (Gross Domestic Product) is the measure of how an economy is doing. GDP is the measure of our total annual income. When GDP goes up, people naturally tend to invest. When it goes down, people naturally tend not to invest. GDP is the sum of all spending by the people (the private sector) plus all the spending of the government (government sector) plus net exports (the net balance between exports and imports). If exports are greater than imports, the net balance adds to the GDP. If imports exceed exports, the net balance decreases the GDP.

1NC 1 Ext – Investments Fail




Calls for investment are a rouse – government cares more about control than economic growth


DAMIEN CAVE [foreign correspondent for The New York Times, he covers Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean.¶ From 2008 to 2010 he served as the Times’ Miami bureau chief, writing on a range of topics] ¶ November 19, 2012¶ Easing of Restraints in Cuba Renews Debate on U.S. Embargo¶ http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/20/world/americas/changes-in-cuba-create-support-for-easing-embargo.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0
“The sanctions on the regime must remain in place and, in fact, should be strengthened, and not be altered,” she wrote in an e-mail. “Responsible nations must not buy into the facade the dictatorship is trying to create by announcing ‘reforms’ while, in reality, it’s tightening its grip on its people.” Many Cubans agree that their government cares more about control than economic growth. Business owners complain that inspectors pounce when they see signs of success and demand receipts to prove that supplies were not stolen from the government, a common practice here. One restaurant owner in Havana said he received a large fine for failing to produce a receipt for plastic wrap.

1NC 2 Ext – No Solvency

A trade relationship won’t spark economic gains


JAIME SUCHLICKI [one of the world’s foremost scholars on Latin America, is a professor of history at the School of International Studies at the University of Miami. He edits the Journal of Inter-American and World Affairs, consults for the U.S. government, and is the author of Mexico: From Montezuma to the Fall of the PRI and University Students and Revolution in Cuba] April 4, 2013¶ DEMOCRACY, DEVELOPMENT AND INSTITUTIONS¶ A BLOG SPONSORED BY THE DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH CENTER¶ What if…the U.S. Ended the Cuba Travel Ban and the Embargo? by Jaime Suchlicki¶ http://devresearchcenter.org/2013/04/12/what-if-the-u-s-ended-the-cuba-travel-ban-and-the-embargo/#more-219
Ending the embargo and lifting the ban for U.S. tourists to travel to Cuba would be a major concession totally out of proportion to recent changes in the island. If the U.S. were to lift the travel ban without major reforms in Cuba, there would be significant implications:¶ Money from American tourists would flow into businesses owned by the Castro government thus strengthening state enterprises. The tourist industry is controlled by the military and General Raul Castro, Fidel’s brother.¶ American tourists will have limited contact with Cubans. Most Cuban resorts are built in isolated areas, are off limits to the average Cuban, and are controlled by Cuba’s efficient security apparatus. Most Americans don’t speak Spanish, have but limited contact with ordinary Cubans, and are not interested in visiting the island to subvert its regime. Law 88 enacted in 1999 prohibits Cubans from receiving publications from tourists. Penalties include jail terms.¶ While providing the Castro government with much needed dollars, the economic impact of tourism on the Cuban population would be limited. Dollars will trickle down to the Cuban poor in only small quantities, while state and foreign enterprises will benefit most.¶ Tourist dollars would be spent on products, i.e., rum, tobacco, etc., produced by state enterprises, and tourists would stay in hotels owned partially or wholly by the Cuban government. The principal airline shuffling tourists around the island, Gaviota, is owned and operated by the Cuban military.¶ Over the past decades hundred of thousands of Canadian, European and Latin American tourists have visited the island. Cuba is not more democratic today. If anything, Cuba is more totalitarian, with the state and its control apparatus having been strengthened as a result of the influx of tourist dollars.¶ A large influx of American tourists into Cuba would have a dislocating effect on the economies of smaller Caribbean islands such as Jamaica, the Dominican Republic, the Bahamas, Puerto Rico, and even Florida, highly dependent on tourism for their well-being. Careful planning must take place, lest we create significant hardships and social problems in these countries.¶ If the embargo is lifted, limited trade with, and investments in Cuba would develop. Yet there are significant implications.¶ Trade¶ All trade with Cuba is done with state owned businesses. Since Cuba has very little credit and is a major debtor nation, the U.S. and its businesses would have to provide credits to Cuban enterprises. There is a long history of Cuba defaulting on loans.¶ Cuba is not likely to buy a substantial amount of products in the U.S. Cuba can buy in any other country and it is not likely to abandon its relationship with China, Russia, Venezuela, and Iran to become a major trading partner of the U.S. Cuba has very little to sell in the U.S.

1NC 3 Ext – Alt Causes




Capitalist measures in Cuba Fail – Cuban politics


LN 5-31-13 (LiberationNews, No Author, “Cuba: Environmentally sustainable development is possible”, http://www.pslweb.org/liberationnews/newspaper/vol-7-no-7/cuba-environmentally-sustainable-development-is-possible.html)
Cuba’s 1976 Constitution established national sovereignty over the environment and the natural resources of the country. The National Commission for the Protection of the Environment was created that same year and protections for the environment have only grown. The economic crisis of the 1990s, caused by the destruction of the socialist camp and the tightening of the economic blockade imposed by the United States, led the government to search for new forms of land use and natural resources, the incorporation of environmentally friendly technology in rural agriculture and urban agricultural gardens, and better organization of agricultural cooperatives and land tenure. The use of many chemical pesticides was eliminated. All countries, including the United States, engage in environmental discourse, but economies based on capitalism cannot achieve sustainable development. Economies based on socialism can.

1NC 4 Ext – Impact Defense




Plan can’t overcome obstacles in US economy


Kevin Wixson [writing for Survival magazine] 24 March 2013¶ Economic Collapse is it Inevitable?¶ ¶ http://survivalist.com/economic-collapse-is-it-inevitable/
When it comes to discussing the topics people these days are “prepping” for we encounter a multitude of reasons and subsets within the community. Some are getting prepared for what they believe will be a total collapse of the power grid, others are preparing for an EMP strike and yet still more are getting geared up for an extinction level event. Within the spectrum of “prepping,” we also find those that fear a complete meltdown of the world economy, and as it turns out they may be onto something quite significant. Recent news reports coming from abroad indicate that Russia’s President Vladimir Putin has issued a strong warning to Russian citizens and companies to pull their money from all institutes of Western banking systems in preparation for an economic collapse that many people fear will have a devastating global impact.¶ How close are we to seeing an unprecedented raiding and theft of privately owned bank accounts and financial assets? It would appear that the time is short and the answer may be swifter than we are prepared for. Speaking about EU banksters, Peoples Trust Australia has this to report:¶ “Unbowed by the misery they have inflicted upon the entire continent, however, and in spite of Russian warnings, European Union officials hardened their stance against Cyprus today by announcing that if the Cypriot government did not allow the raiding of private bank accounts by Monday they would be forced to destroy their banks, which remain closed for the seventh straight day and have no signs of opening soon.”¶ But what has this got to do with us here in America? How would it be possible for an economic collapse to occur here in what is considered one of the greatest and wealthiest countries on the planet? Quite honestly folks the hand writing has been on the wall for several decades and is finally approaching what some are dubbing the “zero” hour for an economic collapse to occur.¶ “Even worse may be what is in store for the Americans, who on 31 January lost an unlimited US government guarantee that was granted on over $1.5 trillion of their bank deposits during the 2008 financial crisis to assure skittish customers that their cash was safe.”¶ True, this “unlimited government guarantee” refers to accounts held by businesses, non-profit organizations and municipalities, however the trickle down effect will be felt around the country and the international community. Even more troubling may be the concerns surrounding the reason for Obama’s recent visit to Israel.



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