Cosmic Rays and Space Weather Lev I. Dorman

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8.2. Cosmic ray on-line one-hour data using for forecasting of dangerous geomagnetic storms accompanied with Forbush-decreases

Thus, FD events can be used as reliable indicators of health- and safety-related harmful geomagnetic storms. For a practical realization of forecasting hazardous geomagnetic storms by means of FD indicators, it will be necessary to get data from most CR stations in real-time. (now main part of data are available only after about one month). Therefore, it is necessary to found a special Real-Time Cosmic Ray World Data Center to transform the cosmic ray station network in a real-time International Cosmic Ray Service (ICRS) (Dorman et al. 1993). We present here basic ideas of the organization of such real-time data collection and processing, for providing a reliable forecast-service of FD and related dangerous disturbances of geomagnetic field. The main features observed in CR intensity before the beginning of FD that can be used for FD forecasting are the following (see Fig. 8.3):

1. CR pre-increase (Blokh et al., 1959; Dorman, 1959; see review in Dorman, 1963a,b). The discovery of this effect in 1959 (Blokh et al., 1959) stimulated to develop the mechanism of galactic CR interactions with interplanetary shock waves (Dorman, 1959; Dorman and Freidman, 1959) and further analyses (Dorman 1995, Belov et al. 1995) showing that this effect is related to particle interaction and acceleration by interplanetary shock waves;

2. CR pre-decrease (McCracken and Parsons, 1958; Fenton et al 1959; see review in Dorman, 1963a,b). This effect was analyzed recently both theoretically (Dorman et al., 1995) and experimentally on the basis of the network of CR stations (Belov et al. 1995). The pre-decrease effect can be due to a magnetic connection of the Earth with regions (moving from the Sun) with reduced CR density; this lower density can be observed at the Earth along the actual direction of IMF lines (Nagashima et al. 1990, Bavassano et al. 1994);

3. CR fluctuations. Many authors found some peculiarities in behavior of CR fluctuations before FD: changes in frequency spectrum; appearance of peaks in spectrum at some frequencies; variations in some special parameter introduced for characterizing the variability of fluctuations. Though the obtained results are often contradictory (Dorman et al. 1995), sometimes CR fluctuations appear as reliable phenomena for FD prediction, as expected from additional Alfven turbulence produced by kinetic stream instability of low-energy particles accelerated by shock waves (Berezhko et al. 1997);

4. Change in 3-D anisotropy. The CR longitudinal dependence changes abruptly in directions close to usual directions of interplanetary magnetic field and depends on the character and source of the disturbance. These effects, appearing much before Forbush decreases (up to 1 day) may be considered as predictors of FD. Estimation of CR anisotropy vector may be done by the global survey method described in Belov et al. (1997).

Fig. 8.3. Scheme of mechanisms of possible precursory effects in CR
In Fig. 8.4 we show an example of such estimation done for the 9.09.1992 event represented as a longitude-time distribution. The grey circles mark the CR intensity decrease and white circles mark the CR intensity increase (in both cases bigger diameter of circle means bigger amplitude of intensity variation). The vertical line marks the time of Sudden Storm Commencement (SSC).

One can see that the pre-increase, as well as the pre-decrease, occurs some hours (at least, 15-20 hours) before the SSC. As it was shown recently by Munakata et al. (2000), the CR pre-increase and pre-decrease effects can be observed very clear also by multidirectional muon telescope world network. They investigated 14 “major” geomagnetic storms characterized by and 25 large storms characterized by observed in 1992-1998. It was shown that 89% of “major” geomagnetic storms have clear precursor effects what can be used for forecasting (the probability of exact forecasting increased with increasing of the value of storm).

Fig. 8.4: Galactic cosmic ray pre-increase (white circles) and pre-decrease (grey circles) effects before the Sudden Storm Commencement (SSC) of great magnetic storm in September 1992, accompanied with Forbush-decrease.

We suppose that this type of analysis on the basis of on-line one-hour neutron monitor and muon telescope data from the world network CR Observatories can be made in near future automatically with forecasting of great geomagnetic storms. This important problem can be solved, for example by the ICRS, what will be based on real-time collection and exchange through Internet or FTP of the data from about all cosmic-ray stations of the network (the possible scheme of ICRS working is shown in Fig, 8.5 and Fig. 8.6).

Then, computerized data analysis and interpretation will be done on the basis of modern theories listed in (1-4). It will be necessary to use also related spacecraft data in real time: cosmic ray variations in small and very small energy regions, interplanetary magnetic field and solar wind data. For this purpose neutron monitor stations of the network should have a data collection time of 1 minute and 1 hour. The organization of ICRS and continue automatically forecast will provide necessary information to space agencies, health authorities, road police and other organizations to apply the appropriate preventive procedures.

Fig. 8.5. Supposed scheme of exchange data between collaborated CR Observatories in the frame of ICRS.

Fig. 8.6. Output information on space weather and dangerous situations of different levels from ICRS to collaborated organizations.

9. Conclusion

The described above International Program for continue CR on-line one-minute and one-hour data exchange in real time scale, continue monitoring by using on-line CR data of space weather phenomena and forecasting of dangerous situations for people and technology in space, in the magnetosphere, and in atmosphere, need at least several years for realization, but, from my opinion, we need to start to go step by step along this way what is very interesting from science view, and very important from practice view. In more details this research will be reflected in monographs Dorman (2003a,b).

10. Acknowledgements

My great thanks to Prof. Norma Sanchez for invitation to take part in very interesting and important International NATO ASI School Daniel Chalonge, for fruitful discussions and very kind hospitality.

I would like cordially to thank H.S. Ahluwalia, J. Allen, V. Kh. Babayan, A.V. Belov, E.B. Berezhko, J.W. Bieber, A. Chilingaryan, M. Duldig, E.A. Eroshenko, N. Iucci, K. Kudela, K. Munakata, Y. Muraki, M. Murat, M. Panasyuk, M. Parisi, N.G. Ptitsyna, L.A. Pustil’nik, M.A. Shea, D.F. Smart, A. Sternlieb, M. Storini, J.F. Valdes-Galicia, G. Villoresi, V.G. Yanke, I.G. Zukerman for interesting discussions, and Prof. Yuval Ne’eman for constant interest and support of ICRC and ESO.

This research was partly supported by the grant INTAS-0810.

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