Catastrophic anthropogenic warming is happening – observable data and a scientific consensus



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Warming Adv

Catastrophic anthropogenic warming is happening – observable data and a scientific consensus


Kaku 11. (Michio, PhD from Berkeley University. Author of Ph.D. level textbooks. “Physics of the Future.” http://213.55.83.52/ebooks/physics/Physics%20of%20the%20Future.pdf)

By midcentury, the full impact of a fossil fuel economy should be in full

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New Jersey. With transportation flooded, the economy grinds to a halt.



We can’t wait for certitude to act because it will be too late


Dennis Patrick O'Hara and Alan Abelsohn 11, Assistant professor of ethics as well as the Director of the Elliott Allen Institute for Theology and Ecology at the University of St. Michael's College and assistant professor in the Department of Family and Community Medicine, and the Dalla Lana School of Public Health and lecturer in the Centre for Environment, at the University of Toronto (Ethics & the Environment, Volume 16, Number 1, Spring)
Another disclaimer that has been used to justify delayed and inadequate responses to climate change

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certitude, scientific or otherwise, contradicts the very pattern of our existence.

Emissions are reversible but the window is closing.


Fiona Harvey 11 is an environmental correspondent for Guardian, “World headed for irreversible climate change in five years, IEA warns,” 11/9, http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/nov/09/fossil-fuel-infrastructure-climate-change
The world is likely to build so many fossil-fuelled power stations, energy

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temperatures to 2C of warming] will be closed forever," said Birol.

Warming magnifies the risk of global conflict


Kaku 11. (Michio, PhD from Berkeley University. Author of Ph.D. level textbooks. “Physics of the Future.” http://213.55.83.52/ebooks/physics/Physics%20of%20the%20Future.pdf)

. FLOODING BANGLADESH AND VIETNAM A report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change isolated

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methane gas to be released, causing a runaway cycle of global warming.



CO2 independently causes extinction


Westenskow 8. (Rosalie, UPI Correspondent, United Press International, “Acidic oceans may tangle food chain.” 06/06/08. http://www.upi.com/Energy_Resources/2008/06/06/Acidic_oceans_may_tangle_food_chain/UPI-84651212763771/print/)

**citing Scott Doney, PhD from MIT in Chemistry, AND CITING, David Adamec, head of Ocean Sciences at NASA with a PhD in Meteorology from Naval Postgraduate School

Increased carbon levels in ocean water could have devastating impacts on marine life, scientists

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one year, potentially leading to extinction for some species, Adamec said.

3 Internal Links

First is Renewable Generation

FITS key to optimize market for renewables


Masterson 10. (Crystal D., Third Year student at University of Oklahoma College of Law, American Indian Law Review, “Wind-Energy Ventures in Indian Country: Fashioning a Functional Paradigm.” 2010. 34 Am. Indian L. Rev. 317 Lexis.)

The feed-in tariffs require that every utility connect and give priority to all

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renewable energy" n265 and the potential for less expensive electricity altogether. n266


Electricity sector is key polluter


Mormann 11 (Felix, German JD and JSD from University of Passau School of law, as well as an LMM from UC BerkeleySchool of Law and is a research Fellow at Stanford’s Steyer Center for Energy Policy and Finance, writing for Economic Law Quarterly, “Requirements for a Renewables Revolution.” 05/02/11. http://www.boalt.org/elq/documents/elq38_4_03_2012_0808.pdf)

Renewable sources of energy are relevant not only to electricity generation but also to other

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this Article focuses on the use of renewables for the generation of electricity.


Only a federal feed-in tariff causes a clean energy transition and ends patchwork policies.


Chris Nelder 11, Columnist for SmartPlanet, 11/9, http://www.smartplanet.com/blog/energy-futurist/why-america-needs-a-feed-in-tariff/174
Given the obvious success of FiTs as a policy tool in Europe, one must

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rest of the world pulls rapidly ahead in the race to energy transition.

National FIT is modeled globally and solves resource shortages


Lynch 8/9/12, Advisor to Principal Solar Inc, Feed-in Tariffs: The Proven Road Not Taken – FierceEnergy, http://www.fierceenergy.com/story/feed-tariffs-proven-road-not-taken/2012-08-09#ixzz24aVQZwDO

The U.S. needs a nationwide FIT to kick-start the renewable

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foreign oil, while helping to decrease the associated massive annual cash drain.


Independently, Resource shortages escalate to global conflict


Heinberg 12. (Richard, Senior Fellow of the Post Carbon Institute, Energy Bulletin, “Geopolitical implications of ‘Peak everything’” January 10th 2012. http://energybulletin.net/stories/2012-01-10/geopolitical-implications-%E2%80%9Cpeak-everything%E2%80%9D)

From competition among hunter-gatherers for wild game to imperialist wars over precious minerals

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—will most probably be economic and ecological ruin accompanied by political chaos.



Second is Natural Gas

The US will be locked in to natural gas unless renewable alternatives are developed—Natural Gas causes methane release and fast warming


Ted Nordhaus and Michael Shellenberger 12 are the authors of Break Through: From the Death of Environmentalism to the Politics of Possibility, Feb 27 (http://e360.yale.edu/feature/nordhaus_shellenberger_beyond_cap_and_trade_a_new_path_to_clean_energy/2499/)

A funny thing happened while environmentalists were trying and failing to cap carbon emissions in

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fossil fuels. There simply is no substitute for making clean energy cheap.



FITs prevents volatile natural gas prices


Blake 09, Maria, the Washington Monthly, “The Rooftop Revolution”, http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/features/2009/0903.blake.html
You might expect that a system like this—one that allows countless independent producers

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cut your use of natural gas, bringing prices down across the board.

Natural Gas volatility kills the chemical industry

Stones 9 (Edward, Director of Energy Risk Dow Chemical Company in a presentation to the Committee on Energy and Natural Resources, “The Role of Natural Gas in Mitigating Climate Change” 10/28/9 http://www.energy.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/files/serve?File_id=9b7877b6-e616-76f1-3513-0c3fe4cda514)

When it comes to natural gas and climate policy, Dow favors policies that will

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energy costs in the US remain globally competitive and avoid economically devastating volatility.


Extinction

Baum 99 – editor-in-chief of the American Chemical Society's Chemical and Engineering News [Rudy M. Baum, C&E News, “Millennium Special Report,” 12-6-99, http://pubs.acs.org/hotartcl/cenear/991206/7749spintro2.html] // LDK

The pace of change in today's world is truly incomprehensible. Science is advancing on

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water by the end of the 1980s or 1990s have proven utterly wrong. 



While I do not count myself as one of the technological pessimists who see technology

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up in real public fear of genetic manipulation and corporate control over food.

Third is the Green Economy,

Green economy key to address climate change – feed-in tariffs solve through investment and can meet the global energy demand


Kofetsky 2008, “DEUTSCHLAND OBER ALLES: WHY GERMAN REGULATIONS NEED TO CONQUER THE DIVIDED U.S. RENEWABLE-ENERGY FRAMEWORK TO SAVE CLEAN TECH (AND THE WORLD)”, https://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&pid=gmail&attid=0.1&thid=13955f78a3a8375d&mt=application/pdf&url=https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/?ui%3D2%26ik%3Db62fd2ee4a%26view%3Datt%26th%3D13955f78a3a8375d%26attid%3D0.1%26disp%3Dsafe%26zw&sig=AHIEtbRX3GpQtnAMY29zWdsBnFGFuWibbA

Global warming., threats to energy Security, and rising energy costs have become unavoidable

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are dim for advancing clean tech to sufficiently meet the current energy concerns.


Clean Tech is key to growth


Jenkins 2011, Jesse, ”Director of Energy and Climate Policy, Breakthrough Institute”, http://energy.nationaljournal.com/2011/10/is-america-losing-the-clean-en.php#2102285
There are a host of reasons why targeted policies and smart public investments in emerging

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Making clean energy cheap and fully competitive should become our nation’s rallying focus.

Economic stagnation leads to nuclear war.


Merlini, Senior Fellow – Brookings, 11 [Cesare Merlini, nonresident senior fellow

AND


-Secular World? Survival, 53:2, 117 – 130]

Two neatly opposed scenarios for the future of the world order illustrate the range of

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theocratic absolutes, competing or converging with secular absolutes such as unbridled nationalism.


Global economic crises cause war -- strong statistic support


Royal, '10 (Jedediah, Director of Cooperative Threat Reduction Program -- DOD, Economics of War & Peace: Legal and Political Perspectives, ed. Goldsmith & Brauer, p. 213-15)

Less intuitive is how periods of economic decline may increase the likelihood of external conflict

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such, the view presented here should be considered ancillary to those views.



Plan Text

The United States federal government should establish a feed-in tariff that creates long-term purchase contracts for new qualifying facilities that use wind power, solar power, or wind and solar power for energy production to ensure a reasonable rate of return. 




Water Advnatage

Dependence on large power plants are the prime cause.


UCS, Union of Concerned Scientists, June 11 (Energy and Water at Risk, ucs.org)
ACROSS THE UNITED STATES, our demand for electricity is colliding with our need for

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felt by the power sector, its customers, and other water users.

Solar and wind are key – consume less water than any other energy source.


Gail Rajgor 9/19/12, Renewable Energy Focus Writer, http://www.renewableenergyfocus.com/blog/2012/9/19/water-use-in-electricity-generation-the-sobering-facts-that-make-a-case-for-wind-and-solar-power/651.aspx
Water use in electricity generation: the sobering facts that make a case for wind

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and offshore projects, range from just 55 to 85 gallons per MWh.

Energy water shortages deplete the Ogallala.


UCS, Union of Concerned Scientists, June 11 (Energy and Water at Risk, ucs.org)
A matter of time. The high-stakes competition for access to groundwater among

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century18), demand for both water and energy in the region may increase.

Ogallala depletion causes extinction from biodiversity loss.


ENS Quoting Ehrlich 97 (Paul Ehrlich is a bit of a hippy at Stanford University, Environmental News Service, http://news.stanford.edu/pr/97/970207ehrlich.html)
Ehrlich coined the term "brownlash" to describe the efforts of those trying to

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implementing steps to sustain its life-support systems and thus preserve civilization.

Stretched water systems coming now leads to extinction and accesses every major impact


Walton 12 (Brett, worked on a NASA-affiliated research project on water data and as a member of a State Department project on climate change and water management in Central Asia, “National Security Assessment: Water Scarcity Disrupting U.S. and Three Continents” 4/3/12 http://www.circleofblue.org/waternews/2012/world/national-security-assessment-water-scarcity-disrupting-u-s-and-three-continents/)

The world ’s demand for fresh water is growing so fast that,

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on how well the challenge of global water can be addressed. ”



Also causes a quick collapse in food prices.


Ashworth 87 [William, Award winning author and environmental scholar, “The Late, Great Lakes”, Wayne State University Press]

The Ogallala Aquifer is a U.S. national treasure- a genuine liquid

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dramatically- and food availability would be nowhere near what it is today.


Food price spikes trigger global instability in every hotspot.


Jeff Horwich and Rob Bailey 12 Interim host of Marketplace Morning Report & Royal Institute of International Affairs, http://www.marketplace.org/topics/world/us-drought-could-have-global-impact-food-prices
Bailey: Well America is an agricultural superpower as well as a traditional global superpower

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to rise and this could actually have implications for China, quite seriously.

WWIII.


Calvin, ‘98 (University of Washington Theoretical Neurobiologist, Jan, Atlantic Monthly)
The population-crash scenario is surely the most appalling. Plummeting crop yields would

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a Third World War—but Europe’s vulnerability is particularly easy to analyze.

And, billions die.


Brown, ‘5 (Earth Policy Institute President, http://www.earth-policy.org/Books/Out/)
“Many Americans see terrorism as the principal threat to security,” said Brown,

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For them, it is the next meal that is the overriding concern.”


2AC


The grid’s just too damn old – it’s about to go

GAO 9, “Defense Critical Infrastructure: Actions Needed to Improve the Identification and Management of Electrical Power Risks and Vulnerabilities to DOD Critical Assets”, October, http://www.gao.gov/htext/d10147.html
There are currently a variety of mechanisms in place that may help to mitigate the

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affect DOD assets and potential measures to address them, see appendix II.
Economic interdependence doesn’t solve---Chinese belligerence causes miscalc and crisis escalation

Medcalf & Heinrichs 11 - Rory Medcalf is Director of the International Security Programme at the Lowy Institute, Sydney. Raoul Heinrichs is Sir Arthur Tange Scholar at the Strategic and Defence Studies Centre, Australian National University, and editor of the Lowy Institute Strategic Snapshot series, June 27, 2011, “Asia’s Maritime Confidence Crisis,” online: http://the-diplomat.com/2011/06/27/asia%E2%80%99s-maritime-confidence-crisis/?print=yes

To the casual observer, recent security tensions in Asian waters might seem a storm

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nuclear weapons, this petty posturing wouldn’t lead to great-power war?



Yet such wishful thinking ignores the real dangers of Asia’s China-centric maritime incidents

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ramming of a Japanese customs vessel near the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu islands.

Though major power tensions have eased somewhat in 2011, encounters have continued. Chinese

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its ally Manila – prompting Chinese warnings about fanning flames and getting burned.



At the weekend, Sino-US and Sino-Vietnamese talks seem to have

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relations among major powers, with dangerous implications for regional peace and stability.

Lovins is a two-time college dropout without a degree

Adams 07


Rod Adams, Pro-nuclear advocate with small nuclear plant operating and design experience. Former submarine Engineer Officer. Founder, Adams Atomic Engines, Inc., Atomic Insights, December 1, 2007, "Blast from the past from a "clean coal" advocate – Amory Lovins", http://atomicinsights.com/2007/12/blast-from-the-past-from-a-clean-coal-advocate-amory-lovins.html
One of the great ironies in today’s America is that a two time college drop

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1976 by the Council on Foreign Relations, Inc. (November 1977).
SMR production is quick

Freed 10


Josh Freed, Director of the Third Way Clean Energy Program, Elizabeth Horwitz, Policy Advisor at Third Way’s Clean Energy Program, Jeremy Ershow, Third Way Clean Energy Program, Sept 2010, Thinking Small On Nuclear Power, http://content.thirdway.org/publications/340/Third_Way_Idea_Brief_-_Thinking_Small_On_Nuclear_Power.pdf
Several U.S. companies are in the advanced stages of developing small reactors

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reactors could be deployed within a decade domestically22 and go global soon after.

Alaskan missile defense will be rendered ineffective because it’s connected to the grid


Clayton, 12

(CSM Staff Writer, 4/25, Weakness in Systems used by Pentagon Power Grid, http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/2012/0425/America-s-Stuxnet-Weakness-found-in-systems-used-by-Pentagon-power-grid)


An amateur enthusiast has found evidence that hackers could exploit a security vulnerability in the

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power plant provides power to National Missile Defense Authority facilities on the island.


Energy insecurity collapses Alaskan missile defense—vital to solve ICBM threats


Begich, 9

(The Honorable Mark Begich-US Senator from Alaska, “Alaska's Strategic Role in the Defense of the United States and the Vital Role of Missile Defense

9/10, http://www.heritage.org/research/lecture/alaskas-strategic-role-in-the-defense-of-the-united-states-and-the-vital-role-of-missile-defense)
Over the past six years, the military has run 34 hit-to-

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New Mexico, Alaska -- what I call the Rocky Mountain Western states.

NMD failure leads to extinction


Lambakis, 7

(Sr. Analyst-National Institute for Public Policy & Editor-Comparative Strategy, PhD-Catholic University, Missile Defense From Space, 2/1, http://www.hoover.org/publications/policy-review/article/6124)


The ballistic missile threat to the United States, its deployed forces, and allies

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could jeopardize the very viability of society and the survival of the nation.

SMR ensures spin-offs

Butler 10


Glen, Lieutenant Colonel. The nuclear option,

http://www.armedforcesjournal.com/2010/11/4847032/


As the overall expertise in SMR technology grows, additional capabilities such as expeditionary and

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… and the military should enthusiastically seize the opportunity to lead the way.

2ac procurement




Financial incentives induce behaviors using cash – that includes power purchasing


Webb 93 – lecturer in the Faculty of Law at the University of Ottawa (Kernaghan, “Thumbs, Fingers, and Pushing on String: Legal Accountability in the Use of Federal Financial Incentives”, 31 Alta. L. Rev. 501 (1993) Hein Online)
In this paper, "financial incentives" are taken to mean disbursements 18 of

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accountability apply to differing degrees depending upon the type of incentive under consideration.

By limiting the definition of financial incentives to initiatives where public funds are either disbursed

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In effect, these programs are assistance, but they are not incentives.



Paying for electricity is an incentive


Doris 12 – National Renewable Energy Laboratory (Elizabeth, “Policy Building Blocks: Helping Policymakers Determine Policy Staging for the Development of Distributed PV Markets,” Paper to be presented at the 2012 World Renewable Energy Forum, 5/13-5/17, http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy12osti/54801.pdf)
3.3 Market Expansion

This stage of policy development targets the development of projects and includes both incentives that

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the design and implementation of effective market incentives. Specific policy types include:



• Incentives. In the context of this framework, incentives are defined as direct

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direct capital investment, but instead prioritizes reduction in pay-back period.

• Production incentives provide payment for electricity produced from the distributed electricity. These are

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incentives have the potential to be invested in projects that do not materialize).



Feed-in-Tariffs. This incentive type reduces investment risk by providing fixed payments for projects based on the levelized cost of renewable energy generation. This (among other design characteristics) distinguishes feed-in-tariffs from production-based incentives, which are based on monetizing the value of the electricity to the grid or the value to the electricity purchaser.

• Removing Siting Restrictions or Ensuring Broad Market Access. Siting restrictions can be stipulated

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date, market development has not been limited by these types of regulations.



• Streamlined Permitting. Permitting for solar facilities has traditionally been the jurisdiction of localities

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, so it is not currently considered a primary policy for developing markets.


Precision – our definition’s from the DoE


Waxman 98Solicitor General of the US (Seth, Brief for the United States in Opposition for the US Supreme Court case HARBERT/LUMMUS AGRIFUELS PROJECTS, ET AL., PETITIONERS v. UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, http://www.justice.gov/osg/briefs/1998/0responses/98-0697.resp.opp.pdf)
2 On November 15, 1986, Keefe was delegated “the authority, with

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or his delegate(s).” Pet. App. 111-113.

No limits explosion – we agree to buy power from SMR’s, not the reactors themselves – solves their weapons laundry list




They overlimit-this aff is clearly T-tons of teams are reading it-they undermine strategic affs like procurement-otherwise w’d always lose to states.




Water scarcity collapses Europe


Nitish Priyadarshi 12, lecturer in the department of environment and water management at Ranchi University in India, “War for water is not a far cry”, June 16, http://www.cleangangaportal.org/node/44
The distribution of watercreate around the world.

Extinction


Bruton, 1

(Former Irish, PM-October, “joint committee on European affairs, parliament of Ireland,” http://www.irlgov.ie/committees-02/c-european affairs/future/page1.htm)


2.5 As the Laeken Declaration put it, "Europe needs to shoulder its responsibilities in the governance of globalisation" adding that Europe must exercise its power in order "to set globalisation within a moral framework, in other words to anchor it in solidarity and sustainable development".

2.6 Only a strong European Union is big enough to create a space

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, some of which now have more spending power than many individual states.



2.7 These tasks are too large for individual states.

2.8 Only by coming together in the European Union can we ensure that humanity, and the values which make us, as individuals, truly human, prevail over blind global forces that will otherwise overwhelm us.



Reasonability –good is good enough



2AC States




2AC States-



Perm: do both-shields the link
Perm: do the cp

States solves none of the case-

A) Grid advantage-DOD purchase of SMR energy is key to allow them to island their own bases-states can’t change how the DOD relies on power

B) Commercialization: only the DOD can ensure commercialization-only DoD power purchasing agreements create long term certainty which ensure SMR development.

C) States also don’t control nuclear power-the NRC does

Expertise – DoD contractors oversee tech development from blueprint to factory to base – that’s cohen
NRC kills solvency

Andres and Breetz 11

Richard Andres, Professor of National Security Strategy at the National War College and a Senior Fellow and Energy and Environmental Security and Policy Chair in the Center for Strategic Research, Institute for National Strategic Studies, at the National Defense University, and Hanna Breetz, doctoral candidate in the Department of Political Science at The Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Small Nuclear Reactorsfor Military Installations:Capabilities, Costs, andTechnological Implications, www.ndu.edu/press/lib/pdf/StrForum/SF-262.pdf


It should be emphasized that none of the small reactor designs currently under consideration for

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as the technical, financial, and regulatory hurdles have been adequately resolved.
50 state fiat bad

:  1 - illogical --- no states implement unified energy policies

2 - aff ground - cant weigh offense against cps that fiat out of the aff with generic evidence

3 - makes the debate about federalism which applies to every topic instead of the core issues that face energy policy -- that hurts relevant decision making skills

counterinterp they get a states cp if it has a specific solvency advocate to the aff and mechanism-

federalism da solves their offense

DoD procurement professionals will ignore the CP–only fiat overcomes bureaucratic reluctance

Warwick 8

W.M. Warwick, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Dept. of Energy, 2008, Purchasing Renewable Power for the FederalSector: Basics, Barriers, and Possible Options, www.pnl.gov/main/publications/external/technical_reports/PNNL-16485.pdf
To date, DOD has not used 10 USC 2394 or 10 USC 2922 (

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within a day), this process may be too unwieldy to be effective.
No one else has enough buildings

CSPO 10, Consortium for Science, Policy and Outcomes at ASU, “four policy principles for energy innovation & climate change: a synthesis”, June, http://www.catf.us/resources/publications/files/Synthesis.pdf
Buildings account for 40 percent of U.S. energy consumption and represent a

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an extent far beyond that of the private sector or other federal agencies.
Empirics and bureaucratic support

Jeffrey Marqusee 12, Executive Director of the Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program (SERDP) and the Environmental Security Technology Certification Program (ESTCP) at the Department of Defense, “Military Installations and Energy Technology Innovation”, March, http://bipartisanpolicy.org/sites/default/files/Energy%20Innovation%20at%20DoD.pdf


Although they receive less attention, DoD’s efforts in the area of facilities energy can

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on the higher level of support and resources reserved for mission related activities.

2AC Nuclear Trade-off



Ev about renewables solving-say it’s less compared to standard nuclear-

Doesn’t turn case-SMRs prevent desalination
nuclear power’s inevitable worldwide –causes cascading prolif

John P Banks and Charles K Ebinger 11, John is a fellow with the Energy Security Initiative at the Brookings Institution, Charles is senior fellow and director of the Energy Security Initiative at the Brookings Institution, “Introduction: Planning a Responsible Nuclear Future” in “Business and Nonproliferation”, googlebooks


Nuclear energy is a twentieth-century innovation but until recently has not spread beyond

AND


reprocessing. This is a major challenge for a regime already under stress.

Species adapt – gene diversity


Ian Thompson et al., Canadian Forest Service, Brendan Mackey, The Australian National University, The Fenner School of Environment and Society, College of Medicine, Biology and Environment, Steven McNulty, USDA Forest Service, Alex Mosseler, Canadian Forest Service, 2009, Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity “Forest Resilience, Biodiversity, and Climate Change” Convention on Biological Diversity

Concerns have been expressed that predicted cli- mate changes (IPCC 2007)

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which were characterized by relatively rapid climate change (Huntley and Webb 1988).


Water scarcity collapses Latin America


Gamini Seneviratne 7, Nuclear News’s Vienna Correspondent, “Research projects show nuclear

desalination economical”, April, http://www.ans.org/pubs/magazines/nn/docs/2007-4-3.pdf


As in most regions of the world, Latin America, and particularly Argentina,

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and energy production in Puerto Deseado and other cities with water scarcity problems.

Goes global and nuclear


Rochlin 94 (James Francis, Professor of Political Science at Okanagan University College. “Discovering the Americas: the evolution of Canadian foreign policy towards Latin America,” p. 130-131)
While there were economic motivations for Canadian policy in Central America, security considerations were

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resolution, such as Contadora, as will be discussed in the next chapter

2AC Elections




Obama win is locked in—too many routes to victory


Robert Shrum, Daily Beast, 10/26/12, Robert Shrum: Why Obama Will Win, www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2012/10/26/robert-shrum-why-obama-will-win.html

Obama’s strategists knew the Romney spin was and is as ephemeral as the air it’s

AND

cycle of spin about the impending, even inevitable Romney presidency is ending.



A “close race” in the numbers doesn’t affect chances of victory

Silver 10-31-12

Nate, Oct. 31: Obama’s Electoral College ‘Firewall’ Holding in Polls



http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/01/oct-31-obamas-electoral-college-firewall-holding-in-polls/#more-36981
There were 12 polls published on Wednesday among Iowa, Nevada, Ohio and Wisconsin

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tally of the number of electoral votes that Mr. Obama is accumulating.
Even in a decline in approval and loss of popular vote irrelevant

Silver 10-31-12

Nate, Oct. 31: Obama’s Electoral College ‘Firewall’ Holding in Polls



http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/01/oct-31-obamas-electoral-college-firewall-holding-in-polls/#more-36981
Suppose, however, that Mr. Obama were to tie Mr. Romney in

AND


still win. Conversely, Mr. Romney has few chances to win unles

s the state polls are systematically wrong.



No impact to reduced turnout

Nate Cohn, New Republic Election Expert, Part-Time Georgetown Coach -- his articles go through a TNR editing process and are available for all on his blog, he has been profiled on New York Magazine and MSNBC, 10/1/12, Obama’s College Voter Trump Card, www.tnr.com/blog/electionate/107974/obamas-college-voter-trump-card


Even if turnouttheir cause since 2008.
One policy won’t impact environmental turnout

Neil Munro, Daily Caller, 8/30/2011, Obama still has green energy vote for 2012, dailycaller.com/2011/08/30/obama-still-has-green-energy-vote-for-2012/?print=1


But there’s little evidence … I’m afraid he won’t,” said Zarlin.
Obama and DoD action on renewables now

Colman 12

Zack Colman, The Hill, 8/7/12, White House to seek $7B in green energy contracts for military, thehill.com/blogs/e2-wire/e2-wire/242593-army-announces-renewable-energy-contracts-as-white-house-continues-green-push
The White House announcedfederal lands in Nevada.

Incentives now


Kramer 12

David Kramer, Physics Today, Sept 2012, Romney, Obama surrogates spell out candidates’ energy policies, www.physicstoday.org/resource/1/phtoad/v65/i9/p20_s1


Both candidates favor to expedite approval.

New information won’t impact swing voters


Chris Cillizza, WaPo, 10/9/12, Who are the “undecided” voters? And what the heck are they waiting for?, www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2012/10/09/who-are-the-undecided-voters-and-what-are-the-heck-are-they-waiting-for/
Even if you agree with Ayres, …of the two campaigns.

Plan shields controversy


Appelbaum 12 Binyamin, Defense cuts would hurt scientific R&D, experts say, The New York Times, 1-8, http://hamptonroads.com/2012/01/defense-cuts-would-hurt-scientific-rd-experts-say

Sarewitz, who studies the government's role in promoting innovation, said the Defense Department

AND

find ways to reduce one of its largest budget items, energy costs.



New military spending swings Florida and other battlegrounds

Thompson, 12


(Political Columnist-Forbes, “The Florida Effect: How Military Votes Could Hand Romney the White House,” 8/21, http://www.forbes.com/sites/lorenthompson/2012/08/21/the-florida-effect-how-military-votes-could-hand-romney-the-white-house/print/)
Much has been written about the wrangling and irregularities that surrounded Bush’s controversial victory —

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tenth of the 270 Electoral College votes candidates need to secure the presidency.
Plan swings Florida—gets Hispanic votes

Whitman, 12

(former EPA administrator and New Jersey governor, is the co-chair of the Clean and Safe Energy (CASEnergy) Coalition and Karen, president of Hispanic Elected Local Officials and a member of the CASEnergy Coalition, "Nuclear energy = green jobs, economic growth in Fla., beyond", 6/22, articles.orlandosentinel.com/2012-06-22/opinion/os-ed-nuclear-energy-florida-jobs-062212-20120621_1_nuclear-energy-green-jobs-hispanic-community)

We all know how critical Florida is to the outcome of this year's election.

AND


-owned suppliers and businesses are among key beneficiaries of this economic infusion.

Nimby’s backwards for nuclear

NEI 11, Nuclear Energy Institute, “Plant Neighbors—And a Lot of Them—Favor Use and Expansion of Nuclear Energy”, Fall, http://www.nei.org/resourcesandstats/publicationsandmedia/insight/insightfall2011/plant-neighborsand-favor-use-and-expansion-of-nuclear-energy/
An overwhelming majority of residents within 10 miles of America’s nuclear energy facilities favor the

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facility. Respondents were evenly split among Democrats, Republicans and Independents.
Both have pressuring policies toward China

Rizzi 12

(Warren, BA in IR and fellow @ a university in northeast China and writer for policymic, “China is Hoping Mitt Romney Loses in 2012 Election “ Jan 2012, http://www.policymic.com/articles/3398/china-is-hoping-mitt-romney-loses-in-2012-election)


This approach will hamper the relationship because as China’s confidence grows, government leaders and

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foreign policy is simply unrealistic unless Congressman Ron Paul pulls a stunning upset.

China-bashing won't kill relations - it's just election-year rhetoric, past bashing disproves

Flanagan 11/2/12 (Ed, NBC News, "Suspicion of US rife as White House contenders batter China," http://behindthewall.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/11/02/14798765-suspicion-of-us-rife-as-white-house-contenders-batter-china?lite)
"There are plenty of other U.S. politicians who have built their

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don't think there is any essential difference between the two," he said.

Ohio not key

Rubin 10/31/12


Jennifer Rubin, staff writer, Washington Post, October 31, 2012, "Winning independents spell a Romney win?", http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/right-turn/post/winning-independents-spell-a-romney-win/2012/10/31/26129820-2376-11e2-8448-81b1ce7d6978_blog.html
The media has focused, not surprisingly, on the traditional bellwether state of Ohio

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Wisconsin. (Romney and Ryan will both be going there this week.)


Relations resilient despite Romney


Loiko 12

(Sergei – prominent Russian rights activist, “THE WORLD; FOREIGN EXCHANGE; Russian rights activist is wary of Putin” June 29, 2012, Los Angeles Times, MAIN NEWS; Foreign Desk; Part A; Pg. 3)


What do you think of the fate of the reset in the Russian-U

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. We will survive this difficult period we always experience in election years.

Plan accesses impact
Romney’s all talk---he’d work with Russia

Gasyuk 12 (Gasyuk, Rossiyskaya Gazeta’s Washington D.C. correspondent, 6-13, “Romney keeps the gloves off”, http://rbth.ru/articles/2012/06/13/romney_keeps_the_gloves_off_15854.html)

Given the sharp disagreements between the United States and Russia on Syria, which is



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observers believe he would take a more realistic approach to handling bilateral ties.


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