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RUSSIAN CRIME GANGS HAVE ENGAGED IN MASSIVE FOREIGN EXPANSION, INCLUDING CONSIDERABLE ACTIVITY IN THE USA
Arnaud de Borchgrave; The Washington Times, July 25, 1997, Pg. A19, HEADLINE: Ignoring Russia's crisis of crime , acs-VT99

Russia's 200 largest crime gangs (out of some 8,000 groups that operate throughout the former Soviet republics) are now global conglomerates. The 26 principal syndicates have established a presence in the United States, where they negotiated division of labor arrangements with American, Sicilian, Colombian and Mexican criminal organizations. FBI Director Louis Freeh has testified before congressional committees that these clandestine groups have established working relationships with counterparts in 50 other countries, up from 29 countries in 1994.


RUSSIAN MAFIA TERRORIST THREAT IS BEING COMBATED
RUSSIA AND THE USA ARE WORKING TOGETHER TO FIGHT INTERNATIONAL CRIME

THE INDIANAPOLIS NEWS, July 7, 1997 EDITORIAL; Pg. A04, HEADLINE: Partners against crime acs-VT99

"Partners. " Twenty years ago, the word would not have been used to describe the relationship between the United States and Russia. Back then, the buzz was about who would blow whom off the map first. And the foreign policy of choice was described by the acronym M.A.D. (Mutual Assured Destruction). Then the Berlin Wall fell, as the foundational weaknesses of Soviet communism became apparent even to the communist rulers. And the rest is history. Today, both countries are channeling their resources away from killing each other to ruling the world. Not only are they partners in space, but also partners in fighting crime. International crime, that is.
TERRORISM IS ON THE DECLINE IN THE WORLD -- A 25 YEAR LOW
John M. Deutch, former director of the CIA, Foreign Policy, September 22, 1997; Pg. 10; HEADLINE: Terrorism; the possibility of the use of more sophisticated weapons acs-VT99

International terrorism has declined steadily since the late 1980s. Last year represented a 25-year low, with reported incidents down from a peak of 665 in 1987 to 296 in 1996. Although the United States' unique position as a political, economic, and military world leader will always make it a choice target for terrorists, statistics reveal that nations everywhere share this burden. In 1996, less than 25 percent of reported terrorist incidents targeted the United States or its citizens abroad. More than 30 other countries were victimized, with some of the worst attacks occurring in Great Britain, Israel, Peru, and Sri Lanka.

NATIONALIST FORCES ARE NOT A MAJOR THREAT TO RUSSIA’S FUTURE
AGAIN AND AGAIN RUSSIA HAS NOT GIVEN IN TO POWERFUL NATIONALIST INFLUENCES IN THE COUNTRY
Leon Aron, resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, The Weekly Standard, April 20, 1998: Pg. 23, HEADLINE: THE REMARKABLE RISE OF DEMOCRATIC RUSSIA , acs-VT99

In Russia, too, the nationalist Left, known as the "national patriots," has continually urged pugnacity in foreign policy. Since 1995, the nationalists have enjoyed a plurality in the Duma, the lower house of parliament. Indeed, early in 1996, the Duma actually voted to annul the Belavezhskie agreements of 1991, which formalized the dissolution of the Soviet Union. Such actions elicit a deafening chorus of support from the flagships of the leftist- nationalist media -- Pravda, Sovetskaya Rossia, and Zavtra, with a combined daily press run of over half a million -- and from the nearly 300 pro-Communist local newspapers.

Yet even when President Boris Yeltsin has been handed opportunities to propitiate the nationalists and reap a political windfall, he has passed them up -- as he did in the case of NATO expansion. After much bluster, Yeltsin chose to sign the NATO- Russia Founding Act and to accommodate the United States and its partners, rather than reprise the Cold War even rhetorically. " More than once, the East and the West have missed opportunities to reconcile," Yeltsin said in February 1997 when the final negotiations with NATO got underway. "This chance must not be missed." Gennady Zyuganov, leader of the nationalist opposition and chairman of the Russian Communist party, meanwhile, was calling the Founding Act "unconditional surrender" and a "betrayal of Russia's interests."
RUSSIAN PUBLIC DOESN’T CARE ABOUT THE THREAT FROM THE WEST, AND NO NATIONALIST POPULIST MOVEMENT WILL BE CREATED BECAUSE OF ANTI-USA SENTIMENT
MICHAEL R. GORDON, The New York Times, May 2, 1998, Section A; Page 6; HEADLINE: NATO Is Inching Closer, But Russians Don't Blink // acs-VT99

Much of the Russian public is too consumed with the daily economic grind to care. Like many Americans, Russians have turned inward since the end of the cold war. Russia's biggest challenges are the payment of back wages, tax reform and other social and economic concerns, not foreign policy. Public opinion surveys have shown that half of those polled are indifferent about NATO enlargement. Those that have a view, however, tend to be negative.

The temperate Russian response minimizes the risk that a populist could rise to power on a tidal wave of anti-American sentiment.
NATIONALISM CAN’T REALLY TAKE HOLD IN RUSSIA BECAUSE IT AUTOMATICALLY EXCLUDES TOO MUCH OF THE POPULATION
Holger Jensen, international editor of the Rocky Mountain News, The Fresno Bee, September 29, 1997, Pg. B7, HEADLINE: U.S still searching for Russian doctrine in post-Cold War era acs-VT99

Nationalism also wouldn't do, at least not the kind preached by xenophobic legislators and the Russian Orthodox Church, since it excludes a quarter of the population -- especially those living in 20 ethnic republics -- who are neither Slavic Russians nor Orthodox Christians.


RUSSIAN CITIZENS ARE DETERMINED TO REJECT COMMUNIST AUTHORITARIANISM OR HARD-LINE NATIONALISM
David Remnick, Pulitzer Prize winning author on Russia, 1997; RESURRECTION: The Struggle for a New Russia, p. 367 , acs-VT99

Not least in Russia's list of advantages is that its citizens show every indication of refusing a return to the maximalism of communism or the xenophobia of hard-line nationalism. The idea of Russia's "separate path" of development is increasingly a losing proposition for communists and nationalists alike. The highly vulgarized versions of a national idea -- Zyuganov's national bolshevism or the various anti-Semitic, anti-Western platforms of people like Aleksandr Prokhanov -- have repelled most Russian voters, no matter how disappointed the), are with Yeltsin. Anti-Semitism, for example, has no political attraction, as many feared it would; even Lebed, who has betrayed moments of nationalist resentment, has felt it necessary to apologize after making various racist comments. He will not win as an extremist. Rather his appeal is to the popular disgust with the corruption, violence, and general lack of integrity associated with the Yeltsin

government.
RUSSIA IS TOO WEAK TO EVEN BEGIN TRYING TO ENFORCE ITS NATIONALIST ASPIRATIONS
Amos Perlmutter, professor of political science and sociology American University, The Washington Times, May 26, 1998, Pg. A17, HEADLINE: A new Russian foreign policy? acs-VT99

To begin with, the effort to "restore" Russia's status in the international system is more fictional than real. As a weak state, Russia is in no position to fulfill Mr. Primakov's and other nationalist orientations.


NATIONALISM CAN BE PRODUCTIVE "CIVIC NATIONALISM" NOT EXCLUSIONARY ETHNIC NATIONALISM
Bruce Parrott, Prof. Russian & East European Studies at Johns Hopkins Univ., 1997; DEMOCRATIC CHANGES AND AUTHORITARIAN REACTIONS IN RUSSIA, UKRAINE, BELARUS, AND MOLDOVA, p. 10 , acs-VT99

Whether linked to the collapse of an established state or not, manifestations of nationalism and efforts to democratize can affect each other in very different ways. Careful observers have distinguished between two types of nationalism: inclusionary "civic" nationalism, which is compatible with the observance of individual rights, and exclusionary ethnic nationalism, which tends to subordinate such rights to the collectivist claims of the nation."


PREVIOUS RUSSIAN ELECTIONS SHOW THAT NATIONALIST FEELING CAN BE USED TO PROMOTE A VIABLE DEMOCRATIC FUTURE
Carl Linden, Prof. Intl. Affairs George Washington Univ., 1997; RUSSIA AND CHINA ON THE EVE OF A NEW MILLENNIUM, p. 126-127, acs-VT99

Russians now had a genuine choice to make in a real, not sham election. They were torn between aversion to anarchic conditions in a time of troubles and fear of a return to stifling despotism. The result was tension between Russia's venture in democracy and the revival of its historic national sentiment. Boris Yeltsin's efforts to reconcile the two movements bore fruit in the election's outcome.

After Yeltsin, the prospects for a democratic Russia will turn on whether the country's leadership continues the effort to harmonize Russian patriotism and democracy for the sake of civil peace and the common good, or, conversely, whether Russian leaders who take the helm will drive the two apart in the name of imperial power and glory. In any case, the election of 1996 will serve to caution future leaders that the Russian people will not easily yield up their newly acquired political right.
NATIONALIST ELEMENTS IN THE RUSSIAN LEGISLATURE ARE NO MORE DANGEROUS THAN AMERICAN NATIONALISTS IN CONGRESS
F. Seth Singleton, Prof. Political Science Pacific Univ., 1997; THE FOREIGN POLICY OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION, p. 122 , acs-VT99

Some Westerners persist in seeing Russian nationalism as sinister, but in fact it now resembles the often irrational nationalism fed by electoral democracy in other places, for example the HelmsBurton law in the United States. In 1996 Russian voters utterly rejected ultranationalist Vladimir Zhirinovskii, who won only 5.6 per cent of the votes in the first round of the presidential poll.


NO COUP WILL TAKE PLACE IN RUSSIA
THE COURSE OF REFORMS IN RUSSIA IS IRREVERSIBLE -- GOVERNMENTS WILL CHANGHE PEACEFULLY AND WITHOUT CRISIS
Judith Matloff, Chicago Sun-Times, March 24, 1998, Pg. 6, HEADLINE: Politics as usual in Russia acs-VT99

"There is no governmental crisis in the country," ousted Prime Minister Viktor Chernomyrdin said after losing the job he had held since 1992. "This is a natural and routine process of renewing power. One thing is clear: The course of reforms in Russia is irreversible."

Yeltsin said he needed a fresh government to re-energize economic reforms, which he said were moving too slowly, jeopardizing the future of democracy in Russia.
NO COUP WILL TAKE PLACE IN RUSSIA, AS NO GROUP CAN BE CONFIDENT OF SUCCESS
Thomas Remington, Prof. Political Science at Emory, 1997; DEMOCRATIC CHANGES AND AUTHORITARIAN REACTIONS IN RUSSIA, UKRAINE, BELARUS, AND MOLDOVA, p. 117, acsVT99

Social power has' become sufficiently plural, however, that few groups can be sure that they would succeed if they bid to seize power by force: both the 1991 and 1993 coup attempts failed. Many organized political actors are therefore likely to calculate that they are better off playing by the rules in the hopes of improving their positions for the future. After enough rounds, their behavior would become mutually selfreinforcing.


MILITARY RULE IS THE LEAST LIKELY POST COMMUNIST AUTHORITARIAN OUTCOME
Bruce Parrott, Prof. Russian & East European Studies at Johns Hopkins Univ., 1997; DEMOCRATIC CHANGES AND AUTHORITARIAN REACTIONS IN RUSSIA, UKRAINE, BELARUS, AND MOLDOVA, p. 7 , acs-VT99

As of the mid-1990s, direct military rule seemed the least likely postcommunist authoritarian outcome. Historically, one-party states have proven less susceptible to military coups than have other forms of authoritarianism.


MILITARY IS RELUCTANT TO GET TOO INVOLVED IN POLITICS
Bruce Parrott, Prof. Russian & East European Studies at Johns Hopkins Univ., 1997; DEMOCRATIC CHANGES AND AUTHORITARIAN REACTIONS IN RUSSIA, UKRAINE, BELARUS, AND MOLDOVA, p. 7-8 , acs-VT99

Ruling communist parties exercised especially close civilian control over their military professionals, and this heritage of subordination appears to have shaped military behavior in most postcommunist countries. The rare episodes in which the armed forces have intervened collectively to affect the selection of national leaders have usually been precipitated by "demand pull" from feuding politicians eager to defeat their rivals rather than by any military desire to rule . That said, it should be noted that irregular military forces and militias have played a sizable role in the politics of some postcommunist countries, especially those parts of the former Soviet Union and the former Yugoslavia that have become embroiled in warfare. In a number of countries the parlous economic and social condition of the regular military has facilitated transfers of weapons and personnel to irregular military forces. Although irregular forces have caused a change of government leadership in only a few cases, such as Georgia and Azerbaijan, they frequently have had a strong effect on the political balance inside their "host" states, whether those states are nominally democratic or authoritarian in character .


A MILITARY GENERAL WILL NOT SUCCEED YELTSIN
The Economist, February 14, 1998, [SECTION: World Politics and Current Affairs-, EUROPE, Pg. 49. HEADLINE: Russia's part-time president\\jan]VT99

The prospect of a general in the Kremlin is still, thankfully, a distant one. The bankers and media tycoons who secured victory for Mr Yeltsin in 1996 are busily eyeing up the civilian candidates to succeed him. Most are thought likely to rally behind Mr Cher-no -myr- 1 din -though last week Vladimir Gus-in-sky, who runs both a bank and a television station, declared his support for Gri-gory Yav-lin-sky, leader of Yab-lo-ko, a social-democratic party, in the parliamentary elections next year that will precede the presidential race. Yuri Luzh-kov, the mayor of Moscow, and Boris Nem-tsov, a first-deputy prime minister, are also plausible presidential candidates.


NO SINGLE POLITICAL EVENT WILL DICTATE THE FUTURE OF RUSSIA -- IT IS AN ON-GOING PROCESS
NO PARTY OR ELECTORATE EXISTS TO PRODUCE THE KIND OF DREAM RUSSIA SOME AUTHORS IMAGINE
EDWIN G. DOLAN, president of the American Institute of Business and Economics in Moscow, International Herald Tribune, April 15, 1998, Pg. 9, Russia Today , acs-VT99

The problem is not that democracy in Russia is still shaky. Democracy in Russia is working: Russia's elected leaders reflect the thoughts of the voters on the important issues of the day. There is no political party in Russia today that represents the kind of changed Russia that Mr. Friedman dreams of. The votes are not there to support such a party.


REALLY IMPORTANT CHANGES AND DECISIONS ARE MADE BY INDIVIDUAL RUSSIANS IN AN ON GOING PROCESS OF POLITICAL CHANGE, NOT BY COUPS OR A SINGLE ELECTION
Grigory Yavlinsky; Russian economist and the leader of Yabloko, a democratic, reformist political party, Foreign Affairs, May, 1998 / June, 1998; Pg. 67, HEADLINE: Russia's Phony Capitalism acs-VT99

Unlike previous choices in recent Russian history, the decision will not be made on a single day by a coup or an election. Rather, it will evolve through the many decisions made by Russia's millions of people, leaders and ordinary citizens alike, over the coming years. Even President Boris Yeltsin's sacking of much of his cabinet in March, while deeply disturbing, was one more bump along the road, not the end of the journey. Nevertheless, the route chosen will be no less important than the choices made earlier in the decade in its effect on the society in which our children and grandchildren live.


ELECTION IN 2000 WILL BE A THREE-WAY RACE, POSTRUING WILL BE ESSENTIAL
IN THE NEXT ELECTION, IT WILL BE REFORMERS VS. NATIONALISTS VS. COMMUNISTS
David Remnick, Pulitzer Prize winning author on Russia, 1997; RESURRECTION: The Struggle for a New Russia, p. 364 , acs-VT99

If Yeltsin dies sooner rather than later, his circle will either follow the letter of the constitution and go forward with presidential elections after three months or it will find an excuse to avoid them. The latter choice would be unforgivable, and would go a long way toward negating the limited progress since 1991. Russia has yet to prove it can undergo a peaceful and orderly transfer of power-one of the most crucial tests in the development of a democracy. If the government does go forward with elections, however, the likely combatants would include Chernomyrdin, Moscow mayor Yuri Luzhkov, General Lebed, and communist leader Gennady Zyuganov.


THE NEXT ELECTIONS WILL NOT JUST BE BETWEEN REFORMERS AND COMMUNISTS, BUT WILL INVOLVE OTHER MAJOR PLAYERS
EDITORIAL, Sacramento Bee, December 27, 1997, Pg. B7, HEADLINE: RELYING ON A MORTAL YELTSIN MAKES BAD POLICY acs-VT99

In any event, Russian politics no longer present a binary choice between the Communist Old Guard and Yeltsin. Other faces and forces will dominate the next elections. Russian society has moved beyond the model of trickle-down stability that Washington assumes still prevails.


NATIONALIST LUZHKOV AND COMMUNIST ZYUGANOV ARE THE MOST LIKELY OPPONENTS TO REPLACE YELTSIN
Georgi Shakhnazarov, the Soviet Academy of Political Science, The Daily Yomiuri, August 18, 1997, SECTION: Pg. 6, HEADLINE: INSIGHTS INTO THE WORLD/Boris Nemtsov: Yeltsin's heir apparent? acs-VT99

The most dangerous rivals, however, will be those who did not receive Yeltsin's blessing but who are nonetheless capable of winning the presidency without it. Today, Moscow Mayor Yuri Luzhkov and the Communist leader Zyuganov are contenders, but there is always a chance that a new star might suddenly rise over Russia's political horizon.


RUSSIAN CRITICISM OF THE USA WILL INCREASE, BUT IT IS ALL ABOUT POSTURING FOR THE 2000 ELECTION
Leon Aron, resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, The Weekly Standard, April 20, 1998: Pg. 23, HEADLINE: THE REMARKABLE RISE OF DEMOCRATIC RUSSIA , acs-VT99

In addition, we can expect a growing rhetorical shrillness in the next two years, as the Ministry of Foreign Affairs strives to please the contenders in the 2000 presidential election -- all of whom seem far more susceptible than Yeltsin to the nationalist temptation. Russian behavior in the latest Iraq crisis, when a clearly disengaged Yeltsin mouthed a bizarre line about World War III, is a foretaste of things to come.


LEBED AS NATIONALIST CANDIDATE
CONTINUING USA-RUSSIA DISAGREEMENTS MAY PAVE THE WAY TO A DANGEROUS LEBED PRESIDENCY IN 2000
Tad Szulc, Los Angeles Times, May 24, 1998, Part M; Page 1; HEADLINE: FOREIGN POLICY; THE YEAR OF LIVING DANGEROUSLY acs-VT99

* Russia may be one of the greatest problems for the United States today and into the new century. In securing, for no strategically compelling reason, the admission of Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic into the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, the administration gratuitously antagonized Russia at a time when Moscow is agonizing over its destiny. Small wonder, then, that Russian policy under Foreign Minister Yevgeny M. Primakov frequently defies U.S. positions while striving to rebuild Russian I influence. Moscow has not gone along with Washington's desires to press the Serbs over Bosnia and Kosovo, and Vajpayee over India's nuclear tests. The Russian Parliament refuses to ratify the 1993 arms-reduction treaty with the United States. Washington and Moscow already are at odds over control of the Caspian Sea oil. Rising Russian nationalism under these conditions may well lead to the election, as president, of Gen. Alexander I. Lebed, who has aspirations to be a modern Peter the Great.


LEBED IS NOT INTERESTED IN A VIOLENT OVERTHROW OF YELTSIN. HE WANTS TO BECOME PRESIDENT THROUGH A LEGITIMATE POLITICAL PROCESS
Yuri Kovalenko, January 21, 1998 [HEADLINE: General Lebed Counts His Soldiers.Russian Press Digest\\jan]VT99

Assessing his chances, Lebed said he was pleased that his rating remained stable ("second or third"), though today he is "formally no one." His aim is to build up his own political movement to take over power "peacefully and legitimately." "I am not interested in putsches, coups and other such silly things," he said. As for his possible allies, he pointed at Yabloko leader Grigory Yavlinsky. A Lebed - Yavlinsky alliance is quite possible, he noted, though Yavlinsky himself is not especially enthusiastic about the idea. At a grassroots level, however, this alliance is a fait accompli, he added. Moscow Mayor Yuri Luzhkov, also cited by many as Lebed's possible ally, has refused to cooperate. "But one should understand him," Lebed explained. "Luzhkov has to maneuver on a very thin ice."


LEBED OR THE NATIONALISTS COMING TO POWER WILL TURN THE PERSIAN GULF INTO A NUCLEAR BATTLEGROUND
David Broder, syndicated columnist for The Washington Post, The Times-Picayune, May 26, 1998; Pg. B07, HEADLINE: REVIVING THE NUCLEAR NIGHTMARE acs-VT99

Now we have the fiery General Lebed well-positioned to try to succeed Boris Yeltsin as president of Russia in the next election. People are beginning to think again what could happen if Russian nationalists come to power and decide that NATO expansion is a threat to the mother country.

Already Russia is building a nuclear power plant for Iran. All it has to do is let down the guard on its atomic weapons inventory and the Persian Gulf could suddenly become a much more dangerous place.
LEBED IS NOT A DANGEROUS FUTURE LEADER OF RUSSIA
David Remnick, Pulitzer Prize winning author on Russia, 1997; RESURRECTION: The Struggle for a New Russia, p. 364 , acsVT99

Lebed's popularity is the highest of the four, but who he is, what sort of president he would be, is unknown. Lebed is considered "flexible" and "educable" by many Western visitors to Moscow, but his is a flexibility born mainly of ignorance. Lebed is a military man, but unlike Colin Powell or Dwight Eisenhower-to say nothing of his hero, de Gaulle-he has hardly any experience beyond the military. Lebed must be given credit for signing a peace treaty with the Chechens during his short tenure as security minister. He is also, by most accounts, a decent and honest man, which sets him apart from most who have set foot in the Kremlin.

ZYUGANOV AND THE COMMUNISTS HAVE LITTLE CHANCE TO WIN THE NEXT ELECTION
David Remnick, Pulitzer Prize winning author on Russia, 1997; RESURRECTION: The Struggle for a New Russia, p. 364 , acs-VT99

Lebed's potential rivals are probably more fixed in their views and political behavior, but they are not a promising lot. Zyuganov still has supporters, especially among the oldest and poorest sectors of the population, but he has little or no chance to win if he repeats the tactics and rhetoric of 1996. The communists would do well to jettison any memory of the past and adopt, as some are proposing, a new name for the part), and younger faces to run it. A party of social democrats is inevitable in Russia, but not under Zyuganov.


RUSSIAN ELECTIONS ARE NOT FAIR
RUSSIAN ELECTIONS SEEM FAIR, BUT SPENDING LIMITS WERE IGNORED
Grigory Yavlinsky; Russian economist and the leader of Yabloko, a democratic, reformist political party, Foreign Affairs, May, 1998 / June, 1998; Pg. 67, HEADLINE: Russia's Phony Capitalism acs-VT99

Although the recent elections are a positive development in the creation of Russian democratic institutions, some disturbing trends point to trouble in the future. While international observers have cited Russian balloting as free and fair, Russian campaigns -- most notably the 1996 presidential election -- have been notoriously unfair. Spending limits are routinely ignored. While no actual figures have been disclosed, the 1996 Yeltsin presidential campaign is estimated to have cost at least $ 500 million. Some put it at an even $ 1 billion. (By comparison, Bill Clinton's primary and general election campaigns that year together cost $ 113 million.) Officially, Russian presidential campaigns could spend only $ 2.9 million, but Yeltsin's overspending neither elicited a major outcry nor started judicial proceedings.

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