Affirmative section consultation and cooperation through dialogue networks



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CENTRAL ASIAN STATES WILL NOT ACT TO DESTABILIZE THE SITUATION
CENTRAL ASIAN STATES EMPHASIZE SECURITY AND STABILITY AND WILL AVOID DESTABILIZING REFORMS
Jennifer Anderson, Intl. Institute for Strategic Studies, December, 1997; THE LIMITS OF SINO-RUSSIAN STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP, Adelphi Paper 315; p. 58 , acs-VT99

The Central Asian states have demonstrated a marked preference for stability over democracy, cracking down on domestic dissent and discouraging pan-Turkic or Islamic sentiment. Outside competitors seeking influence have found far less fertile ground than originally expected. The reality of Central Asian life and the Soviet Union's secular state have left little taste for Islamic ideology, while Shi'a-Muslim Iran's failure to bridge the divide with mostly Sunni Central Asia further limits Tehran's appeal. US opposition has also thwarted Iranian attempts to play an independent .


CENTRAL ASIAN STATES HAVE SHOWN WILLINGNESS TO COOPERATE WITH BOTH RUSSIA AND CHINA
Jennifer Anderson, Intl. Institute for Strategic Studies, December, 1997; THE LIMITS OF SINO-RUSSIAN STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP, Adelphi Paper 315; p. 59 , acs-VT99

In Mongolia and Central Asia, however, shared concerns have allowed relations to progress more smoothly. Behind the talk of I new' security arrangements, and Russian hopes of more active cooperation with China, both countries have individually played to the region's long-standing fears of their larger neighbours. Under the guise of multilateralism in the 'four-plus-one' framework, a series of essentially bilateral agreements has been made under which Moscow and Beijing have pledged to respect Central Asian sovereignty. In return, the Central Asian states have in effect declared their support for Russia and China's internal security agendas.


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RUSSIA AND KAZAKHSTAN
KAZAKHSTAN WILL NOT FALL INTO ANYONE’S SPHERE OF INFLUENCE
Kasymzhomart Tokayev, Russian Press Digest, September 18, 1997, HEADLINE: Kazakhstan Does Not Want Be Part Of Someone's Sphere Of Influence, SOURCE: NEZAVISIMAYA GAZETA, p. 3 acs-VT99

President Nazarbayev's multi-vectorial foreign policy makes sure that Kazakhstan is not part of somebody's sphere of influence, asserts Foreign Minister Kasymzhomart Tokayev.


KAZAKHSTAN AVOIDS BECOMING ANYONE’S SATELLITE NATION
Kasymzhomart Tokayev, Russian Press Digest, September 18, 1997, HEADLINE: Kazakhstan Does Not Want Be Part Of Someone's Sphere Of Influence, SOURCE: NEZAVISIMAYA GAZETA, p. 3 acs-VT99

Commenting in a NEZAVISIMAYA GAZETA interview on Strobe Talbott's proclaiming Central Asia a "zone of U.S. strategic interests," Kazakh Foreign Minister Kasymzhomart Tokayev has said his country thinks that "being a great power, America has the right to choose the zones of her interests." However, he added, "Kazakhstan does not want to be part of somebody's sphere of influence, and carries out its own foreign policy within the limit of its possibilities.


KAZAKHSTAN WILL NOT BE A RUSSIAN SATELLITE NATION
Anatoly Ladin, Russian Press Digest, December 11, 1997, HEADLINE: In Kazakhstan, Russia Is Regarded As Main And Long-term Strategic Partner, But Has No Intentions Of Following In Russia's Wake, SOURCE: KRASNAYA ZVEZDA, p. 3 acs-VT99

From Nazarbayev's explanation, the author comments, it is possible to draw the conclusion that Kazakhstan does not intend to follow in the wake of Russia, and will independently choose its own strategic partners.


KAZAKHSTAN HAS CONFIDENCE THAT RUSSIA WILL RIGHT ITSELF
Anatoly Ladin, Russian Press Digest, December 11, 1997, HEADLINE: In Kazakhstan, Russia Is Regarded As Main And Long-term Strategic Partner, But Has No Intentions Of Following In Russia's Wake, SOURCE: KRASNAYA ZVEZDA, p. 3 acs-VT99

Russia, he declared, is Kazakhstan's long-term, strategic partner, our main partner. We understand that today Russia is living through a difficult period of "wild" capitalism and "wild" democracy. But Russia has in the past experienced all kinds of shocks. And this time too, Nazarbayev emphasized, I am sure Russia will rise to her full stature.


RUSSIA AND ARMENIA
ARMENIA WILL GO WITH RUSSIA AS AN ALLY BECAUSE THEY HAVE A GREAT DEAL OF INFLUENCE WITH THEM NOW
Ara Tatevosyan, MN Yerevan Bureau, Moscow News, July 17, 1997, HEADLINE: Armenia to Join Union ? acs-VT99

But Democratic Party leader Aram Sarkisyan said that "today we have to choose between the Russian-Belarusian coalition and the Caucasian house headed by Shevardnadze." He thinks that for the first time in its history Armenia has received a trump card that will allow it to dictate its conditions to Moscow. If Armenia changes its orientation, the Kremlin could lose the Caucuses for good.


ARMENIA IS SHIFTING TOWARDS RUSSIA AND AWAY FROM THE USA
ARA TATEVOSYAN, Moscow News, October 2, 1997, HEADLINE: ARMENIA: A CHANGE OF BEARINGS acs-VT99

Zhirair Liparityan's resignation as chief adviser to the president of Armenia for "family reasons" may signal changes in Armenian foreign policy as Armenia is beginning to shift its foreign policy focus away from the West and toward its neighbors.


USA PRESSURE ON ARMENIA IS CAUSING THEM TO MOVE TOWARDS REINTEGRATION WITH RUSSIA
Ara Tatevosyan, MN Yerevan Bureau, Moscow News, July 17, 1997, HEADLINE: Armenia to Join Union ? acs-VT99

The recent statements of Deputy Speaker of Parliament Ara Saakyan also deserve special attention. He said that the question of Armenia joining the Union is "a reaction to the policy of twisting arms, which the United States administration is using on the Armenian leadership."


POPULAR MOVEMENT IN ARMENIA IS PUSHING REINTEGRATION WITH RUSSIA
Ara Tatevosyan, MN Yerevan Bureau, Moscow News, July 17, 1997, HEADLINE: Armenia to Join Union ? acs-VT99

Armenian leftists collected about half a million signatures in support of Armenia joining the Union of Russia and Belarus.

Everything began when a group of intellectuals appealed to the leadership and people of Armenia to join the Russian-Belarusian Union as soon as possible. At a conference in Yerevan, the participants created the Armenian National Initiative and declared the vital necessity of Armenia's joining the Union in order to "rebuild a unified economic, defense, and scientific-cultural realm."

A group of State Duma deputies - Ryzhkov, Kuptsov, Gdlyan, Surkov, and others - asked parliament to consider a statement on supporting the Armenian National Initiative. On that very day, the Duma supported the statement with an absolute majority and called on the "fraternal peoples of Armenia, Russia and Belarus to unite in a new Union."

Gennadiy Zyuganov was soon to react as well, expressing his certainty that the "mutual noble goal will be achieved."
CASPIAN OIL IS PLENTIFUL AND THE USA WANTS IT
CASPIAN OIL RESERVES WILL BECOME CRUCIAL TO INTERNATIONAL OIL SUPPLY
John H. Lichtblau, The Oil and Gas Journal, August 11, 1997; Pg. 19; HEADLINE: U.S. Caspian area foreign policy in conflict with resource plans; acs-VT99

The Caspian Sea is an excellent target for this policy. A recent U.S. Administration report to Congress states, "With potential (recoverable) reserves of as much as 200 billion bbl of oil the Caspian region could become the most important new player in world oil markets over the next decade."


CASPIAN OIL OUTPUT WILL CONTINUE RISING WELL INTO THE 21ST CENTURY
John H. Lichtblau, The Oil and Gas Journal, August 11, 1997; Pg. 19; HEADLINE: U.S. Caspian area foreign policy in conflict with resource plans; acs-VT99

The U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration estimates that by 2015 Caspian region oil exports will be in the 2-4 million b/d range. Given the region's reserve potential, this level is likely to keep rising beyond that period.


AMERICANS ARE INVOLVED IN A SCRAMBLE FOR CASPIAN OIL
Michael Eric Bronner; The Washington Times, November 22, 1997, Pg. A8, HEADLINE: U.S. pins high hopes on Caspian oil reserves; Experts caution that estimates may not pan out acs-VT99

After Saddam Hussein's dramatization of his attitude problem raised the possibility of another conflict in the Persian Gulf, recent flutters about vast oil reserves in the Caspian Sea come more sharply into focus. Whether at a White House reception for Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev on Monday or a celebration of "first oil" on a rig about 115 miles off Azerbaijan's coast last week, Washington has clearly joined international oil executives and regional political leaders in pinning high hopes on vast reserves of Central Asian oil.


USA POLICY IS RAPID OIL DEVELOPMENT IN CASPIAN REGION
Michael Eric Bronner; The Washington Times, November 22, 1997, Pg. A8, HEADLINE: U.S. pins high hopes on Caspian oil reserves; Experts caution that estimates may not pan out acs-VT99

"It is the Clinton administration's policy to promote rapid development of Caspian energy resources to reinforce Western energy security," Stuart E. Eizenstat, undersecretary of state for economic affairs, told the Senate Foreign Relations subcommittee on international economic policy at hearings last month. In light of the insatiable American thirst for petroleum, members of Congress and other policy-makers have joined the administration in looking to Central Asia to offset the importance of oil imports from the politically volatile Persian Gulf.


USA WANTS TO LIFT SANCTIONS ON AZERBAIJAN FOR MANY REASONS, INCLUDING OIL
Michael Eric Bronner; The Washington Times, November 22, 1997, Pg. A8, HEADLINE: U.S. pins high hopes on Caspian oil reserves; Experts caution that estimates may not pan out acs-VT99

Mr. Brownback, who has introduced legislation to lift U.S. sanctions against Azerbaijan, testified alongside Mr. Eizenstat, former Secretary of State Lawrence Eagleburger and Charles Pitman, Amoco Eurasia chairman and president. They mentioned ancillary considerations: containing the northward spread of extremism, stemming the southward flow of nuclear weapons, instilling nearby market economies as examples to Russia and China - and, last but not least, pursuing the region's "vast reserves" of untapped oil.


CASPIAN OIL BOOM IS A MIRAGE WE SHOULD IGNORE
CASPIAN OIL RESERVES ARE HUGELY EXAGGERATED
Michael Eric Bronner; The Washington Times, November 22, 1997, Pg. A8, HEADLINE: U.S. pins high hopes on Caspian oil reserves; Experts caution that estimates may not pan out acs-VT99

Press accounts and U.S. government documents put Caspian oil reserves at 100 billion to 200 billion barrels. This would rival the total ever extracted in the United States - a major find.

However, British Petroleum's annual Statistical Review of World Energy, regarded as the industry's most reliable listing, paints a starkly different picture.

The BP guide rates proven oil reserves of the Caspian's big players - Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan - at 7 billion barrels and 8 billion barrels respectively - just 1.4 percent of global proven reserves.

Though all parties to this disagreement expect continuing discoveries of small new fields in the region, the discrepancy between estimates is profound.
OIL LOBBYISTS ARE EXAGGERATED THE POTENTIAL OF CASPIAN OIL
Michael Eric Bronner; The Washington Times, November 22, 1997, Pg. A8, HEADLINE: U.S. pins high hopes on Caspian oil reserves; Experts caution that estimates may not pan out acs-VT99

Mr. Ivanhoe [L.F. Ivanhoe, 77, a geologist, geophysicist, engineer and oceanographer] says the goals of the oil industry and the country as a whole are mistakenly equated.

"Americans often have difficulties discerning between lobbyists and scientists," he said. "If you're trying to sell your project, you've got the biggest thing since ice cream was invented," he said of the hoopla over Central Asia. "When an [industry] representative says there are between 100 [billion] and 200 billion barrels, he is lobbying. They just want to go there, and they don't want any obstacles in their way," Mr. Ivanhoe went on. "If there turns out to be oil there, great! If not, they move on."
CASPIAN OIL WILL NOT CHANGE THE FACT OF AMERICAN OIL DEPENDENCY ON THE MIDDLE EAST
Michael Eric Bronner; The Washington Times, November 22, 1997, Pg. A8, HEADLINE: U.S. pins high hopes on Caspian oil reserves; Experts caution that estimates may not pan out acs-VT99

Adds Mr. Campbell [geologist Colin Campbell]: "With respect to Caspian reserves, insofar as the United States will continue to be an importer, I'm quite sure it is not a solution and will have no major impact on the overall situation at all. "Saudi Arabia claims to have reserves of 259 billion barrels, which is miles away from anything you can reasonably say about the Caspian," he said.


CASPIAN OIL IS POTENTIAL RESERVES NOT ACTUAL RESERVES
Michael Eric Bronner; The Washington Times, November 22, 1997, Pg. A8, HEADLINE: U.S. pins high hopes on Caspian oil reserves; Experts caution that estimates may not pan out acs-VT99

While no one doubts the presence of oil beneath the freshwater Caspian, industry experts call into question the magnitude of undiscovered reserves and their ultimate significance to the United States. Their skepticism is based on what one expert called "the reality of the finite resource." "The question is not whether, but when, world crude productivity will start to decline, ushering in an era of permanant oil shock," said L.F. Ivanhoe, 77, a geologist, geophysicist, engineer and oceanographer with about 50 years of experience in evaluating potential petroleum basins for private interests and governments.

"The Caspian Sea has been known for a century to be a significant petroleum province, but right now, they're still talking about what they hope is there, not what they know is there," Mr. Ivanhoe said.

"But whatever they find, it's not going to make or break the fact that the world is consuming far more oil than we're finding," he added. "And one thing Americans forget is that the whole world is after this oil."


CASPIAN OIL WON’T REPLACE DEPENDENCE ON THE MIDDLE EAST --- EVEN WITH CASPIAN PRODUCTION, MIDDLE EAST SHARE OF OIL OUTPUT WILL CONTINUE TO RISE
John H. Lichtblau, The Oil and Gas Journal, August 11, 1997; Pg. 19; HEADLINE: U.S. Caspian area foreign policy in conflict with resource plans; acs-VT99

The Caspian Sea and other new developments may prevent the Middle East's share from rising to "more than 70% of world oil exports by 2010," as Sec. Pena predicted. But the Middle East's share will still be significantly higher in 2010 than its current level of about 50%.

Thus, the growth in Caspian or any other regional exports will not dislodge the Middle East from its unique position as the world's prime oil exporter.
CASPIAN BASIN IS NOT THE ACE IN THE HOLE FOR WORLD ENERGY SUPPLY
HILLARY DURGIN, The Houston Chronicle, April 29, 1998, Pg. 1, HEADLINE: Caspian study challenges oil industry's thinking , acs-VT99

Construction of a wide array of pipelines has been a major foreign policy goal for the United States, which views Caspian crude as a strategic alternative to Persian Gulf crude.

"We're trying to put the Caspian Basin in the right perspective," said Edward Djerejian, director of the Baker Institute, at a press briefing Tuesday.

"The Caspian Basin is not the 'ace in the hole' for global energy supply," he said.


EVEN BY THE MOST OPTIMISTIC ESTIMATES, CASPIAN OIL WILL BE ONLY A TINY PART OF WORLD SUPPLY
HILLARY DURGIN, The Houston Chronicle, April 29, 1998, Pg. 1, HEADLINE: Caspian study challenges oil industry's thinking , acs-VT99

The study said that even under the most optimistic assessments, by 2010 Caspian oil production likely will reach little more than 3.5 million barrels per day and cover only 3 to 4 percent of expected worldwide use.

By contrast, Venezuelan oil is expected to account for as much as 7 to 8 percent, while Middle East oil still will dominate with a 25 to 35 percent share, the study said.
MULTIPLE BARRIERS WILL PREVENT CASPIAN OIL FROM EVER BEING USED
MULTIPLE BARRIERS WILL PREVENT ANY SUBSTANTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF CASPIAN OIL POTENTIAL
Michael Eric Bronner; The Washington Times, November 22, 1997, Pg. A8, HEADLINE: U.S. pins high hopes on Caspian oil reserves; Experts caution that estimates may not pan out acs-VT99

Among the factors threatening deals are Russia's apparent goal of hegemony over the Newly Independent States, chronic ethnic tensions throughout the region, and the fact that the likeliest routes for getting the prize to market traverse such volatile lands as Chechnya, Georgia, southern Russia, Turkey, Iran and Afghanistan - depending on where new pipelines are put.

"Under such untenable and uncertain conditions, it is difficult to foresee oil going anywhere in significant quantities any time soon," said M.G. Melconian, a longtime industry consultant and president of Princeton, N.J.-based PetroTechnologies. "Sure, studies, proposals, press releases, and even well-intentioned agreements will proliferate, but no major production seems likely or secure until a regional export system is developed," Mr. Melconian added.
A HOST OF BARRIERS PREVENT EXTENSIVE CASPIAN OIL AND GAS DEVELOPMENTS
HILLARY DURGIN, The Houston Chronicle, April 29, 1998, Pg. 1, HEADLINE: Caspian study challenges oil industry's thinking , acs-VT99

A host of geological, logistical and political challenges are likely to prevent the development of significant oil and gas production from Central Asia in the next few years, according to the study by researchers at Rice University's James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy in Houston.

As a result, export routes must be developed that make the best political and economic sense, the study proposes. Specifically, the study suggests there should be one main export pipeline.
POLITICAL AND LOGISTICAL BARRIERS PREVENT CASPIAN OIL AND GAS DEVELOPMENT
HILLARY DURGIN, The Houston Chronicle, April 29, 1998, Pg. 1, HEADLINE: Caspian study challenges oil industry's thinking , acs-VT99

The Caspian's potential reserves of between 60 billion and 140 billion barrels of oil are comparable to reserve estimates for the North Sea. But the political and logistical barriers to exploration and development in Central Asia and the Caucasus contrast with the stability that allowed oil and gas companies to move swiftly in the North Sea, the study said.

Indeed, while oil and gas executives have come to refer to the Caspian Basin as "the new North Sea," the study's findings challenge that perception.
BECAUSE THE CASPIAN BASIN IS A CENTER FOR FUTURE FLASPOINTS, IT WILL NOT BE DEVELOPED
HILLARY DURGIN, The Houston Chronicle, April 29, 1998, Pg. 1, HEADLINE: Caspian study challenges oil industry's thinking , acs-VT99

In addition, the Caspian Basin's location between Russia, China, Iran and Turkey make it "a magnet for foreign powers and a flash point for potential conflict between them," the study points out. The high risk of geopolitical competition could cause instability both there and in neighboring countries, particularly Russia, the study notes.


CASPIAN OIL EXPLOITATION MAY SPARK WAR
CENTRAL ASIA IS A VERY DANGEROUS PLACE TO GO LOOKING FOR NEW OIL SUPPLIES
Michael Eric Bronner; The Washington Times, November 22, 1997, Pg. A8, HEADLINE: U.S. pins high hopes on Caspian oil reserves; Experts caution that estimates may not pan out acs-VT99

"The United States hates to be dependent on the Middle East, and I think there's a bit of wishful thinking going on here," said exploration geologist Colin Campbell, an associate of the Geneva-based advisory firm Petroconsultants and author of a new book, "The Coming Oil Crisis." "The oil industry has been trying to make deals with the FSU [former Soviet Union] since the collapse of communism, and it's been a nightmare. I don't think one could imagine a more sensitive region in which to do business. And the fact that the Western countries are willing to take such risks says there aren't many other places left."


THE CASPIAN REGION IS RIPE FOR INSTABILITY, AND OIL ONLY COMPLICATES THE SITUATION
Michael Eric Bronner; The Washington Times, November 22, 1997, Pg. A8, HEADLINE: U.S. pins high hopes on Caspian oil reserves; Experts caution that estimates may not pan out acs-VT99

"If economic and political reform in the countries of the Caucasus and Central Asia does not succeed - if cross-border conflicts simmer and flare - the region could become a breeding ground of terrorism, a hotbed of religious and political extremism, and a battleground for outright war," said Deputy Secretary of State Strobe Talbott in a recent address to the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies in Washington.

"It would matter profoundly to the United States if that were to happen in an area that sits on as much as 200 billion barrels of oil," he added.
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NO WAR THREAT IN CASPIAN OIL ZONE
CONFLICTS OVER RUSSIAN AND CASPIAN OIL WILL NOT LEAD TO A NEW COLD WAR
Steven Merritt Miner, professor of Russian history at Ohio University, Los Angeles Times, December 21, 1997, Part M; Page 2; HEADLINE: THE WORLD; RUSSIA; AMERICA'S EMERGING NEMESIS acs-VT99

Sharp Russian oil politics provide headaches for Washington, but they do not amount to a renewal of the Cold War. Russian power is much too weak for that, and the largely privatized Russian economy is far too intertwined with the rest of the capitalist world to return to the old days of Soviet-style isolation. Above all else, there is no real ideological impulse dictating an all-out Russian-American face-down. Rather, what we are seeing is the reemergence of an independent Russian foreign policy. It is inevitable that a nation covering more than one-seventh of the world's land mass would have interests that sometimes collide with our own.


ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES IN OIL AND GAS COULD HELP STABILIZE THE CASPIAN REGION
John H. Lichtblau, The Oil and Gas Journal, August 11, 1997; Pg. 19; HEADLINE: U.S. Caspian area foreign policy in conflict with resource plans; acs-VT99

There are also geopolitical reasons for the U.S.'s support of the Caspian Sea region's oil and gas developments.

The U.S. wants the region's newly independent states (NIS) to survive as sovereign political units. This requires a viable economic base and that other nations have an economic stake in the continuing independence of the Caspian NISs. Oil and gas production and exports provide such a base and such a stake.
USA CASPIAN OIL EXPLOITATION DAMAGES RUSSIAN INFLUENCE AND LEADS TO CONFLICT
US OIL VENTURES IN THE FORMER SOVIET STATES ARE DESIGNED TO DETACH THEM FROM RELIANCE ON RUSSIA
Charles Clover, Financial Times (London), August 8, 1997; Pg. 04, HEADLINE: Superpowers circle Caspian

The commercial objective of ensuring access to oil supplies camouflages a more aggressive posture in Russia's former sphere of influence, as the US pursues a quiet policy of detaching Russia's former satellites, one by one. "The political objective of making the CIS independent is largely an economic problem, and involves the creation of infrastructure," said an economist with a development bank in London.


RUSSIA NEEDS TO BE INVOLVED IN THE CASPIAN REGION TO DEMONSTRATE THE BENEFITS OF COOPERATION OVER MILITARY ACTION
Fred Hiatt; International Herald Tribune, August 5, 1997, Pg. 8, HEADLINE: Don't Try to Shoulder Russia Out of the Caucasus Oil Game acs-VT99

It is in everyone's interest for these Russians to be included, not excluded - for Russians to see that they, too, can benefit in a nonimperial world.

The competition for influence does not have to be a zero-sum game, Deputy Secretary of State Strobe Talbott said recently. ''We want to see all responsible players in the Caucasus and Central Asia be winners.''
RUSSIAN MILITARY THREAT TO THE OIL PIPELINES IS UNREALISTIC
Fred Hiatt; International Herald Tribune, August 5, 1997, Pg. 8, HEADLINE: Don't Try to Shoulder Russia Out of the Caucasus Oil Game acs-VT99

While the Heritage Foundation warns of a possible ''new Russian empire'' that might seek ''exclusive control over the region's pipelines,'' the real Russia's army is disintegrating, and its efforts to form a closer commonwealth of former Soviet republics have been rebuffed.


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CASPIAN OIL IS IN AZERBAIJAN AND KAZAKHSTAN
AZERBAIJAN HAS RICH OIL RESERVES AND AN OIL RUSH IS IN PROGRESS
Fred Hiatt; International Herald Tribune, August 5, 1997, Pg. 8, HEADLINE: Don't Try to Shoulder Russia Out of the Caucasus Oil Game acs-VT99

Azerbaijan claims title to a good-sized patch of the Caspian Sea oil and gas reserves. Along with Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, on the Caspian's facing shore, Azerbaijan has become the object of an oil rush as nations and companies jockey for access to that $4 trillion prize.


80% OF CASPIAN OIL RESERVES ARE IN KAZAKHSTAN
HILLARY DURGIN, The Houston Chronicle, April 29, 1998, Pg. 1, HEADLINE: Caspian study challenges oil industry's thinking , acs-VT99

Not only do potential reserves in the Caspian fall far shy of proven reserves in the Persian Gulf, but 80 percent of the reserves are concentrated in one country, Kazakhstan, the study points out. In the Gulf, reserves are spread across five major oil powers.


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CASPIAN OIL EXPLOITATION ANGERS NATIONALISTS
RUSSIAN NATIONALISTS STRONGLY OPPOSE WESTERN DEVELOPMENT OF CASPIAN OIL
Vladimir Zhirinovskiy, BBC Summary of World Broadcasts, November 18, 1997, HEADLINE: Nationalist leader Zhirinovskiy urges support for anti-American groups in Iraq, SOURCE: Source: Interfax news agency, Moscow, in English 1032 gmt 17 Nov 97 acs-VT99

Zhirinovskiy said. The development of oil fields in Azerbaijan by the West is very dangerous, he said. " When they pump out all oil from there, the Caspian Sea will sink and that will be the end of Azerbaijan," Zhirinovskiy said.




RUSSIA AWAKENS 1999

Eastern Evidence Debate Handbook; http://debate.uvm.edu/ee.html; asnider@zoo.uvm.edu; 802-656-0097


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