|A SLOW GROWTH WORLD SITUATION WILL SHATTER WORLD PEACE
Walter Russell Mead, senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, Los Angeles Times, May 10, 1998; Part M; Page 2; HEADLINE: THE WORLD / DIPLOMACY; SO NOW WHO'S IN CHARGE? // acs-VT99
Unfortunately, our Cold War allies share a negative, slow-growth agenda. Neither Western Europe nor Japan wants to make troublesome, difficult reforms. Europe (Britain excepted) doesn't want to break up its cozy welfare states and Japan doesn't want to dismantle its centrally planned and cartel-based economy. If that means slow global growth, Western Europe and Japan don't care. With slow or negative population growth, Western Europe and Japan don't need to build their economies to make room for future generations. In practice, rapid economic growth would require Europe and Japan to be more receptive to immigrants: a big taboo in both places. Finally, as creditor societies increasingly dominated by retirees, they prefer low inflation and high interest rates even if the price is slower growth around the world.
That is bad for the United States, bad for world peace and, ultimately, bad for Western Europe and Japan. If Europe and Japan don't do their part in stimulating world growth, social and political tensions in the Third World will ultimately undermine world peace with terrible consequences for all.
IMPACT: A RUSSIAN CIVIL WAR WILL BECOME A NATIONAL ETHNIC CONFLICT
A CIVIL WAR WOULD LEAD TO THE BREAK-UP OF RUSSIA INTO INDEPENDENT STATES. THIS WOULD DRAMATICALLY INCREASE THE NUMBER OF NATIONS THAT HAVE NUCLEAR WEAPONS, AND RUSSIAN CENTRAL AUTHORITY WILL FIGHT A NUCLEAR CIVIL WAR
Victor Irsraelyan, 1998 [For almost 50 years, Victor Israelyan was a Soviet ambassador, diplomat, arms control negotiator, and leading political scientist. The Washington Quarterly. Winter, 1998. SECTION: Vol. 21, No. 1; Pg. 47. HEADLINE: Russia at the Crossroads: Don't Tease a Wounded Bear \\ jan]VT99
These pressures could well exacerbate the trend toward fragmentation that has already been evident in the Russian Federation. Other autonomous formations (there are currently 20 of them within Russia) might follow the example of the breakaway republic of Chechnya, a process that could continue until Russia is reduced to the dimensions of the Grand Duchy of Moscow. In this event the world will have to deal with a conglomerate of small independent states rather than a united Russia, which is a permanent member of the United Nations (LYN) Security Council.
One cannot exclude such a possibility. In the wake of another imperial collapse, more than 10 states emerged from the ruins of the Austro-Hungarian monarchy, which had existed for several centuries. Almost 100 states, now essential players in the world arena have been established as a result of the collapse of the French and British empires. The multinational Russian Federation might follow the same path. But in the case of Russia, national fragmentation will pose an entirely new threat - nuclear weapons proliferation. The small countries of the former Russian empire may claim ownership of parts of the Russian nuclear arsenal, arguing that the weapons were either produced or deployed on their territories. Under such conditions, Russia will feel an urgent need to take all possible measures to prevent the further disintegration of the country.
RUSSIA HAS FORGOTTEN HOW TO DEAL WITH ITS MANY ETHNIC GROUPS, AND RISKS SHATTERING APART AS A RESULT
Valery V. Tsepkalo; Belarus' Ambassador to the United States, Foreign Affairs, March, 1998 /April, 1998; Pg. 107, HEADLINE: The Remaking of Eurasia acs-VT99
As Russia broke up the Soviet Union, it soured its relations with the union's former republics and stopped treating many non-Russian peoples in its territory with dignity. Thus the central government incessantly duels with Tatarstan over tax revenues. Ingushetia and the Primorsky (Far Eastern) regions have demanded greater autonomy. North Caucasia, the Volga Basin, and the Siberian republics speak of secession. Tatarstan wants to sell oil independently on world markets and is building, with German help, its own tanker fleet. Talk of a Rus Republic that would include only predominantly ethnic Russian areas is fashionable. The Russian parliament held two hearings last year at which self-determination for ethnic Russian and Muslim Turkic populations was discussed, raising the possibility of the secession of ethnic Russian areas from the Russian Federation, a process that would break up Russia itself in the same manner as the Soviet Union. The very mention of such a scenario proves that the Russian elite has forgotten how to coexist with other peoples and ethnic groups.
This disad is has a generic link to any case that may increase, or stabilize US relations with Russia. The argument is that when we better our relations with Russia this hardens our relations with China because Russia and China are embarking on a very shaky bilateral cooperation on many issues in opposition to the United States. China will be angry at Both Russia and the United States for a couple of reasons. First, they see Asia as their sphere of influence, as Russia is no longer the Asian superpower and China is slowly taking over that role. Also, China is very wary of US actions within their sphere because they view it as a threat to their sovereignty. Secondly, many authors argue that better relations between the US and Russia make it easier for the US to actively contain China. The story is that China will perceive US actions with Russia as containment.
There are many scenarios that can be run off of this. First of all the internal link is twofold. First the plan will negatively affect US-Sino relations. then there is the Impact which could be one of 3 things. First, good relations between the US and China are key to solving the crisis on the Korean Peninsula which is described by the cards included as the most likely flash point for a nuclear war in the world. Secondly, a hampering of relations could spark China to be adventurous and take Taiwan, or attempt to. The United States has agreed to back Taiwan in such an event which would mean some sort of conflict between the US and China. Thirdly this adventurous spirit could also lead China to take the Spratly's which are Islands in the South China Sea that many claim contain vast amounts of oil. These Islands however are under dispute and have been claimed by many Asian/Southeast Asian nations. Sino-territorial grabs in the South China Seas would most likely erupt in a regional conflict that would be pretty ugly. Also, there is a likelihood of the US getting involved with such a conflict.
Included is enough evidence to give you a good idea of the disad, but it should be expanded upon with more specific links. As well, there is a lot of literature available about the impact scenarios and the internal links.
AFFIRMATIVE DAMAGES US-CHINA RELATIONS
A. US RUSSIAN ALLIANCE WILL BE USED TO CONTAIN CHINA
Amos Perlmutter, professor of political science and sociology at American University and editor of the journal of Strategic Studies,The Washington Times,April 9, 1998, Thursday, Final Edition HEAD LINE: Illusion of unending NATO expansion
In the post-Cold War international system, when the greatest challenge to the United States comes from China, and when we badly need Russia as an ally to contain China, we are creating a Russian-Chinese alliance and a Russian-Iranian alliance.
B. IF CHINA PERCEIVES THAT THE US IS INCREASING ITS EFFORTS TO CONTAIN THEM, OUR RELATIONS WILL DETERIORATE
Dr. Richard N. Haas, director of foreign policy study programs at Brookings Institution, 1997 [HEADLINE: DEARING OF THE SENATE FOREIGN RELATIONS COMMITTEE SUBJECT: US POLICY TOWARD CHINA. SEPTEMBER 17,1997. Federal News Service\\jan]VT99
Thirdly, I worry over the large political signal this legislation will send. There's a widespread sentiment throughout China that the United States stands in its way, that somehow it's US policy to deny China its rightful place in the world. I do not believe this to be the case. We couldn't prevent China's rise even if we so desired, but legislation such as this will work to reinforce the impression in China and therefore make it more likely that the US-Chinese relationship will become adversarial.
C. BREAKDOWN IN US/SINO RELATIONS EQUALS NEW COLD WAR, ASIAN ARMS RACE, AND BREAK-DOWN IN KOREAN COOPERATION.
MICHAEL ZIELENZIGER, KNIGHT-RIDDER NEWS SERVICE, June 29,1997 HEADLINE: A TEST FOR CHINA-,WHAT DOES BEIJ LNG INTEND FOR HONG KONG'S FUTURE, FREEDOM OR TIGHT CONTROL? Pittsburgh POST-GazETTE//pk VT99
Increased tension with China WOULD mean the U.S. State Department could no longer rely on Beijing's help to finally and officially end the war on the Korean Peninsula, where tensions remain high. And it would mean South Korea, Japan and the "tiger" economics of Southeast Asia might someday find themselves caught in a vise between China's grow ing ambitions and the United States' growing fears. Such insecurity could trigger a new arms race across Asia, meaning billions more U.S. taxpayer dollars would be spent on the military while the pentagon would be forced to delay any plans to reduce U.S. troop strength in the region. "The U.S. could stumble into a new cold war" said Kenneth Lieberthal, a China scholar at the University of Michigan.
LINKS AND LINK HELPERS
CHINA PERCEIVES US EXERCISE OF SOFT POWER AS A CRITICAL THREAT.
Denny Roy, Strategic and Defense studies Center, Australia, 1996 Security Dialogue. "China's Threat Environment" VT99
Throughout the various threatening scenarios Beijing envisions, the prominence of the United St a tes is rernarkable. The United States clearly represents the single greatest source of danger to China not only because of its military strength, but also through its various forms of 'sofy' power that have the potential to enlarge and intensify China's indigenous political and social problems.
Policy-makers dealing with Beijing must account for what might be termed Sino-centric paranoia: a belief that the other major powers have a long-term commitment to dividing and otherwise weakening China to prevent it from rising from the legacy of the 'century of shame' and returning to its former and rightful place as the center of world civilization. This deep-seated. fear forces nearly every aspect of Sino-US contact, including cultural and economic relations, into the context of a lifeand-death political power.
CHINA VIEWS ALL OF ITS NEIGHBORS AS ENEMIES. THIS CAUSES THEM TO DISTRUST AN COLLECTIVE SECURITY ANY ARRANGEMENTS
Fei-Ling Wang; assistant professor of international affairs at the Georgia Institute of Technology, 1998 [The Washington Quarterly. Winter. SECTION: Vol. 21, No. 1; Pg. 67 HEADLINE: To Incorporate China: A New Policy for a New Era\\jan]VT99
CCP insecurity has colored the country's "national interests" to the extent that some analysts in Beijing view nearly all its neighbors as potential "troublemakers": Japan "is transforming from a potential threat to a real threat", Russia is "our long term potential rival"; and India "is the potential source of instability in our southwestern regions. Moreover, Beijing sees the member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) as the "direct party of struggle over our sovereignty of the Nansha (Spratly) islands," so that the development of "a larger ASEAN" would be a serious and unfavorable challenge to China. Such perceptions of insecurity in a rising power hardly lead it to feel at peace with the world or to trust collective security arrangements.
CHINA SEES GLOBALIZATION OF ALLIANCE SYSTEMS, LIKE NATO, AS A THREAT OF CONTAINMENT.
Yoichi Funabashi (Bureau Chief of Asahi Shimbun American Gen. Bureau 1996-97 Survival vol 38 no 4, winter "bridging Asias Economics Security Gap)//jm VT99
Balance between these three regional powers, at as core. means coping with the rise or China. Some argue that 'the emergence or China as a global power ... could be dealt with within the framework or a traditional alliance like NATO only if NATO were fundamentally overvalued." I However, Beijing will view tiny such new alliance system. or 'globalisation or NATO', as an expansion or Western influence and an attempt to contain China. The global strategy will not work, as wcurity implication-, will he felt and pronounced in regional terms.
CHINA PERCEIVES US LEADERSHIP AS THREATENING IN NEW WORLD ORDER
Pendley, William T., Prof of International relations and Asian Studies at The Air War College in Alabama, 1997 Heritage Foundation Reports, "China as International Actor", excerpt from Between Diplomacy and Deterrence Heritage Foundation Reports, June 2, 1997 / sjs-VT99
Because it shares a 2,700-mile border with China, Russia has been a concern to Chinese dynasties throughout history. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, however, a new bond has emerged to replace the ties Of shared ideology: Both China and Russia are powers in transition and deeply dissatisfied with their Current status in the international system. Russia as a declining power and China as an emerging great power both view the current domination of the international system by the United States as threatening.
CHINA WANTS US OUT OF ASIA
Richard Bernstein and Ross Munro, RB-book critic New York Times and RMDirector of the Asia Program at the Foreign Policy Research institute in Philadephia, 1997-.The Coming Conflict with China \\js VT99
As we will see below, China's self-conception and its vision of the American role in Asia have changed markedly over the past decade. Internal policy documents have been circulating within the Chinese leadership since 1992. portraying the United States as China's real enemy. In 1995, China's foreign minister Qian Qichcn sent a chill through the annual meeting of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations by declaring it was time for the United States to stop regarding itself as the savior of the East.' Qian said: "We do not recognize the United States as a power which claims to maintain the peace and stability of Asia."'The statement signaled that China's strategic thinking had changed. Befpre, it welcomed the American military presence in Asia as a stabilizing force and a balance to the Soviet Union. Now its assumption is that an American withdrawal would leave China the dominant power, and that is what it wants to be.
BETTER RELATIONS WITH RUSSIA THREATEN RUSSIA-CHINA RELATIONSHIP
CHINA AND RUSSIA SHARE AN ANTI-AMERICAN SENTIMENT
Stephen J. Blank, 1997 [of the U.S. Army War College College Aviation Week and Space Technology, August 19, 1997. HEADLINE: Sino-Russian Ties: Implication for for the West? Following are excerpts from a recent analysis by Blank, "The Dynamics of Russian Weapons Sales to China." A national security analyst at the college's Strategic Studies Institute and a fluent speaker of Russian, Blank specializes in Russian military affairs.\\jan]VT99
Russian policymakers also appear utterly oblivious to threats based on transferring weapons to China. Apparently, they believe that Russia is immune to such threats , or that its peaceful interests give it a standing as a power that "does not deserve to be hurt." Others assume that, by practicing such policies, Russia will either gain leverage over China and a constant and friendly market; or [they] think that Russia's technological superiority will enable Russia to offset and repel threats. China now has many points of leverage throughout the Russian economy, with federal and local governments, among civilian and military bureaucracies and with the defense industry. China also gains a market for some of its lower quality goods and a source of cheap consumer goods. It shares with Moscow (and New Delhi) a common desire to restrict Muslim nationalism in Xinjiang and Central Asia. And of course, it gains a stable, cheap supply of quality weaponry. WHILE THIS LAST BENEFIT may be the most tangible geopolitical fruit of this new relationship, it also cements an anti-American orientation, which can only grow more truculent and intense if China collides with U.S. interests in East Asia.
CHINA, JAPAN, AND RUSSIA ARE FORMING TRIPARTITE TO INCREASE STABILITY IN REGION
The Canberra Times. November 18, 1997. HEADLINE: LOVING THY NEIGHBOUR PAYS IN ASIA-PACIFIC. The Federal Capital Press of Australia///sdg VT99
China, Russia and Japan have been working at the highest levels to create a tripartite relationship that, in the words of the Chinese official spokesman, would contribute to peace and stability throughout the region. In the course of the past fortnight the Russian President, Boris Yeltsin, met the Chinese President, Jiang Zemin, and the Japanese Prime Minister, Ryutaro Hashimoto; and the Chinese Prime Minister, Li Pen-, began a six-day visit to Japan.
YELTSIN AND ZEMIN HAVE RESOLVED HISTORIC BORDER DISPUTES
The Canberra Times. November 18, 1997. HEADLINE: LOVING THY NEIGHBOUR PAYS IN ASIA-PACIFIC. The Federal Capital Press of Australia///sdg VT99
Yeltsin's visit to Beijing was perhaps of most immediate importance. The 40OOkm border between China and Russia has never been precisely defined, and for centuries has caused friction between the two countries.
After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the demarcation talks which had been stalled for many years were resumed. Until recently, little progress had been made, but last week Yeltsin and Jiang signed a declaration proclaiming the end of present disputes.
SINO/RUSSIAN RELATIONSHIP HAS RESOLVED THE ISSUE OF A MILITARIZED BORDER
Gennady Chufrin October 10, 1997 [Professor Gennady Chufrin is Deputy Director of the Institute of Oriental Studies at the Academy of Science, Moscow, SINGAPORE STRAITS TIMES. HEADLINE: China and Russia: Just ties, no alliance\\jan]VT99
The second part of the problem (demilitarisation of the border) was resolved when the Moscow Declaration was supplemented by an agreement between Russia and China, also signed in April this year. According to this agreement, Russia assumed an obligation to reduce, within two years, the size of its armed forces in a 100-km border zone with China by 15 per cent, while Kazakhstan, TaJikistan and Kirgizia, who joined this agreement, declared a complete withdrawal of troops from their borders with China. As a result, Russia, China and the former Soviet Central Asian republics had .a unique opportunity to divert substantial resources so far spent on keeping an oversized military potential on their mutual borders for more productive purposes. These border agreements undoubtedly helped to resolve many sensitive and delicate issues in SinoRussian relations, including long-standing, and potentially explosive territorial disputes.
THE NEW RUSSIA/SINO RELATIONSHIP HAS RESOLVED TERRITORIAL DISPUTES ALONG THEIR MUTUAL BORDER
Gennady Chufrin, October 10, 1997 [Professor Gennady Chufrin is Deputy Director of the Institute of Oriental Studies at the Academy of Science, Moscow. SINGAPORE STRAITS TINES. HEADLINE: China and Russia : Just ties, no alliance\\jan]VT99
Second, by signing the above declaration, both sides wanted to minimise contradictions still remaining in their own relations. Among such major outstanding issues of a bilateral nature was, of course, the problem of demarcation and demilitarisation of the Sino-Russian border. The first part of this problem had already been resolved after the signing of the agreements between Moscow and Beijing on the eastern portion of the border in May 1991 and on its western portion in December 1994. These agreements held even when Mr Yevgeni Nazdratenko, governor of the maritime province, disagreed with the way the Sino-Russian border was demarcated in some areas and tried to start an ultra-nationalistic obstructionist cam paign on this issue. This unfortunate incident was resolved, however, in a very amicable fashion by the Russian and the Chinese governments who, acting in the larger interests of mutual cooperation, compromised their positions on the disputed border area.
RUSSIA WANTS CHINA INVOLVED IN REGIONAL DIALOGUE ABOUT SECURITY ISSUES
Gennady Chufrin, October 10, 1997 [Professor Gennady Chufrin is Deputy Director of the Institute of Oriental Studies at the Academy of Science, Moscow. SINGAPORE STRAITS TIMES. HEADLINE: China and Russia: Just ties, no alliance\\j an]VT99
One cannot ignore, however, a growing concern in some of the neighbouring countries in the AsiaPacific as to how this trade in advanced weaponry may influence the regional power balance.
It is therefore in the basic national interests of Russia to have China participating actively in a dialogue process on regional security while continuing to assist China in its legitimate plans to modernise its conventional defence.
CHINA AND RUSSIA HAVE REVIVED CLOSE POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC TIES
Gennady Chufrin, October 10, 1997 [Professor Gennady Chufrin is Deputy Director of the Institute of Oriental Studies at the Academy of Science, Moscow. SINGAPORE STRAITS TIMES. HEADLINE: China and Russia : Just ties, no alliance\\jan]VT99
A REVIVAL of close political and economic ties between Russia and China, a phenomenon unthinkable only a decade ago, has become one of the most remarkable events in international relations. Indeed, after almost three decades of fierce ideological, political and even military confrontation, Moscow and Beijing regard each other now, if not as friends-in-arms as they were in the late 1940s and early 1950s, then certainly as good partners. Numerous and re gular exchanges of official delegations, coupled with a growing number of joint political statements and major business deals, may be seen as clear proof of such a development.
THE NEW CHINA/RUSSIAN AGREEMENT IS NOT A REVIVAL OF A MILITARY ALLIANCE
Gennady Chufrin, October 10, 1997 [Professor Gennady Chufrin is Deputy Director of the Institute of Oriental Studies at the Academy of Science, Moscow. SINGAPORE STRAITS TIMES. HEADLINE: China and Russia: Just ties, no alliance\\jan]VT99
First of all, it must be made very clear that a new Sino-Russian partnership does not in any way represent a resurrection of the former Sino-Soviet political and military alliance. It is well known that staying out of such alliances is one of the cornerstones of Chinese foreign policy. Entering into such alliances also goes against Russian national interests.
ACTING TO MARGINALIZE AND CONTAIN CHINA INSULTS ITS GLOBAL AMBITIONS
CONTAINMENT OF CHINA IS THE WORST POSSIBLE POLICY OPTION
Dr. Richard N. Haas, director of foreign policy study programs at Brookings Institution, 1997 [HEADLINE: HEARING OF THE SENATE FOREIGN RELATIONS COMMITTEE SUBJECT: US POLICY TOWARD CHINA. SEPTEMBER 17,1997. Federal News Service\\jan]VT99
Thank you, Mr. Chairman. The United States has a clear interest in seeing the emergence of a China that is prepared to act with restraint, both beyond its borders and toward its own citizens. Moreover, history suggests that the emergence of such a China is anything but automatic . It's possible that one day we might find ourselves in the position of facing a China that is expansionist and hostile. If this happens, so be it. But containing China would surely be costly, and dangerous and vastly interior to a China that was more responsible and a US-China relationship that was more cooperative. Obviously, this should be our goal.
GOOD SINO-US RELATIONS ARE BASED ON THE ASSUMPTION THAT EACH IS TREATED LIKE AN EQUAL
Yu Haisheng, DECEMBER 21, 1997 [Xinhua News Agency HEADLINE: yearender: major progress in sino-us, sino-russian ties in 1997\\jan]VT99
progress in sino-us and sino-russian ties was a conspicuous part of this year's international relations, with frequent contacts between big powers' leaders. since the end of the cold war, sino-us ties were stymied by issues like taiwan, human rights, and weapons proliferation and made slow progress. the stalemate was not in the two peoples' interest, nor was it in keeping with world trends in peace and development. a major problem for china and the united states remained how to transcend these differences, expand co-operation, avoid confrontation, and establish a stable and healthy relationship. on the other hand, sino-us political, economic, and military exchanges have clearly increased this year. major us political figures like vice-president al gore, secretary of state madeleine albright, and speaker of the house newt gingrich have visited china, paving the way for the sino-us summit. president jiang zemin's visit to the us in october was a new stage in sino-us ties. during the visit, the two countries issued the china-us joint statement, an important document for ties after the three previous joint communiques. the joint statement dealt with major common interests and their commitment to establish a constructive strategic partnership, and the basic status of the three joint communiques in developing ties. it says that china and the us handle bilateral ties in a global and strategic way and their problems in a spirit of equality and seeking common ground while reserving differences.