Affirmative section consultation and cooperation through dialogue networks



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AS THE USA-RUSSIA RELATIONSHIP DECLINES, NUCLEAR POWER RIVALRY BECOMES MORE POSSIBLE
Pavel Felgenhauer, Segodnya's defense and national security affairs editor, The Moscow Times, December 4, 1997, HEADLINE: DEFENSE DOSSIER: Yeltsin Rhetoric Old Tactic acs-VT99

As hopes of a real U.S.- Russia "partnership" fade away, however, some of the former nuclear power rivalry is slowly creeping back into relations. Nuclear disarmament agreements were once the cornerstone of U.S.-Russian detente, but today they are source of irritation and deadlock.


CONFLICT WITH IRAQ: RUSSIAN DIPLOMACY IS ESSENTIAL TO AVOID WAR
RUSSIAN DIPLOMACY SAVED THE USA FROM A DISASTER IN IRAQ
CAROL J. WILLIAMS and JOHN-THOR DAHLBURG; The Buffalo News, November 21, 1997, Pg. 8A, HEADLINE: RUSSIA RETURNS AS DIPLOMATIC PLAYER TO REASSERT INFLUENCE; IN ARAB WORLD acs-VT99

Having pulled the United States and Iraq back from the brink of another armed confrontation, Russia's leadership has scored its first major diplomatic victory of the post-Cold War era and demonstrated that it takes more than one superpower to keep the world at peace.

Russian Foreign Minister Yevgeny M. Primakov's success in persuading Iraqi President Saddam Hussein to lift his ouster of U.N. weapons inspectors also testifies to Moscow's resurgent clout in parts of the Arab world and confirms that the Kremlin is as defensive of its interests abroad as are Western leaders. Most significant, according to officials and analysts, is that Russia's resolution of the tense standoff between Baghdad and the international community enhances the solidarity and authority of the U.N. Security Council by showing that its often-squabbling permanent members can also be allies.
RUSSIAN DIPLOMACY SUCCESSFULLY DEALT WITH THE IRAQI CRISIS AND BOLSTERED THE UN IN THE PROCESS
CAROL J. WILLIAMS and JOHN-THOR DAHLBURG; The Buffalo News, November 21, 1997, Pg. 8A, HEADLINE: RUSSIA RETURNS AS DIPLOMATIC PLAYER TO REASSERT INFLUENCE; IN ARAB WORLD acs-VT99

Having engineered a defusing of the crisis and at the same time drawn the five permanent Security Council members into a unanimous position, Russia has been credited not only with a serious peacemaking contribution in the troubled Persian Gulf region, but also to the often-fractured United Nations.

In a message to Russian President Boris N. Yeltsin, French President Jacques Chirac said the success of the Geneva meeting marked the return of Moscow's influence in the Middle East and Persian Gulf "in a very spectacular manner."

Chirac also saluted Franco-Russian coordination, which he said "functioned remarkably during this crisis." France and China stood beside Russia in arguing against military measures to force Iraq into submission -- a threat raised by the United States and its stalwart ally, Britain.

Foreign policy analysts deemed the Russian-brokered deal a milestone in Moscow's recovery of international clout and a clever rescue of the United States from a crisis partly of its own making.
RUSSIA IS VERY INFLUENTIAL IN INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS, AND SAVED THE USA FROM A NEW GULF WAR
CAROL J. WILLIAMS and JOHN-THOR DAHLBURG; The Buffalo News, November 21, 1997, Pg. 8A, HEADLINE: RUSSIA RETURNS AS DIPLOMATIC PLAYER TO REASSERT INFLUENCE; IN ARAB WORLD acs-VT99

"The meeting in Geneva has demonstrated that after a protracted period of being weakened and bled white by domestic turmoil and dwindling prestige on the world stage, Russia is slowly but surely regaining its status as a world power," said Viktor A. Kremenyuk, a senior analyst at the USA-Canada Institute in Moscow.

He implied that the United States had to swallow its pride and rely on Russia to save it from what would have been a foreign policy disaster -renewed combat with Iraq.
RUSSIAN MEDIATION IN THE IRAQ CRISIS SHOWS THAT IT CAN BALANCE ITSELF BETWEEN OPPOSING AND COOPERATING WITH THE USA
Daniel Williams; Washington Post Service, International Herald Tribune, November 22, 1997, Pg. 7, HEADLINE: Russia's Balancing Act; How to Stand Up to U.S. but Avoid Conflict acs-VT99

Russia's successful mediation in the Iraq arms-inspection crisis vividly demonstrated the balancing act that is central to Moscow's foreign policy: a keen desire to show independence in world affairs balanced against a necessity to avoid conflict with the United States.


IRAQ WILL NOT HURT US-RUSSIAN RELATIONS BECAUSE RUSSIA IS HAVING AN ACTIVE ROLE IN RESOLVING THE DISPUTE
Linda Wertheimer, February 19,1998 [ALL THINGS CONSIDERED (NPR), HEADLINE: Angry Russians. \\ jan]VT99

LINDA WERTHEIMER, HOST: In Moscow today, a Kremlin spokesman said President Boris Yeltsin deserves credit for helping to persuade Kofi Annan to go to Baghdad. Russia has led the efforts to find a diplomatic solution to the crisis, and also led the opposition to Washington's threat of force. Both U.S. and Russian officials insist their disagreement over Iraq does not threaten their relations. But some observers see the present rift as a sign that Russia intends to challenge America's current dominance in world affairs.


WHETHER THE US USES AIR STRIKES OR NOT, RUSSIA'S INTERNATIONAL PRESTIGE WILL INCREASE BECAUSE OF THEIR ACTIONS
Askold Krushelnycky, February 8, 1997 [Scotland on Sunday. SECTION: Pg. 16 HEADLINE: Russia no longer able to play with the big guns \\ jan]VT99

But Russia, which depends on US-controlled financial institutions and investors to rebuild its shattered economy, is not in a position to pressure Washington. Kremenyuk said: "Moscow risks nothing even if its diplomacy achieves nothing. If the US decides not to strike, the credit will go to Russia. If it does strike, Russia will be remembered in the region for trying to stop the attack.


RUSSIA’S ROLE IN FOREIGN AFFAIRS IS EXTREMELY VALUABLE AND SUCCESSFUL BECAUSE THEY ARE A CRITICAL FRIEND OF THE USA AND CAN OPERATE AS AN INTERMEDIARY
Daniel Williams; Washington Post Service, International Herald Tribune, November 22, 1997, Pg. 7, HEADLINE: Russia's Balancing Act; How to Stand Up to U.S. but Avoid Conflict acs-VT99

Viktor Kremenyuk, deputy director of the USA-Canada Institute, said: ''The period of romantic love for America is over, but this doesn't mean we fight with America. It would be pointless. We want, however, to underscore the independence of Russia as an international player.''

Russia's role with Iraq is almost a textbook case of the two faces of its foreign policy, deftly put into play by Foreign Minister Yevgeni Primakov. On the one hand, Mr. Primakov expressed Russia's opposition to U.S. threats to use force against Iraq. He also pledged to take Baghdad's case for easing the United Nations' trade embargo on it to the UN Security Council. At the same time, Mr. Primakov held firm on the central demand of the United States: Iraq would have to let Americans be part of UN arms inspection teams. In a stroke, Mr. Primakov demonstrated that Russia can stand up to Washington and still be a responsible power.

In remarks made on Russian television Thursday, he stressed both aspects. ''It is natural that we insist that Iraq carry out all UN resolutions,'' he said. '' Russia achieved this without the use of force, without the use of weapons.''


RUSSIAN COOPERATION WAS ESSENTIAL IN STOPPING THE LAST GULF WAR THREAT
Stephen Sestanovich; Ambassador at, U.S. Department of State, Heritage Foundation , April 6, 1998; Pg. 1, HEADLINE: THE STATE OF RUSSIAN FOREIGN POLICY AND U.S. POLICY TOWARD RUSSIA; OPENING STATEMENT acs-VT99

In October, after much intensive consultation between us and in the U.N. Security Council, the Russians played a role in bringing Saddam back into compliance. Iraq's attempt on Tuesday to exclude American and British inspection team members is the latest step in a long-standing Iraqi campaign to ignore, frustrate, and deceive the international community about Iraq's enormous programs to develop weapons of mass destruction. What I have said about other issues applies here: The test of whether our interests converge or clash lies in whether we can find common ground on the big problems, one at a time.


RUSSIAN DIPLOMACY IN IRAQ GOT THEM TO COOPERATE WITH UN INSPECTORS
CAROL J. WILLIAMS and JOHN-THOR DAHLBURG; The Buffalo News, November 21, 1997, Pg. 8A, HEADLINE: RUSSIA RETURNS AS DIPLOMATIC PLAYER TO REASSERT INFLUENCE; IN ARAB WORLD acs-VT99

It was the intervention of Russia, which has long enjoyed symbiotic relations with Iraq, that compelled Baghdad to allow unhindered access to its weapons facilities by a U.N. Special Commission seeking to assess Baghdad's compliance with Security Council resolutions ordering elimination of its weapons.

Russian officials insist that no promises or concessions were made to Iraq. But Primakov did vow to press for accelerated, more efficient inspections in hopes that a positive judgment on compliance will be the outcome, opening the way for easing harsh economic sanctions imposed to punish Iraq's invasion of Kuwait in 1990.
CONFLICT AND GENOCIDE IN THE BALKANS: RUSSIAN COOPERATION IS ESSENTIAL
TENSIONS BETWEEN RUSSIA AND THE USA THREATEN PEACE IN THE BALKANS AND SPECIFICALLY KOSOVO
Martin Sieff; THE WASHINGTON TIMES, May 4, 1998, Pg. A1, HEADLINE: Russia raises stakes against NATO; Tensions increase as Moscow balks at alliance's growth // acs-VT99

Tensions also are growing between Russia and the United States in the violence-wracked Balkans.

In March, Yugoslavia's Russian-backed president, Slobodan Milosevic, launched a crackdown on ethnic Albanian dissidents in the Albanian-majority province of Kosovo. At least 80 people were killed by Serbian military and police forces.

Since then, there have been persistent skirmishes between Kosovan guerrillas and Serbian forces. Western diplomats have been ineffective in trying to force Mr. Milosevic to negotiate with the rebels, and there are fears of an all-out war.

If that happens, diplomats fear the conflict could spread to mainly Muslim Albania and multiracial Macedonia.

In such a confrontation, Russia could start by supporting Serbia and find itself swept along by the dynamics of the situation, said Paul Goble, deputy director of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty and former chief State Department analyst on Soviet nationalities. He spoke in a private capacity.

"The Russians have played the Serbian card on several occasions" by approving aggressive Serbian actions in the former Yugoslavia, Mr. Goble said. But "Moscow has often found it far easier to turn the Serbs on than to turn them off. Sometimes, they have become the prisoners of their own client, Milosevic."
USA CAN USE ITS POLICY TOWARDS RUSSIA TO INFLUENCE SERBIA TO MOLLIFY ITS ETHNIC SLAUGHTER IN KOSOVO
EDITORIAL Newsday (New York, NY), June 3, 1998, Page A40, HEADLINE: / IS KOSOVO THE NEXT BOSNIA? RUSSIA COULD STOP IT, acs-VT99

The one player with the influence to curb Serbia is its close Slav ally, Russia. But Moscow is not much inclined to cooperate with NATO, not after the alliance's ill-considered expansion. Russia, however, needs western help to bail it out of its currency crisis. Perhaps President Bill Clinton can persuade the Kremlin that, as a goodwill gesture, a sharp Russian twist of Milosevic's arm over Kosovo would be greatly appreciated. It's worth a try.


ATTEMPTS TO SEVER KOSOVO FROM SERBIA COULD CREATE A WAR FAR BIGGER THAN IN BOSNIA
Dmitry Gornostayev, Russian Press Digest, April 29, 1998, HEADLINE: Primakov Follows Ideas Of Gorchakov , acs-VT99

This problem, Primakov pointed out, is still a timely one today. He warned that attempts to amputate the province of Kosovo from Serbia could lead to a war "even bigger than the one in Bosnia." Moscow, he declared, has all grounds to believe that there are forces that want to resolve the situation around Kosovo by creating a third republic in Yugoslavia. Russia is against this, Foreign Minister Primakov emphasized.


SERBIAN ACTIONS IN KOSOVO RISK A NEW ROUND OF ETHNIC SLAUGHTER
EDITORIAL Newsday (New York, NY), June 3, 1998, Page A40, HEADLINE: / IS KOSOVO THE NEXT BOSNIA? RUSSIA COULD STOP IT, acs-VT99

Kosovo is not yet the sort of household word for ethnic slaughter that its Balkan neighbor, Bosnia, has become. But Kosovo could join the lexicon of political horrors if the Serbian army doesn't stop its campaign of massacres and artillery barrages, which are driving thousands of ethnic Albanians out of the Serbian province of Kosovo into refugee camps beyond its borders


SERBIAN OPPRESSION IN KOSOVO HAS INCREASED
EDITORIAL Newsday (New York, NY), June 3, 1998, Page A40, HEADLINE: / IS KOSOVO THE NEXT BOSNIA? RUSSIA COULD STOP IT, acs-VT99

Albania, after receiving more than 1,000 refugees fleeing the fighting between Serb troops and Kosovar separatists, is now leveling charges of "ethnic cleansing" against Milosevic. That may be an overstatement, but it is undeniable that Serbia's suppression of Kosovar rebels has risen dramatically.


MIDDLE EAST: RUSSIAN COOPERATION IS ESSENTIAL
WITHOUT RUSSIAN HELP IN THE MIDDLE EAST, THERE WOULD BE NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION AND WAR
Michael O'Hanlon & Julien Hartley, Brookings Institution, The Washington Post, December 16, 1997, Pg. A27, HEADLINE: Why Not Let Russia Play a Role? acs-VT99

Jim Hoagland is wrong to claim that Russia's role in the Iraq crisis works against American interests [op-ed, Nov. 21], just as Henry Kissinger is wrong in his Dec. 7 op-ed to criticize Russia for allegedly acting "as the lawyer of Saddam." There is no better way for Russia to exert influence on the world stage than by serving the causes of nonproliferation and international stability.

Without Russia's role in this crisis, we could be facing further arms proliferation or even war in the Middle East.
RUSSIA WILL PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN THE MIDDLE EAST PEACE PROCESS
Christophe Beaudufe, Agence France Presse, November 19, 1997 HEADLINE: Russia gains prestige as mediator in Iraq-UN crisis acs-VT99

"For the first time since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, Russia can play an important diplomatic role in an international crisis because for the first time it is needed by the opposing sides," commented Andrei Piontkovsky, head of the Moscow Centre for Strategic Studies.

Despite its role as co-sponsor of the Middle East peace process, Russia has had less diplomatic clout in the region than the United States, but the latest crisis could help restore the balance, analysts said.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF IRAN, RUSSIAN MIDDLE EAST POLICY HAS ASSISTED AMERICAN MIDDLE EAST POLICY
Robert Friedman, Prof. Political Science Baltimore Hebrew Univ., 1997; THE FOREIGN POLICY OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION, p. 153-154, acs-VT99

A final conclusion to be drawn is that, with the exception of arms sales to Iran, Moscow has, despite occasional rhetorical outbursts to the contrary, cooperated with key American policies in the Middle East. This is particularly evident in the case of Russian policy towards the Arab-Israeli conflict, but, on balance it has also been evident in Russian policy towards Iraq. Thus Moscow has supported the US effort to bring about an Arab-Israeli peace settlement, in the main has supported US punitive bombing of Iraq, and has not unilaterally broken the US-led embargo against Iraq. Both areas are high on the American priority list, and Moscow has not chosen to jeopardize the Russian-American relationship over them. Even in the three areas where there have been US-Russian disputes (Bosnia, arms to Iran, and the conditional lifting of the Iraqi embargo), Moscow has not acted alone but with the support of America's NATO allies (Britain and France in the case of Bosnia, France and Turkey in the case of conditionally lifting the Iraqi embargo, and Britain, France, Germany and Japan in the case of Iran, since all four of these countries sell 'dual use' equipment to Tehran).


CENTRAL ASIA: RUSSIA CAN WORK WITH IRAN TO STOP ETHNIC FIGHTING
RUSSIA AND IRAN COOPERATE TO BRING PEACE TO FLASHPOINTS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ASIA
Robert O. Freedman, president of the Baltimore Hebrew University, Heritage Foundation Reports, April 6, 1998; Pg. 16, HEADLINE: PRIMAKOV AND THE MIDDLE EAST acs-VT99

Finally, a greatly weakened Russia has found Iran a useful ally in dealing with a number of very sensitive Middle Eastern, Caucasian, Transcaucasian, and Central and Southwest Asian political hot spots. These include Chechnya, where Iran kept a very low profile despite the use by the Chechen rebels of Islamic themes in their conflict with Russia; Tajikistan, where Iran helped Russia achieve a political settlement, albeit a shaky one; Afghanistan, where both Russia and Iran have stood together against Taliban efforts to seize control of the country; and Azerbaijan, which neither Iran, with a sizable Azeri population of its own, nor Russia wishes to see emerge as a significant economic and military power.


INDIA: RUSSIA HAS CRITICAL LINES OF INFLUENCE OPEN TO INDIA
RUSSIA WILL NOT IMPOSE NUCLEAR SANCTIONS ON INDIA
MICHAEL R. GORDON, The New York Times, May 14, 1998, Section A; Page 13; HEADLINE: NUCLEAR ANXIETY: IN RUSSIA; Kremlin Soft-Pedals Its Rebuke to India, and Opposes Sanctions // acs-VT99

Russia today reaffirmed its refusal to join other countries in punishing India for resuming nuclear tests, and has so far failed to register an especially strong diplomatic protest. President Boris N. Yeltsin still plans to visit India later this year. And some top officials at Russia's Ministry of Atomic Energy want to go ahead with plans to sell India two nuclear power plants.

"Sanctions are an extreme measure, which is not always productive," Foreign Minister Yevgeny M. Primakov said. "Therefore, I don't think we shall support any sanctions against India."
RUSSIA WILL NOT INVOKE SANCTIONS ON INDIA FOR ITS NUCLEAR TESTS
Maxim Yusin, Russian Press Digest, May 14, 1998, HEADLINE: Moscow Will Not Quarrel With Its Ally // acs-VT99

Moscow is calm about India's nuclear blasts and will hardly resort to any sanctions to punish Delhi, says observer.

In contrast to the outrage sparked off throughout the world by India's latest nuclear blasts, Moscow's reaction is calm, writes IZVESTIA. In the Russian corridors of power no one even thinks about economic sanctions or any other moves to punish Delhi. So far, the Kremlin has confined itself just to mild condemnation in word.
RUSSIA VALUES ITS CLOSE RELATIONSHIP WITH INDIA
MICHAEL R. GORDON, The New York Times, May 14, 1998, Section A; Page 13; HEADLINE: NUCLEAR ANXIETY: IN RUSSIA; Kremlin Soft-Pedals Its Rebuke to India, and Opposes Sanctions // acs-VT99

"Frankly, India is a very good friend of ours and we have very good relations," Mr. Yeltsin said on Tuesday. "During my visit to India this year I shall make every effort to somehow overcome the problem."

India's tests have confronted Russia with a difficult decision: whether to sell nuclear power plants to India in a deal that is worth $1.5 billion to $2 billion. The contract was to be made final this year.

Moscow has argued that the nuclear plants are intended for civilian use and would be subject to international monitoring to prevent them from contributing to India's military potential.


RUSSIA AND INDIA ARE DETERMINED TO REMAIN CLOSE FRIENDS FOR STRATEGIC INTERESTS
MICHAEL R. GORDON, The New York Times, May 14, 1998, Section A; Page 13; HEADLINE: NUCLEAR ANXIETY: IN RUSSIA; Kremlin Soft-Pedals Its Rebuke to India, and Opposes Sanctions // acs-VT99

The muffled criticism is also a matter of foreign policy. India's rivalry with China makes it a potential counterweight to Beijing in the Russian strategic calculus -- just as it was in Soviet times.

India's strained relations with Washington also make New Delhi a sympathetic partner for the Russian Foreign Ministry, whose influence has shrunk since the collapse of the Soviet Union.

"In Russia's corridors of power they don't allow for the possibility of economic sanctions or the recalling of ambassadors," the newspaper Izvestia observed today. "Moscow seems ready to close its eyes to the violations of international norms."


RUSSIA HAS INFLUENCE IN INDONESIA AND SOUTHEAST ASIA
RUSSIA IS ACTIVELY WORKING TO INCREASE ITS MILITARY TIES WITH INDONESIA
Igor Shchegolev, February 13, 1998 [TASS. HEADLINE: Yeltsin to visit Indonesia in first half of 1998 \\ jan]VT99

The two presidents are also expected to discuss the military- technical cooperation. "The interest of Indonesia to Russia in that sphere is not limited to warplanes," the diplomat said. "We are disappointed by the cancellation of the deal because of the financial crisis in South East Asia, but we take into account the fact Jakarta has not revised a political decision to develop the military-technical cooperation with Russia. The sides may also discuss the cooperation in nuclear power engineering including the supplies of vessel-based floating nuclear power plants to Jakarta, Losyukov said. Indonesia is interested in the cooperation in the space exploration, including the launch of its satellites by Russian rocket-boosters and a flight of its cosmonaut on a Russian spacecraft. Russia is actively increasing its ties with Indonesia.


A PRESIDENTIAL VISIT THIS SPRING WILL CEMENT A NUMBER OF POLITICAL DECLARATIONS AND ECONOMIC AGREEMENTS
Igor Shchegolev, February 13, 1998 [TASS. HEADLINE: Yeltsin to visit Indonesia in first half of 1998 \\ jan]VT99

President Boris Yeltsin's visit to Indonesia is scheduled for the first half of this year, presidential spokesman Sergei Yastrzhembsky told Itar-Tass on Friday. The Foreign Ministry and other departments are actively getting ready for the trip.

Moscow expects to sign a political declaration and a number of economic agreements as a result of the visit to Jakarta, a high-ranking staffer of the Russian Foreign Ministry official told Itar-Tass earlier. "Russia is closely watching the development of the internal political life in Indonesia, which is expected to have presidential elections in spring, and builds its policy in accordance to that," the diplomat said, adding that the exact date of the visit has not been specified.
RUSSIA IS ACTIVELY INCREASING ITS SECURITY RELATIONS WITH VIETNAM
Igor Zhukov, January 22, 1998 [TASS. HEADLINE: Russia's Duma to discuss Russian-Vietnamese cooperation \\ jan]VT99

Russia's State Duma, or the lower house of parliament, will hold on Thursday a roundtable discussion on Russian-Vietnamese cooperation.

The roundtable organizers consider the development of relations between the two countries to be among the high priorities of Russia's foreign policy in Southeast Asia.

Participants in the round table are scheduled to discuss a package of issues related to the economic, military and technical cooperation between Russia and Vietnam. They are to come up with recommendations for the Russian government to expand partnership between the two countries in the economic, scientific, technological and cultural spheres.


RUSSIAN DIPLOMACY AND FOREIGN POLICY IS UNRELIABLE AND WEAK
UNIQUE PROBLEMS IN RUSSIA MAKE FOREIGN POLICY PROGRESS EXTREMELY DIFFICULT
F. Stephen Larrabee & Theodore Karasik, National Defense Research Institute, 1997; FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY DECISIONMAKING UNDER YELTSIN, p. 3 , acs-VT99

Bureaucratic rivalry and policy incoherence, of course, are not unique to Russia. The same problems can be found in many other countries-including the United states. But the problems have been more acute in Russia for three reasons:

*Russian politics and society are in a state of acute flux.

*The new decisionmaking structures are weak and do not have

deep institutional roots.

*There is no clear consensus on Russia's national interests.


QUESTIONS ABOUT YELTSIN'S HEALTH DOOM RUSSIA'S FOREIGN POLICY
F. Stephen Larrabee & Theodore Karasik, National Defense Research Institute, 1997; FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY DECISIONMAKING UNDER YELTSIN, p. X, acs-VT99

The uncertain state of Yeltsin's health, however, casts a dark shadow over Russian politics and U.S.-Russian relations. Yeltsin's continued illness or incapacitation could accentuate the behind- the -scenes jockeying and struggle for power, making it even more difficult for Russia to pursue a coherent and consistent foreign policy. But even if Yeltsin's health holds, he is unlikely to be able to exert the type of strong dynamic leadership that characterized his first several years in office.

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