Affirmative section consultation and cooperation through dialogue networks



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RUSSIAN MEDIA IS NOW PAVING THE WAY FOR NEMTSOV TO REPLACE YELTSIN IN 2000
Georgi Shakhnazarov, the Soviet Academy of Political Science, The Daily Yomiuri, August 18, 1997, SECTION: Pg. 6, HEADLINE: INSIGHTS INTO THE WORLD/Boris Nemtsov: Yeltsin's heir apparent? acs-VT99

If any proof was needed, it was provided by the electronic media and the progovernment press. With the apparent blessing of the president, they started to build up Nemtsov as Russia's next president. Although he has spent barely a few weeks in Moscow and has not accomplished anything significant, leading commentators have said that opinion surveys indicate a surge in Nemtsov's popularity, and that he enjoys the trust of almost half of those polled. It is true that the elections are still a long way off--but the party of power has a point man and Yeltsin has an heir apparent.


THE PRESIDENT RUNS THE SHOW - RUSSIAN ELECTIONS ARE DEMOCRATIC, BUT DEMOCRACY STOPS THERE
Grigory Yavlinsky; Russian economist and the leader of Yabloko, a democratic, reformist political party, Foreign Affairs, May, 1998 / June, 1998; Pg. 67, HEADLINE: Russia's Phony Capitalism acs-VT99

Russia's democratic institutions have not developed as fully as its elections. As the recent cabinet firings show, the system of checks and balances is underdeveloped, leaving the country prone to the whims of a mercurial chief executive. The rule of law is often not respected. The judicial branch of government remains overly influenced by the executive branch. The lower house of parliament has made some headway in becoming more than a mere talking chamber in which the occasional fistfight breaks out, and the executive branch now has to lobby the Duma to pass the budget, the START II treaty, and other crucial matters. But Yeltsin and his team still reserve the option of bypassing the Duma altogether -- thereby ignoring the constitution -- if the Duma disagrees with an executive initiative or is unwilling to be co-opted by promises of some new monthly leadership meeting with the president and prime minister. This strategy is routinely applied to the budget, where compromises are made to ensure passage and are then ignored throughout the year. Another example is the persistent rumor that Yeltsin will seek an unconstitutional third term as president.


LINKS: THINGS THE AFFIRMATIVE MIGHT DO WHICH WOULD HELP THE COMMUNISTS GAIN PUBLIC SUPPORT AGAINST THE GOVERNMENT IN POWER
NEW USA SUPERPOWER INITIATIVES INCREASE ANTI-AMERICAN SENTIMENT IN RUSSIA
ANTI-AMERICAN SENTIMENT IS INCREASING IN RUSSIA BECAUSE THE US IS TRYING TO ACT AS THE GLOBAL BOSS
GENNADY ZYUGANOV, FEBRUARY 4,1998 [Official Kremlin Int'l News Broadcast. HEADLINE: PRESS CONFERENCE WITH CPRF LEADER \\ jan]VT99

Zyuganov: I believe that the third world war in qualitatively new forms, financial, economic, information-psychological forms, is already raging on the expanses of Russia. And we arc witnessing a redivision of the world. The Potsdam post-war epoch is over. The balance of forces that was achieved by the USSR and the United States has been finally disrupted. And against this background we see a redivision of spheres of influence by qualitatively new means. For instance, NATO is expanding, there is a new division of spheres of influence in the Balkans. A similar attempt is now being made in the Middle East. They want to become established masters of the planet capable of dictating their terms to everybody. As to a hot war, we recently had one in the south, in Chechnya. This war never stopped in the Middle East, And massive strikes will result, will bring about massive acts of terrorism and subversion and may develop into a large-scale conflict. I mean the possibility of sophisticated systems being taken from under the appropriate control. This will lead to a broader confrontation as well. Anti-American sentiments are growing on all continents and in all countries. Anyone I talked with, even the Europeans, do not like the position of the "boss", not a brother, but the boss who tries to dictate his terms. This is fraught with dire consequences.


FOREIGN POLICY ISSUES WILL DOMINATE THE NEXT RUSSIAN ELECTION
Dmitry Trenin, deputy director of the Moscow Carnegie Center, The Moscow Times, April 14, 1998, HEADLINE: Words to Deeds in Riga , acs-VT99

It is clear that foreign-policy problems are becoming more significant for voters. The potential here for populism practically guarantees that, unlike elections in 1995 and 1996, the next parliamentary and especially presidential elections will have a clearly expressed foreign-policy dimension. The United States, NATO, Iraq and the Balkans are far away; the majority of Russians are rather indifferent to them. But the former Soviet republics and their Russian -speaking populations are another matter.


WIDENING INCOME GAP MERELY FUELS THE NEO COMMUNIST AND NATIONALIST MOVEMENTS
Grigory Yavlinsky; Russian economist and the leader of Yabloko, a democratic, reformist political party, Foreign Affairs, May, 1998 / June, 1998; Pg. 67, HEADLINE: Russia's Phony Capitalism acs-VT99

In real terms, government pensions and wages were cut to 40 percent or less of their original value, and the government still cannot collect enough taxes to cover these expenses. Tax receipts have fallen to less than 20 percent of the country's GDP. Meanwhile, external debt has skyrocketed, and domestic debt, which was next to nothing just a decade ago, has reached almost 15 percent of GDP. Servicing these debts, paid out to local bankers and foreign speculators at exorbitant interest rates, will take no less than 25 percent of total government expenditure in 1998. The current Russian market economy has created a handful of super-wealthy individuals while leaving the rest behind to struggle. It is no wonder that these economic policies resulted in some 250 communists and 50 ultranationalist Zhirinovskyites being elected to the 450-seat State Duma in 1995.


INSULTS TO RUSSIA ADVERSELY EFFECT RUSSIAN PUBLIC OPINION AND INFLUENCE THE ELECTIONS
Vladimir Mikheyev, Russian Press Digest, May 26, 1998, HEADLINE: U.S. Congress Introduces Sanctions Against Russia: IZVESTIA, p. 1 acs-VT99

The apparent aim behind the congressional resolution is to demonstratively punish Moscow which is still officially designated as "a partner for peace" but it ignores serious implications for Russia's internal situation in the run-up to the presidential election in the year 2000. The unfriendly act confirms the impression that Russia has been slighted in the past and will continue to be slighted in the future. A Russian public opinion poll taken on the eve of the G8 summit in Birmingham revealed that 64% of respondents with a university education were of the opinion that Yeltsin and Russia were regarded by world leaders as playing a role of secondary importance in world affairs. Now more Russians will subscribe to that view.


ACTION AGAINST THE EXISTING RUSSIAN GOVERNMENT ONLY HELPS THE COMMUNIST PARTY
Vladimir Mikheyev, Russian Press Digest, May 26, 1998, HEADLINE: U.S. Congress Introduces Sanctions Against Russia: IZVESTIA, p. 1 acs-VT99

The congressional slap in Russia's face will be welcomed by Zyuganov's Communists in so far as it has supplied them with ideological ammunition to argue their case on behalf of their opposition to Russia's disarmament and NATO's eastward expansion.

By its act the U.S. Congress has made a major contribution to the formulation of Moscow's new foreign-policy objectives aimed at overcoming the costly illusions of the Kozyrev era (the Duma has indefinitely postponed the ratification of the START-2 Treaty). There is also the prospect of "a national idea" emerging from Russia's "humiliation," which will be exploited by a strongman dangling it as a method of wooing the electorate.
IMPACT: END OF THE YELTSIN ERA IS THE MOST DANGEROUS PART OF THE RUSSIAN TRANSITION
THERE IS WIDESPREAD CONCERN ABOUT THE DANGERS OF THE END OF THE YELTSIN ERA
Fred Coleman, USA TODAY, April 6, 1998, Pg. 1A, HEADLINE: Who's running Russia? Even aides say he works few hours, lacks focus acs-VT99

The opposition asks if Yeltsin, 67, is fit enough to stay in office. "There is only one important question," says liberal Grigory Yavlinsky. "How is the president making his decisions and what condition is he in to be making those decisions?"

Communist opposition is shriller. "In a fit of unpredictable action, the president could, after all, unexpectedly press the nuclear button," the pro-communist newspaper Sovietskaya Rossiya warned. It said Yeltsin should resign or be impeached. Thoughtful Russians, with no partisan political agenda are increasingly worried.
AS LONG AS YELTSIN REMAINS IN CHARGE THERE WILL BE NO BIG WAR -- THE ISSUE IS WHAT COMES AFTER HE LEAVES
Alexander Yanov, Moscow News, August 21, 1997, HEADLINE: Boris Yeltsin: Victor or Vanquished acs-VT99

It could be replied that the imperial "patriots" lost the 1996 elections. And as long as Yeltsin remains in charge, there will neither be a big war with the "near abroad," nor a military confrontation with the West. Duma deputy Albert Makashov may call upon Russia to reply to NATO's expansion with a "military-strategic partnership with Iraq and Cuba" as much as he pleases, or ask it to provide Libya and Iran with "everything that is necessary to lead a modern war" (i.e. nuclear weapons) - his call will remain hot air. That is so, but only as long as Yeltsin remains in charge. The question is, what comes after Yeltsin.


COMMUNIST REGIME WILL ATTEMPT TO RECONQUER THE FORMER SOVIET STATES
ALL OF YELTSIN’S POTENTIAL SUCCESSORS WANT TO RECONSTITUTE THE RUSSIAN EMPIRE IN ONE FORM OR ANOTHER
Alexander Yanov, Moscow News, August 21, 1997, HEADLINE: Boris Yeltsin: Victor or Vanquished acs-VT99

If we go through the list of his potential successors, a startling picture is suddenly revealed: Three of the five (Luzhkov, Lebed and Zyuganov) are convinced that Sevastopol is part of Russia. (That is, they are precisely following Dugin's scenario described in the chapter called "The Geo-Political De-Stabilization of the Ukraine," in a book which they probably haven't even read, which makes it even more ominous.) The fourth, Chernomyrdin, publicly declares that " Russia is not a country but a continent." (That is, without noticing it, he starts using Dugin's language.) And the fifth, Nemtsov, takes as advisor one of the former leaders of the "party of the big war," Viktor Aksyuchits. Such, then, is the state of affairs.


THE COMMUNISTS AND NATIONALISTS WILL ATTEMPT MILITARY REINTEGRATION OF THE FORMER SOVIET STATES
Gennady I. Chufrin and Harold H. Saunders; Russian Academy of Sciences and the Kettering Foundation, The Washington Quarterly, 1997 Autumn; Pg. 35, HEADLINE: The Politics of Conflict Prevention in Russia and the Near Abroad acs-VT99

Finally, a wide range of public groups, movements, and political parties, ranging from Communists to nationalists, strongly supports early and comprehensive reintegration. The Communist Party probably takes the most radical stand on this issue. The Communists and their allies became the largest single bloc in the new parliament elected in December 1995. They passed a resolution renouncing the December 1991 agreement to dissolve the Soviet Union. Communists have voiced the intent to approach the governments, parliaments, and peoples of all former Soviet republics with a proposal for a voluntary restoration of a single state. They justify their stand not only by results of public opinion polls on this issue held periodically in Russia but also by the results of similar polls conducted in other former Soviet republics, like one in Belarus in December 1995.


COMMUNIST PARTY CONSIDERS LATVIA A DANGEROUS FASCIST STATE
Tony Barber, Business Day (South Africa), April 21, 1998; Pg. 13, HEADLINE: MOSCOW STILL REGARDS THE US WITH PRICKLY RESENTMENT , acs-VT99

Communist leader Gennady Zyuganov hinted last month at what Baltic states could expect if he rose to power. "A fascist regime has been reviving in Latvia, and it's the most loathsome one can imagine," he growled.


COMMUNISTS WILL RAPIDLY REMILITARIZE
COMMUNIST RUSSIA PERCEIVES THAT THE US IS USING ITS MILITARY TO DANGEROUSLY PROMOTE ITS SELF INTEREST. THEY BELIEVE THAT THEY NEED TO INCREASE THEIR MILITARY TO ACHIEVE A BALANCE OF POWER
GENNADY ZYUGANOV, FEBRUARY 4,1998 [Official Kremlin Int'l News Broadcast. HEADLINE: PRESS CONFERENCE WITH CPRF LEADER \\ jan]VT99

Zyuganov: Yesterday's intensive discussion showed once again that a balance of interests can exist only on the basis of a balance of force. The disintegration of our army, of our military industrial complex and military science undermines the balance of forces not only in Europe, but on the planet as a whole. Americans speak a great deal about humanism and civilization, about democratic principles, but they act like a drunk and disorderly cowboy ignoring the Security Council, the United Nations and its NATO allies, and the public opinion. In the Council of Europe, the Europarliament where 30 parliaments are represented, I asked the question, who is in favor of using military force? Let us exert our efforts to prevent this conflict. Not a single deputy spoke in favor of a military solution. The same happened at a meeting with Arab ambassadors. During the negotiations with the leaders of major Arab countries such as Syria, Lebanon, Egypt, Jordan and Iraq, it was the same. So, who wants a military solution? The Americans who today have gained an unchallengeable supremacy and are prepared to promote their dominance and their ambitions.


RUSSIA’S FOREIGN POLICY WILL BE DICTATED BY WHOEVER REPLACES YELTSIN
JIM MANN, Los Angeles Times, April 8, 1998, Part A; Page 5; HEADLINE: Clinton's Call-Boris Policy Still Vital but Has Its Limits acs-VT99

Was Russia's recent campaign with France and China to limit American action against Saddam Hussein a harbinger of new foreign-policy alignments?

How will Russia react in the years after NATO expands its membership to Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic? And what will happen if and when NATO tries to bring in other new countries besides these three?

The answers may well depend on who will lead Russia after the departure of Yeltsin, who is 67 and whose term expires in 2000.


DIPLOMATIC PARTNERSHIP
THESIS: Russia is an incredibly important dioplomatic partner for the United States all over the world. Russia is able to act as an intermiediary and neutral partner while at the same time pursuing the foreign policy goals of peace and stability. The Russians are concerned that America appreciates their role, and is angered when the USA does not take their direct interests and desires into account. The affirmative plan angers Russia’s leadership, so they do not act constructivelky in diplomatic partnerships which are needed in many of the world’s hot spots.
A. US-RUSSIAN RELATIONS ARE NOT CEMENTED, AND RUSSIA HATES BEING TREATED AS A JUNIOR PLAYER
CRAIG R. WHITNEY, March 15, 1998 [The New York Times. SECTION: Section 4; Page 4; Column 1; HEADLINE: The World; The Not- SO Superpower Society \\ jan an]VT99

As frustrated former superpowers, they both hate to be reminded that they are no longer what they used to be -- in France's case the Napoleonic Empire that dominated the continent almost two centuries ago, and in Russia's, the Soviet Union, which collapsed in 1991.

Every time the French hear the words "the world's only superpower" emanating from Washington, they wince, and as for the Russians, the phrase practically rubs their noses in their own loss of power and global influence, even though Russia does still have enough nuclear missiles to blow the world to smithereens.

Still, the French are American NATO allies, and the Russians, for all the Bill-and-Boris camaraderie at summit meetings, are still somewhere between friends and former adversaries.


B. IN THE POST NATO EXPANSION WORLD RUSSIA IS LOOKING FOR REASONS TO ASSERT ITSELF AGAINST US ACTION
JAMES MEEK, March 10, 1998 [The Guardian (London). SECTION: The Guardian Foreign Page; Pg. 13. HEADLINE: Moscow sees world through eastern eyes \\ jan]VT99

Russia's emergent foreign policy is a kind of crooked homage to the United States. The buzz words of Moscow's armchair geopoliticians - national interest, vital economic interests, spheres of influence - are all lifted from US policyspeak.

That makes it no easier for diplomats trying to keep any one of the many points of tension with Russia from leading to the first serious breakdown in relations since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Satisfaction at Mr Primakov's endorsement of limited Nato expansion and the cooling of the Iraqi crisis is already fading as Kosovo and the Baltic states' desire to join Nato loom.

Russia's determination not to be done out of a profitable deal is spawning numerous other disagreements with Washington, from its supply of anti-aircraft missiles to the Greek Cypriots to the sale of nuclear reactors to Iran.


C. ON EVERY FOREIGN POLICY FRONT, GOALS WILL BE BETTER MET WITH RUSSIAN COOPERATION
EDITORIAL, St. Louis Post-Dispatch, April 29, 1998, Pg. B6, HEADLINE: FREEZING OUT THE BEAR , acs-VT99

The Clinton administration errs when it tries to paper over that fact. The United States needs Russian cooperation to control and dismantle Soviet nuclear arms, to keep the peace in Bosnia and to get Iraq to comply with U.N. resolutions. That's just the start. The United States will get further fighting terrorism, organized crime and drugs with Russian cooperation than without.

Ultimately, Russia can be more destabilizing and destructive of European and U.S. security interests than Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic combined and multiplied.
LINKS TO ANGERING RUSSIA’S LEADERS
RUSSIAN FOREIGN POLICY HAS SHIFTED FROM BEING LARGELY IDEOLOGICAL TO BEING LARGELY PRACTICAL
Roger Kanet, Prof. Political Science Univ. of Illinois, 1997; THE FOREIGN POLICY OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION, p. 193 , acs-VT99

A third identifiable trend, one already alluded to above, is the shift from an ideologically to a pragmatically based foreign policy. Based on this trend, Russian policy is driven less by the desire to spread its ideas to the far comers of the earth than by desires to ensure territorial integrity and economic growth. In short, more decisions are now made according to a cost-benefit analysis that emphasizes concrete benefits to be gained by Russia in pursuing a particular line of policy.


DIRECT USA INFLUENCE IN COUNTRIES OF THE FORMER SOVIET UNION IS TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE TO RUSSIA
Xinhua News Agency, MAY 22, 1998, HEADLINE: russia opposes u.s. attempt to broaden sphere of influence; ITEM NO: 0522083 acs-VT99

russia is firmly opposed to the united states' attempt to spread its sphere of influence to countries of the former soviet union, deputy foreign minister georgy mamedov said friday. speaking at the state duma, or the lower house of the parliament, about a report submitted by a u.s. senior official to a u.s. senate committee on u.s. foreign policy in outer caucasus, the caspian sea and central asia, mamedov said the u.s. action "was unacceptable," the itar tass news agency reported. mamedov said that one of the priorities in russia's foreign policy was to develop relations with outer caucasus and central asian countries, adding it was its main task to further strengthen ties with these countries. " russia will not seek confrontation in the region, but will protect its own interests there because the region concerns russia's security and territorial integrity," he said.


ATTEMPTS TO BUILD UP RUSSIA RESULT IN EMBARRASSING IT
GEORGIE ANNE GEYER, The Times-Picayune, August 16, 1997; Pg. B7, HEADLINE: BE HONEST -- 'POTEMKIN RUSSIA' NOT GREAT POWER acs-VT99

We thought we had learned from the disastrous Versailles Treaty in 1919, which ended the World War I. Germany's punishment was so cruelly punitive that it led to World War II. Following that war, the Allies rebuilt Germany and Japan, leading to one of the greatest periods of history. Once Soviet Russia was collapsing of its own internal weight between 1985 and 1991, the Western foreign ministries opted not to humiliate Russia. But American efforts to build up Russia have broadcast to the world its failings.


RUSSIAN FOREIGN POLICY IS SUCCESSFUL AND SKILLFUL
RUSSIA IS EXTREMELY ACTIVE IN WORLD AFFAIRS AND IS NOT ISOLATIONIST
Strobe Talbott; Deputy Secretary of State, US Department of State Dispatch, August 18, 1997; Pg. 22; HEADLINE: The end of the beginning: the emergence of a new Russia; acs-VT99

The initial signs are auspicious. The new Russia has already gone a long way toward repudiating the old Soviet Union's delusions that autarky and self-isolation are even options for a modern state. Russia today plays an active role in organizations of which it was a founding member, such as the UN and the OSCE. It is also knocking at the door of those from which it has been excluded. Over the past two years, it has become a member of the ASEAN Regional Forum and the Council of Europe, agreed to join the Paris Club, and it has strengthened its ties to the European Union.


AN EFFECTIVE RUSSIAN FOREIGN POLICY ORGANIZATION HAS NOW EMERGED
F. Stephen Larrabee & Theodore Karasik, National Defense Research Institute, 1997; FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY DECISIONMAKING UNDER YELTSIN, p. ix-x , acs-VT99

ln short, after a number of fits and false starts, there are signs that a more disciplined and effective national decisionmaking process is beginning to emerge. The creation of the Defense Council in particular has been a major improvement and has given Yeltsin a powerful tool for pushing military reform, which is likely to be one of the top issues on the Kremlin's agenda in the coming years.


RUSSIA HAS BEEN ABLE TO ACHIEVE ITS MOST IMPORTANT FOREIGN POLICY GOALS
Peter Shearman, Prof. Political Science Univ. Melbourne, 1997, THE FOREIGN POLICY OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION, p. 25, acs-VT99

Third, Russia has been remarkably successful in achieving many of its stated foreign policy goals. Although the initial policy focus on the West did not bring the expected economic gains, Russia has been successful in maintaining the integrity of the state, reclaiming its influence (without military occupation) in the 'near abroad', and gaining access to important global and Western institutions without having compromised its sovereignty.


RUSSIAN COOPERATION IS ESSENTIAL FOR AVOIDING CONFLICTS AND WARS
RUSSIAN COOPERATION IS ESSENTIAL FOR SOLUTIONS IN THE BALKANS AND THE MIDDLE EAST
Tony Barber, Business Day (South Africa), April 21, 1998; Pg. 13, HEADLINE: MOSCOW STILL REGARDS THE US WITH PRICKLY RESENTMENT , acs-VT99

It is harder to see what Russia might gain by standing up for Slobodan Milosevic, the Yugoslav president, in his disputes with the US over Bosnia and Kosovo. "We have grown used to the logic that says an enemy of Washington is our friend," said Konstantin Eggert, a foreign affairs expert at the Izvestia newspaper.

In February, Yeltsin boasted: "Today it is clear to all that without Russia it is impossible to reach productive decisions on thorny international issues, be it the Bosnian problem, the Arab-Israeli conflict or the middle Eastern situation." Liberal critics of the Yeltsin administration's foreign policy would argue that Russia is picking the wrong quarrel when it defends Iraq and Serbia against the US.
BAD USA-RUSSIA RELATIONS NOW TRANSLATE INTO GEO-POLITICAL UPHEAVALS IN THE FUTURE
Sergei Rogov, US and Canada Studies Institute Director, Official Kremlin Int'l News Broadcast, DECEMBER 9, 1997, HEADLINE: INTERVIEW REGARDING RUSSIAN-AMERICAN RELATIONS acs-VT99

The growing alienation between Russia and the United States is giving cause for worry. It bodes ill for international security and stability. It's unlikely that the United States will remain the only super power. Hopefully, Russia will not always be in an enfeebled state and will sooner or later be able to play the role of a power center in the world. So, growing contradictions between us spell future geo-political upheavals.

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