Affirmative section consultation and cooperation through dialogue networks



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IMPACT: A NATIONALIST RUSSIA WILL SPREAD NUCLEAR WEAPONS TO DANGEROUS NATIONS
RUSSIA ACTS TO CONSOLIDATE ITS INFLUENCE, AND WILL ASSIST IN PROLIFERATION OF WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION TO ACHIEVE IT -- IRAN, IRAQ, SYRIA
Mark Gage, Professional Staff Member for East Europe and the New Independent States, Committee on International Relations, U.S. House of Representatives, Heritage Foundation Reports, April 6, 1998; Pg. 30, HEADLINE: THE FUTURE OF UNITED STATES -- RUSSIAN RELATIONS acs-VT99

With regard to fighting the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, here, once again, Russia is playing a role intended to regain its power over its "sphere" rather than to combat this global threat.

First, the cooperation between Russia and Iran is extensive and, as we have all heard reported in the press, now appears to involve the sale of missile components and technology in addition to the advanced conventional weapons and civilian nuclear reactors it has previously encompassed.

Second, Russia remains a friend to Saddam Hussein, the dictator in Iraq. That friendship is exhibited in the negotiations at the United Nations, where Russia seeks to lessen the sanctions on Iraq even as Hussein refuses to meet U.N. requirements for inspections of suspected WMD sites. (With regard to Iraq, has there yet been a satisfactory answer to the questions, raised in a press report a few years ago, that Russian ballistic missile gyroscopes were found to have been smuggled into Iraq?)

Third, it is reported that Russia is seeking to reinvigorate its military sales to Syria -- sales that may include some advanced weaponry, perhaps including chemical warheads.
ONCE RUSSIA CREATES A MULTIPOLAR WORLD BECAUSE OF PROLIFERATION, THEN THEY CAN ACT TO CONSOLIDATE NATIONS NEAR THEM
Mark Gage, Professional Staff Member for East Europe and the New Independent States, Committee on International Relations, U.S. House of Representatives, Heritage Foundation Reports, April 6, 1998; Pg. 30, HEADLINE: THE FUTURE OF UNITED STATES -- RUSSIAN RELATIONS acs-VT99

Such challenges -- creating the "multipolar world" that prevents the United States from exercising global leadership -- will stretch American forces to the limit and, de facto, will make the U.S. less able and willing to assist or support states beyond the regions I have just mentioned. In other words, the U.S. will be less able to assist or support the states neighboring Russia as they seek to consolidate their independence from Russian domination.


RUSSIA FACILITATES THE SPREAD OF WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION TO FORECLOSE USA MILITARY OPTIONS IN THOSE REGIONS
Mark Gage, Professional Staff Member for East Europe and the New Independent States, Committee on International Relations, U.S. House of Representatives, Heritage Foundation Reports, April 6, 1998; Pg. 30, HEADLINE: THE FUTURE OF UNITED STATES -- RUSSIAN RELATIONS acs-VT99

The object of Russian policy seems not so much to prevent the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction as to lay the groundwork for a series of challenges to America's ability to project military force successfully around the world. Whether in the Persian Gulf or the Straits of Taiwan, Russian military technology is creating the groundwork for those challenges today, as we speak.


IMPACT: NATIONALISTS WILL CONTROL RUSSIAN FOREIGN POLICY
RUSSIAN FOREIGN POLICY IS SUSCEPTIBLE TO RAPID NATIONALIST FLUCTUATIONS
Roger Kanet, Prof. Political Science Univ. of Illinois, 1997; THE FOREIGN POLICY OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION, p. 194, acs-VT99

Of course, this shift to a more pragmatically based foreign policy does not necessarily mean that Russian policy is now coherent or stable. It is still vulnerable to nationalist overtures and open to rapid fluctuations based on the different conceptions that various actors involved in the Russian political system have concerning the objectives that Russia should strive for in the future and concerning the means of achieving these objectives.


INTERNAL RUSSIAN AFFAIRS ARE THE BIGGEST THREAT TO RUSSIAN FOREIGN POLICY
Paul Marantz, Prof. Political Science Univ. British Columbia, 1997; THE FOREIGN POLICY OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION, p. 98 , acs-VT99

Nonetheless, there is no denying the fragility of current EastWest relations. The main threat to the continuation of a constructive relationship between Russia and the West arises not in the realm of foreign policy but from the explosive situation within Russia. The economic crisis in Russia has not abated, law and order are breaking down, political infighting is as vicious as ever, new political institutions lack widespread legitimacy, the conspicuous consumption of the newly rich angers people, Yeltsin's health is precarious, there exists a strong feeling of humiliation within the military, and there is a very real danger that the continued deterioration of the population's standard of living will lead to an upsurge of anger against the West for supposedly foisting an alien, unworkable economic programme on Russia.


RUSSIAN FOREIGN POLICY IS A PRODUCT OF RUSSIAN DOMESTIC POLITICS
Roger Kanet, Prof. Political Science Univ. of Illinois, 1997; THE FOREIGN POLICY OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION, p. 200 , acs-VT99

This pressure brings us back to a main point emphasized in the chapters of this volume, the fact that domestic politics matter in foreign policy formulation. The importance of this issue is especially vivid in the case of Russia, where simultaneous political and economic reforms have created an environment in which policies can and have changed swiftly. We have already witnessed how nationalist pressures have forced the Yeltsin regime to modify its policies. Nationalists have been calling for even greater changes and, if ever given a larger role in formulating foreign policy, would certainly have a different set of priorities based on a different conceptual framework and different perceptions of the international environment. Although the outcome of the December 1995 parliamentary elections seemed to provide nationalists and communists with Just such an opportunity to acquire a greater role in policy-making, the re-election of Yeltsin as president in July 1996 promises to limit their influence. Nevertheless, the domestic situation in the Russian Federation remains uncertain, especially with the growing concerns about Yeltsin's health and his ability to complete his term in office.


RUSSIA'S FOREIGN POLICY IS BEING DRIVEN BY THE NATIONALISTS IN THE DUMA
Alexander Shumilin, February 28, 1998 [The Moscow Times. HEADLINE: Pro and Con on Iraq \\ jan]VT99

President Boris Yeltsin's statements about the possibility of a third world war if the United States bombed Iraq shows that the warm relations between Moscow and Washington have cooled considerably. What emerged from the crisis was nothing less than a demonstration of the simple readiness of Moscow to oppose Washington. Russia's foreign policies seemed under the influence of the opposition in the State Duma - or, to be more exact, of the Communist Party and Vladimir Zhirinovsky's Liberal Democratic Party. For neither the Foreign Ministry nor the Kremlin issued any statements that distanced themselves from the hooligan-like behavior of the LDPR leader in Baghdad.


IMPACT: NATIONALISTS WILL ASSIST TERRORISTS IN ATTACKING US SHIPS IN THE PERSIAN GULF
RUSSIAN NATIONALISTS WANT TO BLOW UP USA CARRIERS IN THE PERSIAN GULF
Vladimir Zhirinovskiy, BBC Summary of World Broadcasts, November 18, 1997, HEADLINE: Nationalist leader Zhirinovskiy urges support for anti-American groups in Iraq, SOURCE: Source: Interfax news agency, Moscow, in English 1032 gmt 17 Nov 97 acs-VT99

Russia must support those groups in Iraq that are prepared to strike at the Americans, Liberal Democratic Party of Russia [LDPR] leader told a news conference in the Interfax head office in Moscow today. "The Americans will pull out immediately if one aircraft carrier is blown up in the Gulf. Corpses and coffins destined for the United States will make Clinton' s prestige fall," he said.


RUSSIAN NATIONALISTS BELIEVE RUSSIA SHOULD UNITE WITH IRAQ AND HELP IT WAGE WAR ON THE USA
Vladimir Zhirinovskiy, BBC Summary of World Broadcasts, November 18, 1997, HEADLINE: Nationalist leader Zhirinovskiy urges support for anti-American groups in Iraq, SOURCE: Source: Interfax news agency, Moscow, in English 1032 gmt 17 Nov 97 acs-VT99

"Who prevents us from taking a different position on Iraq?" Zhirinovskiy asked rhetorically. "The Americans could be forced from the Middle East if force is used against them the way they do it to others, not by ourselves but by the local political structures which are prepared to do so," he said. "Striking a blow, but not by Russia" must be the goal of Russian policy in the Gulf, Zhirinovskiy said. " People are there whom Russia could help so that the United States would be less interested in the region," he said.

"Who could stop us if we change our stance and win support in the Arab world? An alliance with the Arab world is inevitable for us because no alliance with the West is possible. But we are continuing to betray [the Arabs]. The Arab world will rally eventually, but without us," Zhirinovskiy said.
IMPACT: NATIONALISTS WILL ATTEMPT TO REINTEGRATE THE FORMER SOVIET STATES THROUGH CONQUEST
THE COMMUNISTS AND NATIONALISTS WILL ATTEMPT MILITARY REINTEGRATION OF THE FORMER SOVIET STATES
Gennady I. Chufrin and Harold H. Saunders; Russian Academy of Sciences and the Kettering Foundation, The Washington Quarterly, 1997 Autumn; Pg. 35, HEADLINE: The Politics of Conflict Prevention in Russia and the Near Abroad acs-VT99

Finally, a wide range of public groups, movements, and political parties, ranging from Communists to nationalists, strongly supports early and comprehensive reintegration. The Communist Party probably takes the most radical stand on this issue. The Communists and their allies became the largest single bloc in the new parliament elected in December 1995. They passed a resolution renouncing the December 1991 agreement to dissolve the Soviet Union. Communists have voiced the intent to approach the governments, parliaments, and peoples of all former Soviet republics with a proposal for a voluntary restoration of a single state. They justify their stand not only by results of public opinion polls on this issue held periodically in Russia but also by the results of similar polls conducted in other former Soviet republics, like one in Belarus in December 1995.


RUSSIAN GOVERNMENT BELIEVES IT HAS THE TREATY OBLIGATION TO MILITARILY INTERVENE IN FORMER SOVIET STATES IF IT IS NEEDED
Richard Pipes; Professor of History, Emeritus, at Harvard University, Foreign Affairs, September, 1997 /October, 1997; Pg. 65, HEADLINE: Is Russia Still an Enemy? acs-VT99

Moscow interprets the terms of the mutual security treaty as giving it license to intervene militarily in any CIS country where, in its judgment, the commonwealth's security is threatened. Russian troops guarding the border between Tajikistan and Afghanistan have engaged in desultory clashes with Muslim fundamentalist forces. A Russian general stationed in Central Asia declared recently that if hard-line Islamist Taliban units from Afghanistan menaced Tajikistan, his troops would intervene. Thus a modified Brezhnev Doctrine is still in force: Moscow regards any country that was once part of the Soviet Union as falling within the sphere of its security interests. Decolonization has been quite halfhearted.


RUSSIA HAS ALREADY USED MILITARY FORCE TO BRING GEORGIA BACK INTO THE RUSSIA ORBIT OF CONTROL
Richard Pipes; Professor of History, Emeritus, at Harvard University, Foreign Affairs, September, 1997 /October, 1997; Pg. 65, HEADLINE: Is Russia Still an Enemy? acs-VT99

Georgia is a classic case of Moscow's use of military power for imperial objectives. Moscow overcame Georgia's reluctance to join the CIS by inciting a 1992 rebellion of the Abkhaz minority inhabiting the northwestern region of the country. With Russian political and military backing, the Abkhazians expelled 200,000 ethnic Georgians and declared independence. Unable to quell the rebellion, Tbilisi was forced to request aid from Moscow, which consented to provide it so long as Georgia joined the CIS and acquiesced to 15,000 Russian troops on its territory, along with a Russian "peacekeeping" force in Abkhazia. As soon as Tbilisi met these conditions, the Abkhaz rebellion abated. President Eduard Shevardnadze's efforts to rid his country of the putative Russian peacekeepers have so far proved unavailing. Russian forces guard Georgia's land and sea borders with Turkey; since other troops are stationed on Armenia's western border, Russia has direct access to Turkey along the old Soviet frontier.


BROAD COALITION IS PREPARING FOR A HUGE WAR TO RECLAIM THE EMPIRE
Alexander Yanov, Moscow News, August 21, 1997, HEADLINE: Boris Yeltsin: Victor or Vanquished acs-VT99

The people at the General Staff's Academy, and even more so those in the People's Patriotic Alliance, aren't just anyone. The latter hold a majority of seats in the State Duma. And what they are planning, as we can see, is not a "small war," like the Chechen campaign, but a big one - to get back the Ukraine, the Baltics and Kazakhstan, Georgia and Azerbaidjan. This can not happen without great bloodshed.


THE RUSSIAN PSYCHE DEMANDS THAT IT HAVE AN EMPIRE, AND PLANS ARE DEVELOPING TO RECAPTURE IT
Alexander Yanov, Moscow News, August 21, 1997, HEADLINE: Boris Yeltsin: Victor or Vanquished acs-VT99

Why is this happening, or will possibly happen? Because we all grew up in conditions where Russia was a superpower, playing one of the first fiddles in world politics. It is understandable that many people have been psychologically traumatized by its sudden fall down to the level of a "normal" great power, and that, in the words of political scientist Kirill Kholodkovsky, has given birth to a powerful "nostalgia for those days when our country was if not respected, then at least feared." I am not mentioning the fact that for 15 generations, Russia was an empire. For the imperial ideologists, the abyss between yesterday's super-power status and today's normality is absolutely unbridgeable. It is not surprising that the central chapter of Alexander Dugin's sumptuously produced volume " Russia's Geo-Political Future" (which, incidentally, was approved by the Strategy sub-faculty of the General Army Staff's Academy) is called just that - " Russia is Unthinkable Without an Empire." Nor is it surprising that the People's Patriotic Alliance of Russia (whose core is formed by the Communist Party) has proclaimed as its official goal, in the words of its chief ideologue Alexey Podberezkin, "to create conditions favorable to restore within a short historical period the great Russian State, including its territorial aspect." So as to eliminate doubt as to which state is meant, he adds that his Union is intending to restore it "in the framework of those borders which existed until 1991."


RUSSIA STILL HAS DANGEROUS GOALS TO DOMINATE ITS FORMER SOVIET STATES AND EASTERN EUROPE
Stephen Blank, Professor of Research at the Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College, Heritage Foundation Reports, April 6, 1998 Pg. 9, HEADLINE: REFLECTIONS ON RUSSIA AND NATO ENLARGEMENT acs-VT99

Tragically, Russia still pursues objectives and policies in Europe that its power does not merit, that are unsustainable, and which ultimately endanger its own security.

Russia seeks equality with the United States at the expenses of all other states, an exclusive unchallenged sphere in the CIS, and the demilitarization of Central and Eastern Europe so that the great powers alone could later revise their status. It aspires to revise regional borders and still seeks to assign the Central and East European states, not to mention the CIS, a diminished sovereignty and legitimacy.
RUSSIA HAS STATED THAT FORMER SOVIET STATES ARE INDEPENDENT, BUT IT DOESN’T BELIEVE IT OR WANT IT TO STAY THAT WAY
Richard Pipes; Professor of History, Emeritus, at Harvard University, Foreign Affairs, September, 1997 /October, 1997; Pg. 65, HEADLINE: Is Russia Still an Enemy? acs-VT99

MOSCOW ACKNOWLEDGED the sovereign status of the former Soviet republics, but it is a recognition that comes from the head, not the heart. The patrimonial mentality embedded in the Russian psyche, which holds that everything inherited from one's forefathers is inalienable property, works against accepting the separation of the borderlands as a fait accompli. It prompts Moscow to strive for their gradual economic, political, and military "reintegration" with Russia -- which, given the disparity in their respective size and population, can only mean reducing the former republics once again to the status of clients. In this endeavor the government is abetted by the Orthodox Church, which claims authority over all Orthodox Christians of what was once the Soviet Union.


IMPACT: ATTEMPTS TO REINTEGRATE MEANS WAR WITH THE WEST
ALLOWING RUSSIA TO DOMINATE ITS EURASIAN “SPHERE OF INFLUENCE” WILL LEAD TO ATTEMPTS TO REINTEGRATE FORMER NATIONS, RESULTING IN WAR AND RUINATION
Stephen Blank, Professor of Research at the Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College, Heritage Foundation Reports, April 6, 1998 Pg. 9, HEADLINE: REFLECTIONS ON RUSSIA AND NATO ENLARGEMENT acs-VT99

Russia's demands for a privileged sphere of influence in its own "backyard" is unacceptable. This sphere cannot be maintained except through war and Russia's own ruination, because the CIS members will not accept what is clearly an unenforceable and illegitimate hegemony. Thus, Europe has no option but to unite against Russia's exorbitant claims. Hence, Russian moves to integrate the CIS in economics, politics, culture, and defense from above invariably weaken Eurasian security and reinforce anti-democratic tendencies and the structural militarization of Russian policies and institutions. An imperial restoration is the single greatest threat to peace in Europe and Russia because Russia cannot afford that temptation, though it still chases after it.


RUSSIAN ATTEMPTS TO REINTEGRATE FORMER SOVIET STATES WILL LEAD TO CONFLICT WITH THE WEST
Richard Pipes; Professor of History, Emeritus, at Harvard University, Foreign Affairs, September, 1997 /October, 1997; Pg. 65, HEADLINE: Is Russia Still an Enemy? acs-VT99

Moscow's encroachments on the sovereignty of its onetime dependencies present a serious potential threat to East-West relations. The situation is not entirely clear-cut, since the West tacitly recognizes all lands that were once part of the Soviet Union as Russia's legitimate sphere of influence while insisting that Russia respect the sovereignty of the separated republics. If the past is any guide, in the event of an overt conflict between Russia and another of the former republics, the European allies are unlikely to go beyond expressions of regret. The United States, however, is almost certain to react more harshly, especially if the victim of Russian intimidation is Ukraine or one of the countries adjoining the Caspian Sea -- the former because of its geopolitical importance, the latter because of those oil-rich states' potential contribution to the world economy.


IMPACT: WAR ABROAD WILL ALSO MEAN CIVIL WAR AT HOME
SEARCH FOR ENEMIES IN RUSSIA BEGINS ABROAD BUT ENDS UP AT HOME
NIKOLAI BIRYUKOV & VICTOR SERGEYEV, Moscow State Institute of International Relations, 1997; RUSSIAN POLITICS IN TRANSITION: Institutional conflict in a nascent democracy, p.21 , acs-VT99

Once formed, a political culture of this sort develops its own mechanism of self-perpetuation. The core of this mechanism is the relentless "search for Enemy". The process is self-contradictory. On the one hand, the Enemy must be uncovered and, destroyed, because he is the Enemy; on the other hand, the Enemy must persist, because in his absence this type of political culture becomes meaningless and cannot function. It is obvious that whatever political force occupies "the niche" at the moment, it cannot be treated in a purely empirical manner, but must be "reconsidered" from the standpoint of ontological dualism. "The Enemy" is mystified out of all proportions and stripped of practically all meaningful sociological characteristics: it may now be called "The World Imperialism", or "The Judeo-Masonry", or "The Islamic Threat", or "The Empire of Evil".

Under these circumstances any "outside" candidate for the role of the Enemy quickly fades into a mere symbol and becomes almost anonymous. On the contrary, "internal" enemies (symbolic by definition, for the body politic is still considered a mystic unity) concretise and multiply. Dualistic mentality generates the abhorrent reality of mass terror:
NATIONALISM’S RISE IN RUSSIA CAN MEAN ONLY WAR WITH NEIGHBORS OR CIVIL WAR
Holger Jensen, international editor of the Rocky Mountain News, The Fresno Bee, September 29, 1997, Pg. B7, HEADLINE: U.S still searching for Russian doctrine in post-Cold War era acs-VT99

As Sergei Rogov, head of the USA-Canada Institute, pointed out at a seminar conducted by the Foreign Policy Research Institute: "While Communism suppressed ethnicity, post-Communism raised it to the surface." Hence, "nationalism would be disastrous for Russia, leading either to conflict with neighbors or civil war." The solution, he said, is for Russia to develop a "supra-national identity above and beyond ethnicity."


REFORMS FEED THE MAFIA
THESIS: Reforms and attempts to create a new system in Russia create “gray zones” during the transition into which Russian criminal organizations, the Russian Mafia, inserts themselves. This allows them to control that new part of society. Every new reform helps the Russian mafia to take over that society and turn it into a corporatist criminal state.
A. RUSSIA STANDS AT A CROSSDROADS: CRIMINAL CORPORATE OLIGARCHY OR WESTERN STYLE DEMOCRACY
Grigory Yavlinsky; Russian economist and the leader of Yabloko, a democratic, reformist political party, Foreign Affairs, May, 1998 / June, 1998; Pg. 67, HEADLINE: Russia's Phony Capitalism acs-VT99

RUSSIA FACES a watershed decision. The vital question for Russia is whether it will become a quasi-democratic oligarchy with corporatist, criminal characteristics or take the more difficult, painful road to becoming a normal, Western-style democracy with a market economy. Communism is no longer an option. That was settled in the 1996 presidential election.


B. REFORMING RUSSIA TOO QUICKLY WILL ONLY ACCELERATE THE RISE OF MAFIAS
Victor Sergeyev, Moscow State Institute for International Relations, 1998; THE WILD EAST: Crime and lawlessness in post-communist Russia, p. 53-4 , acs-VT99

Of course, such developments disgust "civilized society." However, the only way to curb them (if it proves impossible to evade them entirely) is to reduce "gray zones" as soon as possible and to minimize the distance between the law and social practice. And since social practice is a rather conservative phenomenon, usually more conservative than legislation, a transition society must be very cautious in adopting new legislation. Radical and reformist laws, which contradict the 'established and deeply rooted political culture, may stimulate ' the growth of "gray zones" and the emergence of "mafias."


C. IMPACTS
1. A CRIMINAL CORPORATE STATE WOULD TURN WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION INTO BLACK MARKET PRODUCTS FOR THE HIGHEST BIDDER
Grigory Yavlinsky; Russian economist and the leader of Yabloko, a democratic, reformist political party, Foreign Affairs, May, 1998 / June, 1998; Pg. 67, HEADLINE: Russia's Phony Capitalism acs-VT99

IN OCTOBER 1996, Vladimir Nechai, the director of a nuclear complex near the Ural city of Chelyabinsk, killed himself because he lacked the money to pay his employees and could no longer ensure the safety of his plant's operations. His suicide underscored the most serious threat to all players in the post-Cold War world: loss of control of the Soviet arsenal of nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons. The increasing risks of chaos in a nuclear power are also evident in the rumors of nuclear smuggling. Russia has thousands of tons of nuclear, chemical, and biological material. Under the rule of a corrupt oligarchy, uranium and anthrax could become black market commodities available to the highest bidder. The control of Russia's weapons of mass destruction is an issue of world safety that cannot be ignored by Russia or the West.

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