Affirmative section consultation and cooperation through dialogue networks



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Jennifer Anderson, Intl. Institute for Strategic Studies, December, 1997; THE LIMITS OF SINO-RUSSIAN STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP, Adelphi Paper 315; p. 48 , acs-VT99

It has been argued that, with considerable economic gains at stake, China will increase its involvement in the region at Russia's expense, either strategically or economically. Central Asia and Mongolia will thus become the arena in which Sino-Russian strategic tensions are most likely to be played out. One Russian analyst has warned that China is 'moving toward a leading position in the struggle for influence in the post-Soviet era'.


DECAYING STATE OF RUSSIAN SIBERIA MAKES IT RIPE FOR CHINESE ADVENTURISM -- IT HAS ALL THE RESOURCES THEY NEED!
Valery V. Tsepkalo; Belarus' Ambassador to the United States, Foreign Affairs, March, 1998 /April, 1998; Pg. 107, HEADLINE: The Remaking of Eurasia acs-VT99

Economics and demographics may well determine developments in the region. Russia's Far East and Siberia are dying. Only 24 million people live in the two regions, which comprise 60 percent of the territory of the Russian Federation, and the population is falling. The region's huge enterprises, symbols of bygone industrial power, are no longer competitive, and it is too late for them to modernize. Poor transportation and communications and high energy prices and railroad tariffs help make for a considerably worse economic situation than elsewhere in Russia. Across the border in rapidly developing China, demographic pressures and the strain on resources are astounding and will only increase. China's current population is 1.26 billion, and the annual number of births is triple that of Europe and Russia combined. In recent years, China, 80 percent of whose power comes from coal, has developed a serious energy shortage. Coincidentally, 80 percent of the world's known coal deposits are in Russia's Siberia and Far East. Siberia also has enormous manganese and iron ore deposits and vast forests. All these resources are virtually useless to Russia at present because people are needed to exploit them and people are in short supply in Siberia. But in China they are not.


IF RUSSIA WEAKENS, CHINA WILL BECOME DOMINANT IN EURASIA
Valery V. Tsepkalo; Belarus' Ambassador to the United States, Foreign Affairs, March, 1998 /April, 1998; Pg. 107, HEADLINE: The Remaking of Eurasia acs-VT99

Traditional Western analyses of the Soviet Union assumed Chinese economic weakness and the West's maintenance of its competitive edge, in spite of China's demographic advantage. But with the collapse of the Soviet Union and the state of the Russian economy, little prevents China from gaining economic and political dominance in Eurasia, including the Far East.


RUSSIA AND JAPAN HAVE EXCELLENT AND PEACEFUL RELATIONS
JAPAN AND RUSSIA RELATIONS ARE BETTER THAN AT ANY TIME SINCE 1905
Angela Stent, professor of government at Georgetown University, Heritage Foundation Reports, April 6, 1998; Pg. 23, HEADLINE: RUSSIAN FOREIGN POLICY: THE NEW PRAGMATISM acs-VT99

Russian -- Japanese relations are also better now than they have been since Japan defeated Russia in 1905. The bilateral ties have been improving quietly but quite dramatically, given Japan's repeated refusal to form a partnership with Russia until the question of the Kurile Islands is resolved in Japan's favor.


JAPAN SEEKS STRONG RELATIONS WITH RUSSIA TO AVOID FUTURE ASIAN CONFLICTS
Vassily Golovnin, TASS, April 15, 1998, HEADLINE: Peace treaty no longer hinges on territorial issue , acs-VT99

Professor Kenichi Ito, president of the Japanese international forum, a leading foreign policy expert of the Japanese government.

Ito said Tokyo now proceeds in its relations with Russia from the need to build new stable international order in North East Asia in the post-Cold War period. Japan now declares, specifically, in favour of establishing special partnership among the four leading powers of the region -- China, Russia, United States and Japan. Full normalisation of relations between Moscow and Tokyo has become the most important factor in this process, and the two countries now stand the best of chances to improve relations, Ito said.

Japan is ready to give friendly economic assistance to Russia.


JAPAN WANTS TO COOPERATE WITH RUSSIA AND HELP RUSSIA DEVELOP PEACEFULLY
Chikahito Harada, Intl. Institute for Strategic Studies, July, 1997; RUSSIA AND NORTH-EAST ASIA, Adelphi Paper 310, p. 51 , acs-VT99

The success of Russia's attempts to democratise, create a market economy and practise diplomacy based on law and justice has become of vital interest to Japan. Japan's desire to play a greater role in the international arena requires it to cooperate more closely with Russia. Furthermore, the political and economic significance to the region of the autonomous Russian Far East has increased.


RUSSIA-JAPAN COOPERATION IS ALREADY HIGHLY DEVELOPED AND SUCCESSFUL
Chikahito Harada, Intl. Institute for Strategic Studies, July, 1997; RUSSIA AND NORTH-EAST ASIA, Adelphi Paper 310, p. 57 , acs-VT99

Since the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the Russo-Japanese security dialogue has steadily developed. It now includes bilateral policy-planning talks; exchanges of defence scholars; annual consultations on preventing incidents at sea beyond the territorial waters and the air-space above them; and the Japanese, Russian and US Trilateral Forum on North Pacific Security. As mentioned above, Russia and Japan have also begun to cooperate on eliminating nuclear weapons and nuclear waste.


RUSSIA AND JAPAN SECURITY COOPERATION WILL CONTINUE
Chikahito Harada, Intl. Institute for Strategic Studies, July, 1997; RUSSIA AND NORTH-EAST ASIA, Adelphi Paper 310, p. 59, acs-VT99

As a result of the changed strategic structure of North-east Asia, both countries have a common interest in developing their security ties. Needless to say, there are also limitations here. Russia cannot, for example, expect to engage in arms sales or military cooperation that might damage the Japanese-US security alliance. Russo-Japanese security relations will thus remain primarily in the areas of security dialogue, exchanges and confidence-building measures. Since Russia appears to accept the need to tone down its ambitions in this area, its stated security-policy objectives and their implementation are likely to remain compatible, at least in the short term.


RUSSIA AND JAPAN WILL PEACEFULLY SETTLE THEIR TERRITORIAL DISPUTE IN THE KURILE ISLANDS
THERE WILL BE A RUSSIA-JAPAN TERRITORIAL SETTLEMENT BY 2000
Suvendrini Kakuchi, Inter Press Service, April 20, 1998, HEADLINE: JAPAN- RUSSIA: MANY SMILES, LITTLE PROGRESS ON ISLANDS ROW , acs-VT99

The tiny islands, known as the southern Kuriles by Russia and the Northern Territories by Japan, were occupied by Soviet troops at the end of the Pacific War. Since then, the dispute has blocked the signing of a peace treaty between Japan and Russia, though diplomatic ties were restored in 1956.

Japan refuses to sign a peace accord till the islands are returned, while Moscow wants joint economic cooperation on the islands as a first step toward a peace treaty. Nevertheless, the official goal for signing the treaty is the year 2000.
RUSSIAN NEGOTIATIONS WITH JAPAN OVER TERRITORIES HAS RESULTED IN ECONOMIC BENEFIT FOR RUSSIA
Suvendrini Kakuchi, Inter Press Service, April 20, 1998, HEADLINE: JAPAN- RUSSIA: MANY SMILES, LITTLE PROGRESS ON ISLANDS ROW , acs-VT99

Instead of concrete progress on the disputed islands, what emerged from the summit was an agreement to expand economic cooperation despite the territorial dispute.

This is seen in many quarters as a sign that Yeltsin got many of the things he aimed for from the Japanese side, without making significant concessions to resolve the islands dispute.
JAPAN IS FRUSSTRATED WITH RUSSIA BECAUSE YELTSIN HAS OUT-NEGOTIATED THEM ON TERRITORIAL ISSUES
Suvendrini Kakuchi, Inter Press Service, April 20, 1998, HEADLINE: JAPAN- RUSSIA: MANY SMILES, LITTLE PROGRESS ON ISLANDS ROW , acs-VT99

While officials here see the need to push sagging bilateral ties forward into the 21st century, they do not seem to know quite how to deal with chaotic Russian politics or with a skillful politician like Yeltsin who now seems, once again, to have managed to delay Japan's efforts to get the islands back.


JAPAN IS NOT CONCERNED ABOUT THE TERRITORIAL ISSUE TOO MUCH, AND IS PROCEEDING WITH CLOSER TIES WITH RUSSIA ANYWAY
Suvendrini Kakuchi, Inter Press Service, April 20, 1998, HEADLINE: JAPAN- RUSSIA: MANY SMILES, LITTLE PROGRESS ON ISLANDS ROW , acs-VT99

It is clear that Hashimoto is having to expand ties with Russia anyway, despite the territorial dispute, because Russia is an important player in global affairs, analysts add.

While Tokyo's foreign policy is heavily dependent on its ties with the United States, officials have become acutely aware of the need to nurture ties with its neighbor to the northeast.

There are several clues showing Hashimoto to be putting the territorial issue on the back burner, including his statement yesterday that Tokyo would dispatch experts from the ministries of foreign affairs, finance and international trade and industry in early May to discuss investment in Russia.

Despite the territorial row, a foreign ministry official argued: "The bilateral relationship is in best shape in 50 years."
RUSSIA AND JAPAN HAVE ARRIVED AN EFFECTIVE COMPROMISE OVER THEIR TERRITORIAL DISPUTE
F. J. Khergamvala, THE HINDU, April 22, 1998, HEADLINE: Disputed islands Russia asked to concede but not cede, acs-VT99

There is for the first time the appearance of the contours of how Russia and Japan might eventually resolve their dispute over territory.

Money and land will be the two commodities that will be bartered, leaving open only the question of the price and time frame.

For the past two days, Japanese dailies have been giving somewhat conflicting versions of the specifics of what the Prime Minister, Mr. Ryutaro Hashimoto, proposed to his guest, Mr. Boris Yeltsin, during their weekend retreat summit in a Japanese rural setting. During the press conference that followed the summit, Mr. Hashimoto said he had made a proposal to Mr. Yeltsin but neither he nor his officials privy to the details agreed to elaborate. Mr. Yeltsin too conceded a serious proposal was on the table which he said he would study carefully and voiced optimism about its outcome.


RUSSIA AND JAPAN HAVE DRAWN ON LEGAL AND HISTORICAL PRECEDENTS TO SETTLE THEIR TERRITORIAL DISPUTE
F. J. Khergamvala, THE HINDU, April 22, 1998, HEADLINE: Disputed islands Russia asked to concede but not cede, acs-VT99

The demarcation proposed is to the north of the four islands, thus confirming what a Japanese spokesman said. That Russia and Japan agreed to a solution based on the 1993 Tokyo Declaration that clearly identifies the four islands by name.

The reference is to the islands called Kunashiri, Etorofu, Shkotan and the Habomai group of islets. The Russians call it the southern Kuriles and Japan calls them the Northern Territories. The islands have been a legal football in most previous Russian and Soviet agreements with Japan and though the two have agreed to settle their problems in line with historical records, law and justice, Mr. Hashimoto and Mr. Yeltsin seem to recognise that present day strategic economic imperatives count equally heavily. Elements of the following, tailored to the present situation will influence the settlement: The Soviet-German agreement of 1990, the Sino- Russia agreement of 1997; the British-Argentine approach on the Falklands-Malvinas; Mr. Yeltsin's decade long views on the Russia -Japan relationship; a Sino-Portuguese agreement on Macao; Japan's need for huge amounts of oil and gas plus Russia's need for huge amounts of money.
RUSSIA WILL USE THE TERRITORIAL SETTLEMENT WITH JAPAN TO BOLSTER ITS ECONOMY
F. J. Khergamvala, THE HINDU, April 22, 1998, HEADLINE: Disputed islands Russia asked to concede but not cede, acs-VT99

On some details there are striking parallels with the 20-year 1990 Soviet-German Treaty on Good Neighbourliness, Partnership and Cooperation.' Japan is providing a use as you please' $ $ 1.5 billions credit to Russia and a Japanese spokesman clarified that Mr. Yeltsin had said in February he might use it for housing for defence personnel. In 1990, a untied German loan of a larger amount was used for the same purpose. To stretch another parallel, just as Germany's Mercedes-Benz announced a deal to produce buses in the then Soviet Union just a few days before the treaty, so too Toyota has announced its plant in Russia after the recent summit talks in Japan.

Just as Japan desires to quench its energy thirst with Russian gas and oil so too did Germany then sign a parallel oil and gas agreement from the Soviet Union together with the signing of the treaty. Oil, gas and petroleum products made up 60 per cent of Soviet sales to West Germany in 1989 and East Germany got 100 per cent of its needs from Moscow. These pointers suggest that the entire Russian-Japanese treaty will rest on the Russian economic demands and the main component will be Japanese funded energy projects and infrastructure.
FRANCE-GERMANY-RUSSIA ALLIANCE IS NOTHING TO WORRY ABOUT
FRANCE-GERMANY-RUSSIA TROIKA IS NOT AIMED AT THE USA
Steven Erlanger; New York Times Service, International Herald Tribune, April 13, 1998, Pg. 1, HEADLINE: New 'Troika' In Europe Throws Off Washington , acs-VT99

Mr. Kohl went out of his way to stress that this ''big troika'' was not aimed at the United States - much the same message that the Americans so often try to send the Russians about NATO expansion. ''This meeting is, naturally, not directed at anyone else,'' he said, and he made sure the agenda stuck to Continental, rather than trans-Atlantic, issues.


FRANCE-GERMANY-RUSSIA SUMMITRY DOES NOTHING TO HELP YELTSIN
Steven Erlanger; New York Times Service, International Herald Tribune, April 13, 1998, Pg. 1, HEADLINE: New 'Troika' In Europe Throws Off Washington , acs-VT99

As it happened, the troika summit itself had little substance, and it was much overshadowed by Mr. Yeltsin's impulsive decision, a couple of days before, to fire his prime minister and the entire cabinet. Having just returned to work after another illness, Mr. Yeltsin behaved bizarrely, calling for a post-summit press conference before the summit meeting itself began.


FRANCE-RUSSIA RELATIONSHIP TRADES OFF WITH USA-RUSSIA RELATIONSHIP
Steven Erlanger; New York Times Service, International Herald Tribune, April 13, 1998, Pg. 1, HEADLINE: New 'Troika' In Europe Throws Off Washington , acs-VT99

The United States regards the new Russia as something of a pet project, if not exactly a client. Helping Russia to feel part of a wider Europe, as the North Atlantic Treaty Organization enlarges, is fine as far as it goes. But the Americans want to be sure that any special French-German understandings with Russia will not undercut an already fraying U.S.- Russia relationship.

NEGATIVE SOLVENCY SECTION
Nothing works in Russia. Wqhatever the affirmative tries, check out evidence against it here.
USA CANNOT CHANGE THINGS IN RUSSIA

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WESTERN IDEAS DO NOT WORK IN RUSSIA

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EXISTING RUSSIAN GOVERNMENT CANNOT BE COUNTED ON

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SENDING MONEY TO RUSSIA WILL NOT WORK

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CAPITALISM WILL NOT WORK IN RUSSIA

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FOREIGN AID WILL NOT WORK IN RUSSIA

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DEMOCRACY PROMOTION FAILS

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ORGANIZED CRIME STOPS ANY ATTEMPT TO CHANGE THINGS

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FOREIGN POLICY CANNOT BE CHANGED

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ARMS & TECHNOLOGY TRANSFERS CANNOT BE CONTROLLED

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ARMS CONTROL AGREEMENTS FAIL

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DE-ALERTING FAILS

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SOLVENCY: THE USA CAN’T REALLY INFLUENCE EVENTS IN RUSSIA


USA HAS ONLY MODEST INFLUENCE ON EVENTS IN RUSSIA
Abram Chayes, Prof. Law Harvard, 1997; MANAGING CONFLICT IN THE FORMER SOVIET UNION: Russian and American Perspectives, p. 532 , acs-VT99

What can probably be said with some confidence is that, with the exception of its almost obsessive commitment to the shock therapy prescription (now widely recognized as a mistake), the United States has had only modest influence on developments in Russia. Its impact has been even smaller on the evolution of ethno-national relations within the successor states of the Soviet Union and within Russia itself. This was the inevitable consequence of the limited character of U.S. commitments and contacts.


USA PREFERENCES DO NOT CARRY MUCH WEIGHT IN THE WORLD ANY MORE
Tad Szulc, Los Angeles Times, May 24, 1998, Part M; Page 1; HEADLINE: FOREIGN POLICY; THE YEAR OF LIVING DANGEROUSLY acs-VT99

U.S. views and desires, no matter how well-founded, do not carry special weight anymore, a reality that Washington finds hard to grasp. Military clout alone is insufficient. President Bill Clinton may be ill-served by his top advisors, or he might not listen to them, but the time has come for him to fix his foreign policy.


ONLY RUSSIA CAN MAKES IT CHOICES, NOT THE USA FOR IT
Stephen Sestanovich; Ambassador at, U.S. Department of State, Heritage Foundation , April 6, 1998; Pg. 1, HEADLINE: THE STATE OF RUSSIAN FOREIGN POLICY AND U.S. POLICY TOWARD RUSSIA; OPENING STATEMENT acs-VT99

The United States cannot make Russia's choices for it. Only the Russian people can make choices that will last. But we need to understand what the choices are. As President Bill Clinton has said, Russia has "a chance to show that a great power can promote patriotism without expansionism; that a great power can promote national pride without national prejudice."


THE USA CANNOT DICTATE WHAT HAPPENS IN RUSSIA AND CANNOT BUY CHANGE
Michael J. Mazarr, director of the New Millennium Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, The Washington Quarterly, 1998 Spring; Pg. 11, HEADLINE: Clinton Foreign Policy, R.I.P. , acs-VT99

It goes without saying that Washington cannot dictate what goes on in Russia, that Russia is too big to be "rescued" with some gigantic infusion of cash.


US FOREIGN POLICY GOALS WITH RUSSIA CAN ONLY BE ACHIEVED THROUGH COOPERATION WITH OTHER STATES
Abram Chayes, Prof. Law Harvard, 1997; MANAGING CONFLICT IN THE FORMER SOVIET UNION: Russian and American Perspectives, p. 534 , acs-VT99

U.S. policy has begun to take account of the interdependence, both in economic and security terms. Perhaps its most serious defect has been the hubris of behaving as if U.S. goals could be achieved by unilateral efforts without a far greater concerted effort through the Western alliance and the array of international organizations operating in the area. Given the U.S. domestic political climate, the agenda of the Clinton administration was ambitious. But accomplishing the objectives it identified will require more than a unilateral effort. The territory, both literally and figuratively, is simply too broad and the available resources-money, expertise, and time are too limited.


SOCIAL REFORMS BASED IN WESTERN THOUGHT FAIL IN RUSSIA
WESTERN SOCIAL CONCEPTIONS DO NOT FIT RUSSIAN SOCIAL REALITIES
Gennady Zyuganov, chairman Communist Party of Russia, member of parliament, 1997; MY RUSSIA: a political autobiography, p. 74 acs-VT99

Modem Western civilization is based on an atomist-mechanical picture of the world. The traditional bonds uniting people in a patriarchal society were cast off under the slogan: "Each person is a free atom of humankind!" A marketplace individualism became the basis of man's worldview and his economic and political ("one person -- one vote") assumptions. Hence the absolutization of individual rights, which in the national sphere justified melting smaller nationalities into larger nations and in the social sphere stood for competition - a "war of all against all."

In Russia, such a complete atomization has not taken place, even over the past seventy-five years. The individual continues to feel part of a collective structure of one type or another - a labor collective, a collective farm, or a brigade. (Alexander Yakovlev thus writes angrily: "We need willpower and wisdom gradually to destroy the Bolshevik community -- the collective farm... Here there can be no compromise ... decollectivization must be conducted lawfully but forcefully.") The most important spiritual category for Eurasians is the people [the nation], which is rejected by our Westernizers. The perception of the people as a single organism, a sort of social microcosm, was formulated by the Eurasian L. Karsavin as follows: "One can speak about a body of people.... My biological organism is a concrete process, my concrete interaction with other organisms and with nature.... A nation living in a given territory is the same kind of organism (only it is supra individual). It has its own body.
YELTSIN'S REFORMS HAVE FAILED BECAUSE WESTERN SOLUTIONS ARE NOT RIGHT FOR RUSSIA
Gennady Zyuganov, chairman Communist Party of Russia, member of parliament, 1997; MY RUSSIA: a political autobiography, p. 19 acs-VT99

Boris Yeltsin's regime has thoughtlessly tried to bring the "blessings" of neoliberalism to Russia, whose economy and character are quite different from those in the West. The results have been disastrous: The gross domestic product and living standards have fallen drastically. Mr. Yeltsin's promises to increase social spending and improve living conditions are merely an electoral maneuver.


REFORMS MUST FIT IN WITH THE CHARACTER AND HISTORY OF RUSSIA IN ORDER TO WORK
Gennady Zyuganov, chairman Communist Party of Russia, member of parliament, 1997; MY RUSSIA: a political autobiography, p. xiii , acs-VT99

The main reason for our disagreement is our belief that this course of reforms either underplays or completely ignores Russia's national specific features, depending instead on Western models. We support reforms, but we believe that to succeed they must be based on Russia's own historical experience and traditions.


CURRENT VAIN EFFORTS AT REFORM WILL BE REPLACED BY A SYSTEM MORE IN HARMONY WITH RUSSIA'S PEOPLE AND HISTORY
Gennady Zyuganov, chairman Communist Party of Russia, member of parliament, 1997; MY RUSSIA: a political autobiography, p. 119 , acs-VT99

On our country, especially in its complex political and economic situation, it is not easy to predict the near future. However, both the logic of unfolding events and the objective tendencies of selfpreservation make it possible to say that "democracy" in its present form will inevitably be replaced with a socioeconomic and political system that is more in harmony with the national spirit of the people.

WORKING WITH THE EXISTING RUSSIAN GOVERNMENT CANNOT SUCCEED
THE RUSSIAN GOVERNMENT DOES NOT AND CAN NOT CONTROL THE COUNTRY
Steve Rodan, The Jerusalem Post, May 20, 1998, Pg. 2, HEADLINE: Israel, US dispute effectiveness of Congress sanctions on Russia // acs-VT99

"The Russian government doesn't control the country," said Max Singer, a leading American strategist and US Defense Department consultant who is also a researcher for Bar Ilan University's Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies. "If I wanted something I wouldn't go to Yeltsin or the Foreign Ministry. The world is making a big mistake taking Russia seriously."


RUSSIA CAN SUCCEED BUT ONLY IF THE WEST STOPS SUPPORTING THE CURRENT REGIME
Mikhail Gorbachev, former leader of the Soviet Union, Star Tribune (Minneapolis, MN), December 14, 1997, Pg. 41A, HEADLINE: For the change Russia needs, Yeltsin regime must leave power acs-VT99

In spite of everything, I believe in Russia's future. The future depends, first and foremost, on Russia itself. But the West will also have to figure out whom it supports in Russia.

Isn't the West working to back those who are no longer capable of conducting reform and, along with them, those who entirely reject reform within the framework of democracy?

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