Affirmative section consultation and cooperation through dialogue networks



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Therefore, the aim of the signatories to the Sino-Russian Moscow Declaration was not to create another bloc or alliance but to express their negative attitude towards continuation of the "Cold War approach" in the political quarters of some Western countries.
NO MATTER HOW MUCH CHIAN AND RUSSIA IMPROVE THEIR RELATIONS, RELATIONS WITH THE USA WILL BE MORE IMPORTANT TO BOTH OF THEM
Leon Aron, resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, The Weekly Standard, April 20, 1998: Pg. 23, HEADLINE: THE REMARKABLE RISE OF DEMOCRATIC RUSSIA , acs-VT99

To be sure, there will be periods of Sino-Russian rapprochement. Today, Russia sells China submarines and MIGs, and Chinese migrant workers and entrepreneurs flood the Far East and Siberia, setting up Chinese-language schools for their children and opening the best restaurants in Ekaterinburg, Irkutsk, and Vladivostok. Russia will try to play the Chinese card in its dealings with Washington, just as China will try to play the Russian card -- but the United States will remain far more important to both than they will be to each other. Just as certainly, rapprochement will alternate with periods of Sino-Russian tension and perhaps outright hostility.


CHINA AND RUSSIA WILL NEVER BE TOO TIGHT AS ALLIES
Natasha Fairweather, The Moscow Times, October 11, 1997, HEADLINE: Examination of Russia's Turn to the East acs-VT99

Harada believes that although China and Russia's interests may coincide in the short term, this cannot endure. Fear of China remains deep-rooted in the Russian psyche. And as the Russian military's hold over the Far East continues to weaken, the dwindling number of Siberians will look nervously upon the burgeoning population of the barren lands of northern China.


HISTORY SHOWS THAT A RUSSIA-CHINA AXIS IS INEFFECTIVE AND NOTHING TO FEAR
Chikahito Harada, Intl. Institute for Strategic Studies, July, 1997; RUSSIA AND NORTH-EAST ASIA, Adelphi Paper 310, p. 45-46, acs-VT99

To present a unified position is one thing, but whether such a position can bring about any real political change is quite another. So far at least, a unified Sino-Russian position has created no tangible political result. Indeed, Russia and China have had difficulty agreeing on many specific issues. As was demonstrated during Yeltsin's visit to Beijing in 1996, China is happy to support Russia when the issue concerned does not affect its own interests or influence, for example, NATO enlargement. China's opposition to NATO enlargement in fact had no impact on the process. However, while Russia might expect to play a greater role in the Asia-Pacific region, China will not support Russia where its critical interests are at stake or where its own influence might be challenged. This was clearly demonstrated by China's cautious attitude to Russia's involvement in the Korean Peninsula issue. There is thus a limit to the viability and unity of the positions the two countries can adopt, even on a case-by-case basis .


CHINA WILL NOT WAGE WAR AGAINSTTHE WEST
CHINA WILL NOT GO TO WAR BECAUSE ITS ECONOMY IS TOO INTEGRATED INTO THE GLOBAL SYSTEM

Fred Edwards, assistant city editor, The Toronto Star, July 7, 1997, Pg. A15, HEADLINE: Fear of conflict with China overblown Differences are great between it and Soviet Union acs-VT99

China, however, is fully integrated into the global economy. Bilateral trade with the United States is worth about $ 60 million a year; direct foreign investment last year was $ 42 billion.

Any conflict with China, therefore, would be extremely disruptive to the international economy, and would be devastating for the economies of Taiwan, Japan and South Korea, key U.S. friends in the region.

The Chinese economy also would suffer.
CHINA IS NOT ANOTHER VERSION OF THE OLD SOVIET EMPIRE, AND IS NOT NEARLY AS DANGEROUS
Fred Edwards, assistant city editor, The Toronto Star, July 7, 1997, Pg. A15, HEADLINE: Fear of conflict with China overblown Differences are great between it and Soviet Union acs-VT99

While there is no doubt China has a nasty government, an increasingly assertive foreign policy and ever stronger military forces, there are significant differences between it and the old Soviet Union that suggest these concerns are exaggerated.


JUDGE CHINA BY ITS ACTIONS, NOT BY YOUR FEARS. FEARING CONFLICT WITH CHINA ONLY MAKES CONFLICT MORE LIKELY
Fred Edwards, assistant city editor, The Toronto Star, July 7, 1997, Pg. A15, HEADLINE: Fear of conflict with China overblown Differences are great between it and Soviet Union acs-VT99

China, however, should be judged by its actions, not by fears about what it might do. If Beijing contravenes international standards, whether on human rights, trade practices or in foreign relations, the West should take firm counter-measures.

But to base policy on the expectation of conflict risks making conflict more likely.
CHINESE EXPANSION IS WITHIN ITS OWN REGION AND DOES NOT THREATEN OTHER MAJOR POWERS
Fred Edwards, assistant city editor, The Toronto Star, July 7, 1997, Pg. A15, HEADLINE: Fear of conflict with China overblown Differences are great between it and Soviet Union acs-VT99

China, on the other hand, is projecting its power only in its own region, notably in the South China Sea. This is a concern, particularly for countries such as Vietnam and the Philippines. It is not, however, a threat to Western security in the way the expansion of Soviet power was. China poses no ideological threat.


CHINA AND RUSSIA AGREE THAT THE USA SHOULD DOMINATE THE WORLD, SO AN AXIS BETWEEN THEM IS A NATURAL RESULT
BY 2010 RUSSIA WILL BE ABLE TO TIP THE BALANCE OF WORLD POWER AWAY FROM THE USA AND TOWARDS CHINA
Gwynne Dyer, Univ. of Toronto, Star Tribune (Minneapolis, MN), May 5, 1998, Pg. 15A, HEADLINE: Bigger NATO may be an even bigger mistake // acs-VT99

In the world of 2010, the two greatest powers will probably be the United States and China - and Russia will be third, with the choice of throwing its weight either way. Maybe that won't matter, because it will be a peaceful world where military alliances are a thing of the past. But maybe it won't be that kind of world.


BOTH CHINA AND RUSSIA ARE COMMITTED TO A MULTI-POLAR WORLD
Gennady Chufrin, SINGAPORE STRAITS TIMES, October 10, 1997 HEADLINE: China and Russia : Just ties, no alliance acs-VT99

That understanding of commonality of basic Sino-Russian national interests in the present world received new proof during another summit meeting of Russian and Chinese leaders held in Moscow in April this year, when President Yeltsin and Mr Jiang Zemin signed a joint declaration on principles of a new international world order.

In this declaration, Russia and China categorically rejected any designs to establish a uni-polar world system and supported the concept of a multi-polar world order which, in their opinion, would help to preserve world peace and security in the interests of all countries and not of a selected few.
RUSSIA AND CHINA OPPOSE THE US BEING, THE SOLE SUPERPOWER. THEY WANT THE WORLD TO BE MULTI POLAR
Zhon-guo Xinwen She news agency, February 18, 1998 [Beijing, in Chinese 18 Feb 98. BBC Summary of World Broadcasts, February 21, 1998. HEADLINE: Premier says multipolarity a Russian-Chinese response in dealing with USA\\jan]VT99

A reporter asked: Can the Russo-Chinese strategic cooperative partnership restrain the desire of the United States to exclusively dominate [du ba 3747 7218] the world?

Li Peng replied: China and Russia agreed that the world should be multipolar and not be led by one or two countries. Various countries in the world, which can all bring into play their individual roles, should manage world affairs.

He reiterated: China will not seek world hegemony and opposes any country in doing so. China and Russia hold that multipolarization is beneficial to world peace and stability. As permanent members of the U-N Security Council, both China and Russia are countries of important influence in the world. China and Russia share bipartisan or similar viewpoints and stances in many major international and regional issues as well as maintaining close contacts and consultations. Under the current situation of multipolarization and accelerated development, it is of vital significance that the two countries, in accordance with the Sino-Russian strategic cooperative partnership, further strengthen their cooperation in international affairs. The Chinese side is willing to work with Russia to push forward a peaceful solution to the Iraqi arms inspection crisis...


AS US INFLUENCE INCREASES, CHINA WILL MOVE TO CLOSER TIES WITH RUSSIA
Jennifer Anderson, Intl. Institute for Strategic Studies, December, 1997; THE LIMITS OF SINO-RUSSIAN STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP, Adelphi Paper 315; p. 19 , acs-VT99

China saw a multipolar post-Cold War world as most likely to foster its political and economic development. Perceived US 'hegemony' became a threat to this new order, and to Beijing's preference for rigid principles of state sovereignty. 12 Russia's appeals to partnership therefore chimed with China's concerns about the implications of US strength.


CHINA AND RUSSIA ARE STRONG PARTNERS WITH A GOOD RELATIONSHIP
RUSSIA AND CHINA ARE NOW MOVING TO A “STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP”
Gennady Chufrin, SINGAPORE STRAITS TIMES, October 10, 1997 HEADLINE: China and Russia : Just ties, no alliance acs-VT99

Not only did it describe the current Sino-Russian relationship as one of equal and trustworthy partnership, but it also stated an intention of both sides to develop strategic cooperation in the 21st century that would be mutually advantageous and help to preserve peace and security in the Asia-Pacific, as well as in the world at large.

Naturally, this document invited much comment on the nature of such a "strategic partnership" and raised questions as to what could be its consequences for other countries.
RUSSIA AND CHINA THINK OF THEMSELVES NOW AS GOOD PARTNERS
Gennady Chufrin, SINGAPORE STRAITS TIMES, October 10, 1997 HEADLINE: China and Russia : Just ties, no alliance acs-VT99

A REVIVAL of close political and economic ties between Russia and China, a phenomenon unthinkable only a decade ago, has become one of the most remarkable events in international relations.

Indeed, after almost three decades of fierce ideological, political and even military confrontation, Moscow and Beijing regard each other now, if not as friends-in-arms as they were in the late 1940s and early 1950s, then certainly as good partners.
RUSSIA-CHINA RELATIONS ARE AT AN ALL TIME HIGH
Angela Stent, professor of government at Georgetown University, Heritage Foundation Reports, April 6, 1998; Pg. 23, HEADLINE: RUSSIAN FOREIGN POLICY: THE NEW PRAGMATISM acs-VT99

The recent improvement in Russia's relations with both China and Japan reflects a coincidence of interest between Primakov and Kremlin reformers interested in improving external economic ties. Today, Russian -- Chinese relations are better than at any time since Mao Tse-tung took power in 1949. Now that ideological rivalry is no longer an issue, past tensions have been defused.


CHINA FEELS LIKE IT NEEDS RUSSIA ON ITS SIDE IN ORDER TO FEEL SAFE
Gennady Chufrin, SINGAPORE STRAITS TIMES, October 10, 1997 HEADLINE: China and Russia : Just ties, no alliance acs-VT99

As to China, it needed good relations with Russia to proceed with its own reforms using, for these purposes, vast Russian natural resources as well as certain technologies.And, of course, in its quarrels with the US and its allies over the future of Taiwan, China was particularly interested to have Moscow on its side.


CHINA WANTS TO BE FRIENDS WITH RUSSIA TO COUNTERBALANCE THE WEST AND TO MODERNIZE ITS MILITARY
Andrey Grachev, Publicist, Moscow News, August 7, 1997, HEADLINE: Russia Is Looking to the East acs-VT99

China, for its part, is interested in demonstrating a rapprochement with Russia, in order to increase its political weight in the eyes of the West with the "Russian card," and to modernize its army on the basis of Russia's more state-of-the-art technology, raising the standard of its equipment to the level of its new strategic ambitions.


CHINESE AND RUSSIAN COOPERATION HAVE SPREAD A ZONE OF PEACE IN ASIA
RUSSIA AND CHINA HAVE REACHED NEW AND IMPORTANT BORDER AGREEMENTS
Gennady Chufrin, SINGAPORE STRAITS TIMES, October 10, 1997 HEADLINE: China and Russia : Just ties, no alliance acs-VT99

These border agreements undoubtedly helped to resolve many sensitive and delicate issues in Sino-Russian relations, including long-standing and potentially explosive territorial disputes. Besides, they also helped to establish a proper climate for resolving still outstanding border problems, the biggest of which being a large influx of illegal Chinese immigrants into Russia.


CHINA AND RUSSIA WORK TOGETHER TO KEEP STABILITY IN CENTRAL ASIA
Jennifer Anderson, Intl. Institute for Strategic Studies, December, 1997; THE LIMITS OF SINO-RUSSIAN STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP, Adelphi Paper 315; p. 51-52 acs-VT99

China's desire to promote stability is a key factor in prompting Russian leaders and analysts to view Beijing as a strategic partner Russian supporters of partnership see it as a means to stabilise the southern and eastern Russian periphery. Moscow believes that Beijing can help in resisting the 'Western, and particularly the Turkish, advances in Central Asia and the Caspian Oil Basin', and 'provide Moscow with a lever on Pakistan, obliging it to rein in the Afghan Islamists and prevent the destabilisation of Tajikistan'. Press reports claim that Chinese diplomats in Islamabad have sought assurances from the Pakistani government to that effect. Russia has attempted to invoke the twin threats of NATO expansion to China's borders (through Central Asia's participation in the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) and PFP) and Islamic fundamentalism in Afghanistan and Tajikistan to draw China - at least superficially into its preferred strategic understanding.


RUSSIA AND CHINA ARE WORKING TO DEMILITARIZE CENTRAL ASIA
Angela Stent, professor of government at Georgetown University, Heritage Foundation Reports, April 6, 1998; Pg. 23, HEADLINE: RUSSIAN FOREIGN POLICY: THE NEW PRAGMATISM acs-VT99

Both countries [RUSSIA AND CHINA] also signed demilitarization agreements with Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan limiting troop deployments along these borders. Russia and China fear the rise of fundamentalist Islam on their borders and within their societies, and this has also brought them closer together.


RUSSIAN SECURITY COOPERATION WITH CHINA IS STABILIZING THE CENTRAL ASIAN REGION
Chikahito Harada, Intl. Institute for Strategic Studies, July, 1997; RUSSIA AND NORTH-EAST ASIA, Adelphi Paper 310, p. 72-73 , acs-VT99

On terms of its security, Russia has achieved significant and concrete arms-reduction and CBMs with China along their common borders. Russia has also improved its security relations with Japan and South Korea, particularly in the area of CBMs. This web of bilateral security ties could help to stabilise the security environment of North-east Asia


RUSSIA AND CHINA WORKED TOGETHER TO REIN IN A DISRUPTIVE RUSSIAN GOVERNOR OF THE MARITIME PROVINCE
Gennady Chufrin, SINGAPORE STRAITS TIMES, October 10, 1997 HEADLINE: China and Russia : Just ties, no alliance acs-VT99

These agreements held even when Mr Yevgeni Nazdratenko, governor of the maritime province, disagreed with the way the Sino-Russian border was demarcated in some areas and tried to start an ultra-nationalistic obstructionist campaign on this issue.

This unfortunate incident was resolved, however, in a very amicable fashion by the Russian and the Chinese governments who, acting in the larger interests of mutual cooperation, compromised their positions on the disputed border area. The second part of the problem (demilitarisation of the border) was resolved when the Moscow Declaration was supplemented by an agreement between Russia and China, also signed in April this year. According to this agreement, Russia assumed an obligation to reduce, within two years, the size of its armed forces in a 100-km border zone with China by 15 per cent, while Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Kirghizia, who joined this agreement, declared a complete withdrawal of troops from their borders with China.
RUSSIA AND CHINA WORK TOGETHER TO DEFUSE NORTH KOREA'S NUCLEAR WEAPONS PROGRAM
Jennifer Anderson, Intl. Institute for Strategic Studies, December, 1997; THE LIMITS OF SINO-RUSSIAN STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP, Adelphi Paper 315; p. 63-64 , acs-VT99

Russia and China have parallel interests on the Korean Peninsula, not least preventing the spread of nuclear weapons. Both countries tried to reposition themselves towards the end of the Cold War by cooling relations with their erstwhile ally Pyongyang and developing closer ties with Seoul. In November 1992, Yeltsin announced that Russia would abandon or modify the 1961 Soviet-North Korea Treaty, particularly Article I which promised Russian assistance in the event of conflict. Bilateral relations declined steadily, culminating in South Korean President Kim Young Sam's visit to Moscow in June 1994, during which he and Yeltsin declared a I constructive and mutually complementary partnership'. China was more cautious, preferring to maintain ties with Pyongyang while recognising Seoul.


RUSSIA AND CHINA HAVE INHERENTLY CONFLICTING INTERESTS, AND ARE NOT ABLE TO WORK CLOSELY TOGETHER
RELATIONS BETWEEN RUSSIA AND CHINA INVOLVE SERIOUS CONFLICTS OF INTEREST
Jennifer Anderson, Intl. Institute for Strategic Studies, December, 1997; THE LIMITS OF SINO-RUSSIAN STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP, Adelphi Paper 315; p. 9-10 acs-VT99

However, the substance of the relationship belies its rhetoric. China's rise as an East Asian power prompts fears in Russia about Beijing's long-term intentions; cross-border ties remain fraught, mutual suspicions high and cultural differences stark. Two-way trade has proved volatile and will almost certainly not reach its declared target by 2000. Elements in Russia have resisted border agreements. Rather than compatible partners, the two countries are more realistically competitors for US and European capital and diplomatic attention.


RUSSIA AND CHINA ARE NOT HOSTILE POWERS, BUT A TRUE COOPERATIVE RELATIONSHIP HAS NOT EMERGED
Jennifer Anderson, Intl. Institute for Strategic Studies, December, 1997; THE LIMITS OF SINO-RUSSIAN STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP, Adelphi Paper 315; p. 11 acs-VT99

As a result, Russia and China's relationship in the late 1990s is uneven, largely rhetorical and elite-driven, complicating the stillincomplete normalisation process. Both countries understand the risks of returning to outright confrontation, but, despite statements to the contrary, a 'normal' relationship has yet to be established.


RUSSIA AND CHINA WANT ASIAN STABILITY BUT ARE NOT ABLE TO WORK EFFECTIVELY TO PROMOTE IT
Jennifer Anderson, Intl. Institute for Strategic Studies, December, 1997; THE LIMITS OF SINO-RUSSIAN STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP, Adelphi Paper 315; p. 57-58 acs-VT99

Central Asian stability is a common goal of Russia and China; their policies towards the region and each other are mutually supportive. However, there is little evidence that shared concerns have led to overt coordination or partnership. Russia and China have signed an intelligence-sharing agreement that presumably covers Central Asia and Afghanistan. But relations are best described as suspended competition rather than active cooperation or a diplomatic framework to enhance strategic interests.


CLOSE RELATIONS BETWEEN CHINA AND RUSSIA ARE DANGEROUS
CLOSER USA TIES TO CHINA MAKE ASIAN NATIONS FEEL LIKE THEY NEED TRO ACQUIRE NUCLEAR WEAPONS
JOHN J. MEARSHEIMER; professor of political science at the University of Chicago, The Houston Chronicle, May 20, 1998, Pg. 29, HEADLINE: Just have to live with spread of nuclear weapons // acs-VT99

Another case of clashing interests involves China and India. The United States wants to avoid a confrontation with China by engaging it diplomatically and economically, which is why Clinton will visit Beijing next month.

India fears China's growing power, however, and is already suspicious that the United States is trying to reach an accommodation with China at India's expense. So Clinton's visit may solve one problem but worsen another by causing anxiety in India, making it feel less secure and more convinced than ever that it needs a robust nuclear deterrent.

All these factors combine to make it likely that other states will follow in India's footsteps. This means that the United States will have to learn to live with the spread of nuclear weapons in the decades ahead.

We should try to manage and contain this process, but we cannot stop it.
GOOD RELATIONS WITH RUSSIA ALLOW CHINA TO ENGAGE IN SEA LANE POWER PROJECTION
Jennifer Anderson, Intl. Institute for Strategic Studies, December, 1997; THE LIMITS OF SINO-RUSSIAN STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP, Adelphi Paper 315; p. 73-74 , acs-VT99

The Yeltsin government's defence and strategic cooperation with China, combined with a commitment to lessening military pressure along their joint border, highlights the most troubling aspect of China's rise - its alteration from an inward-looking, continental power to a growing regional player on its southern and eastern maritime fringe. As one Pentagon analyst has explained: 'By securing its land relationships and tidying up immediate borders, China can pursue longer-term interests, which lie increasingly in the sea lanes' which are of direct strategic concern to the partnership could potentially influence China's development in one of two ways.


CHINA WILL ATTACK A WEAK RUSSIA
A WEAK RUSSIA IS A TARGET FOR CHINESE ADVENTURISM
Jennifer Anderson, Intl. Institute for Strategic Studies, December, 1997; THE LIMITS OF SINO-RUSSIAN STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP, Adelphi Paper 315; p. 30 acs-VT99

These debates reflect the fact that Moscow cannot maintain its past levels of control over Russia's Far East, and that its position is declining as China's strength grows. As former Prime Minister Yegor Gaidar explained in 1995: 'With our weakness, our huge unassimilated territories in the Far East, we provoke a threat' . As in European Russia, the Far East's population has fallen from a peak in 1991 of 8.1m to 7. 8M. By contrast, some 74m people live in Heilongjiang and Jilin, and over 100m in the north-east as a whole (Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning and Inner Mongolia). Former Deputy Prime Minister Sergei Shakrai has claimed that the population could decline by as much as two-thirds by 2010, warning that 'for the first time in four centuries China has surpassed Russia's rate of economic growth'.


IF CHINESE EXPANSION IN OTHER AREAS IS BLOCKED, IT WILL TURN ON RUSSIA
Jennifer Anderson, Intl. Institute for Strategic Studies, December, 1997; THE LIMITS OF SINO-RUSSIAN STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP, Adelphi Paper 315; p. 75 acs-VT99

Russian analysts and political leaders are also aware of the implications should China adopt a more assertive stance in the future." Russian analyst Dmitry Trenin argues that, over the next 10-15 years, 'the relative weakness of Russia and strength of China will become clearer' and that 'it is this reality that Russian leaders should bear in mind today'.-' Aleksey Arbartov warns: “The hope of 'placating' China with huge shipments of arms and military technology, securing its border trade, and taking advantage of the mounting friction in Chinese-japanese relations is just as naive and anti-historical as it is dangerous for Russia. Nothing will keep China from turning to the north at the convenient time if its access to the east and south I is blocked by strong forces.”


CHINA SEEKS TO INCREASE ITS INFLUENCE IN THE FAR EAST PROVINCES AT THE EXPENSE OF RUSSIA'S INFLUENCE
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