Affirmative section consultation and cooperation through dialogue networks



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SUSPICIONS ABOUT EVIL RUSSIAN INTENT TOWARDS THE REST OF THE WORLD ARE INCORRECT AND DANGEROUS
Strobe Talbott; Deputy Secretary of State, US Department of State Dispatch, August 18, 1997; Pg. 22; HEADLINE: The end of the beginning: the emergence of a new Russia; acs-VT99

There is still a lot of skepticism on this point that resonates in our national debate about Russia and U.S. policy. Many experts and commentators start from a presumption of guilt about Russia's strategic intentions. They nurture a suspicion that Russians are predisposed genetically, or at least historically, to aggression and imperialism.

I believe that's the wrong way to think about the issue. The right way is the one Ian Buruma articulated in his book, The Wages of Guilt. He was writing about two other great nations -- Germany and Japan -- whose peoples were, not so long ago, feared, and hated, as inherently militaristic. "There are," said Buruma, "no dangerous peoples; there are only dangerous situations, which are the result, not of laws of nature or history, or of national character, but of political arrangements."
RUSSIA WILL PURSUE ITS VITAL INTERESTS IN FOREIGN POLICY, NOT IDEOLOGY
The Baltimore Sun, April 16, 1998, Pg. 2A, HEADLINE: Moscow's into tough love again , acs-VT99

Vladimir Averchev, a member of parliament with the generally liberal Yabloko bloc, says it's more complicated than that.

A new and different Russia is emerging, he says, and is pursuing a foreign policy based on its national interests, rather than on ideology. Primakov may bring a Soviet style, but with him are many younger politicians and business leaders who do not disagree with the approach.

"Some conflicts are inevitable," Averchev concludes.


RUSSIA HAS ESTABLISHED SUCCESSFUL RELATIONS WITH THE WEST
Paul Marantz, Prof. Political Science Univ. British Columbia, 1997; THE FOREIGN POLICY OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION, p. 96-97, acs-VT99

If we step back from day-to-day events and survey the entire period of post-Communist Russia's relations with the West from January 1992 to the present, there are more reasons for satisfaction than disappointment. It is true, of course, that the euphoria that accompanied the end of the Cold War and the birth of the new Russia has long since dissipated. The honeymoon in East-West relations, like most honeymoons, did not last long. However, it has been replaced not by marital violence or bitter divorce, but by a mature recognition of the importance of sustaining the relationship through improved communication, understanding of the other side's viewpoint, and hard work.


RUSSIAN FOREIGN POLICY TOWARDS ASIA IS BASED ON RATIONAL AND LOGICAL CONCEPTS
F. Seth Singleton, Prof. Political Science Pacific Univ., 1997; THE FOREIGN POLICY OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION, p. 121-122 , acs-VT99

Russian policy in Asia, particularly since the consolidation of the Yeltsin government in 1993, can be summarized in five main points. First, Russia will try to avoid major crises in Asia; currently, security can better be provided by diplomacy and accommodation than by confrontation. Second, Russia will hold on to its sphere of influence in the 'near abroad', which in Asia extends to the borders of the former Soviet Union but not beyond. Third, Russia will do whatever it can to further its economic interests. Trade expansion, including arms sales, becomes a virtual imperative. Fourth, Russia will defend its prestige as a great power, even if this leads to occasional inflexibility. Finally, Russian leaders must listen to the voices of nationalist voters, particularly on such emotional issues as illegal Chinese immigration, Russians in northern Kazakhstan, or the Kurils.


RUSSIAN ASIAN POLICY IS BASED ON SOUND PRINCIPLES AND IS CONTROLLED BY PUBLIC OPINION
F. Seth Singleton, Prof. Political Science Pacific Univ., 1997; THE FOREIGN POLICY OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION, p. 122 , acs-VT99

In sum, Russia now follows a normal foreign policy towards Asia, devoid of ideological propaganda or messianic spirit, and influenced by public opinion. In the late 1990s, policy in Asia will seek accommodation and avoid confrontation, but it may shift toward greater assertiveness with the political and economic stabilization of the Russian state. Russians recognize the fragility of the present Asian era of good feelings and hope it will last long enough for their recovery to take hold.


RUSSIA’S FOREIGN POLICY IS AIMED AT CREATING JOBS AT HOME FIRST AND FOREMOST
Konstantin Eggert, Russian Press Digest, August 23, 1997 HEADLINE: Russia Must Not Drive Itself Into Impasse, SOURCE: IZVESTIA, p. 3 acs-VT99

Russia's foreign policy is directly dependent on the country's economic situation. "Any encroachment on the interests of Russian exporters and manufacturers is unacceptable" since what is at stake is jobs in Russia. It is "absolutely necessary" for Russia to develop diversified economic ties with the United States, the European Union, China, South-East Asian nations and Japan. Moscow's "constrained" relations with Tokyo are entering "a new phase."


RUSSIAN FOREIGN POLICY WILL NOT BE ITS MAIN FOCUS -- DOMESTIC POLICY WILL BE
Leon Aron, resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, The Weekly Standard, April 20, 1998: Pg. 23, HEADLINE: THE REMARKABLE RISE OF DEMOCRATIC RUSSIA , acs-VT99

Except in these instances, Yeltsin ranks foreign policy a distant second to his domestic agenda and uses it to accommodate the opposition rather than to expend his political capital.


A STABLE AND FREE RUSSIA IS THE BEST FOREIGN POLICY POSSIBLE
SOLVING RUSSIA'S POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC PROBLEMS IS THE BEST WAY TO MAKE IT A CONSTRUCTIVE CONTRIBUTOR TO WORLD AFFAIRS
Chikahito Harada, Intl. Institute for Strategic Studies, July, 1997; RUSSIA AND NORTH-EAST ASIA, Adelph! Paper 310, p. 73 , acs-VT99

Russia's place in the international arena undoubtedly depends on the future of its political and economic reforms. Russia needs to become a constructive player and to take some responsibility for maintaining regional peace and stability. This is in the interests of Russia, the region and the West as a whole.


AN ISOLATED AND IMPOVERISHED RUSSIA IS BAD NEWS FOR WORLD PEACE
Chikahito Harada, Intl. Institute for Strategic Studies, July, 1997; RUSSIA AND NORTH-EAST ASIA, Adelphi Paper 310, p. 75 , acs-VT99

An isolated, sullen, impoverished Russia would present a greater challenge to a stable world order than a healthy, competitive Russia that is part of that order.


USA-RUSSIA RELATIONS ARE EXCELLENT AND WILL STAY THAT WAY
USA RELATIONS WITH RUSSIA ARE VERY STRONG AND VERY CLOSE NOW
Nikolai Morozov, TASS, March 19, 1998, HEADLINE: US diplomat describes US-Russian relations as good, close; acs-VT99

U. S. Deputy Secretary of State Strobe Talbott described American-Russian relations as good and close.

Talbott told journalists in Bucharest on Thursday that the contacts between U. S. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright and Russian Foreign Minister Yevgeny Primakov confirmed this fact. Albright and Primakov had cooperated during the Iraqi crisis and continued to maintain dialogue to ease tension in Kosovo.

Rather fruitful and exclusively personal relations with Russian partners were useful not only for the United States and Russia, but for the entire world, and for the region where Romania is located, the American diplomat said.


A NEW COLD WAR BETWEEN THE US AND RUSSIA WILL NOT OCCUR
Alexey K. Pushkov, March 5, 1998 [Pushkov is a foreign affairs columnist at the Nezavissimaya Gazeta in Moscow. The Daily Yomiuri. SECTION: Pg. 5. HEADLINE: Russia-U.S. ties enter new stage as 'controlled rivalry' appears\\jan]VT99

Let us be certain: The dispute over Iraq has not and will not lead to another Cold War. With the communist system gone, and global rivalry no longer corresponding to Russia's goals or to its present possibilities, there are simply no grounds for a new Cold War. Neither does a new confrontation correspond to U.S. interests.


THE USA HAS BEEN ACTIVE IN INTEGRATING RUSSIA INTO THE WORLD COMMUNITY
Strobe Talbott; Deputy Secretary of State, US Department of State Dispatch, August 18, 1997; Pg. 22; HEADLINE: The end of the beginning: the emergence of a new Russia; acs-VT99

We are not just letting this happen -- we are helping make it happen. We are doing what we can to ensure that the international community is as open as possible to Russia. That's why we pushed in Denver for the expansion of the G-7 agenda to become the Summit of the Eight. That's also why, in Helsinki, President Clinton and President Yeltsin set a joint goal to work toward Russian accession in 1998 to the World Trade Organization and to launch a dialogue in Paris that will accelerate Russia's admission to the OECD.

Then there's the Asia-pacific Economic Cooperation forum. When Secretary Albright and the other APEC ministers meet in November in Vancouver, they will be setting the criteria for new members, and we will support Russia's admission to APEC as it meets those standards.
USA-RUSSIA RELATIONS HAVE BEEN IMPROVING STEADILY SINCE 1991
Official Kremlin Int'l News Broadcast, MAY 12, 1998, HEADLINE: ROUND-TABLE DISCUSSION ON THE START II RATIFICATION PROCESS // acs-VT99

[Polyakov Mikhail Mikhailovich, acting chief of the International Treaty Directorate of the Defense Ministry ]

Nobody can deny the fact that Russian- American relations have substantially improved since 1991. We no longer regard each other as we did some ten years ago. The presidents of the two countries have announced the non-targeting of the respective missiles. And this shows that we should view the overall situation with due account for all factors.
THE NEW GLOBAL ORDER WILL NOT ALLOW FOR A USA-RUSSIA CONFRONTATION, EVEN AS A LOW KEY RIVALRY REMAINS
Alexei K. Pushkov; Russian Council on Foreign and Defense Policies.

International Herald Tribune, April 2, 1998, SECTION: Opinion; Pg. 6, HEADLINE: Russia and America Aren't Foes but Have to Be Rivals acs-VT99

The ''end of ideology,'' at least of the Communist one in the case of Russia, precludes a new global confrontation. It does not preclude rivalry between Russia and the United States due to difference of interests. However, the Iraqi crisis showed that it can be a rivalry of partners, and not that of antagonists. Such rivalry supposes a capacity to listen to each other and a desire to reach a balance of interests.
USA FOREIGN POLICY DECISIONS ARE MADE SO THAT THEY DO NOT HAVE ADVERSE CONSEQUENCES IN RUSSIA
CURRENT USA POLICIES ARE MADE WITH AN EYE TOWARDS INFLUENCING RUSSIAN DOMESTIC POLITICAL EVOLUTION
Kenneth R. Timmerman.; The American Spectator, May, 1998, HEADLINE: Strobe Talbott: Russia's Man In Washington // acs-VT99

Weldon and congressional leaders all agree that Talbott is the man driving the administration's reckless neglect of Russian roguishness. "U. S. policies toward Russia are being calculated to Strobe Talbott's estimation of how it will affect internal Russian politics," a top aide to majority leader Trent Lott said. "I think instead we should peg our policies to Russian behavior."


CLINTON DOESN’T MAKE FOREIGN POLICY DECISIONS BASED ON DOMESTIC POLITICS, BUT HAS A CLEAR STRATEGY
Morton M. Kondracke, Roll Call, JULY 7, 1997, HEADLINE: Surprise! Clinton Is a Good Foreign Policy President acs-VT99

But contrary to the rap that his foreign policy is driven simply by domestic politics, there is a distinct vision to Clinton's view of the US place in the world, if not exactly a grand strategy.

One scholar has identified seven models for the shape of the world's future, and the evidence suggests that Clinton isn't confused about which one he believes in.

Clearly, Clinton thinks that the United States is the world's lone superpower, the "indispensable nation" without which nothing useful can be achieved. Some Clinton aides say that, de facto, the world lives under a Pax Americana and that Clinton wants to keep it that way.


USA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT REFORMIST ELEMENTS IN RUSSIA
Andrei Shchitov, TASS, September 18, 1997, HEADLINE: Washington "encourages" reforms in Russia - US diplomat acs-VT99

U. S. Deputy Secretary of State Strobe Talbott called efforts of Russian reformers a real feat. The United States supported and will support as well as encourage Russian reforms, he added at a meeting with reporters, which was held at the editorial office of the Foreign Policy magazine published in Washington by the Carnegie Foundation to promote universal peace.


CLINTON ACTS AND MAKES DECISIONS BASED ON HOW THEY WILL BE RECEIVED IN RUSSIA
MICHAEL S. LELYVELD, Journal of Commerce, May 26, 1998, Pg. 1A, HEADLINE: Sanctions on Russia face veto; Senate passes Iran penalties after president delays action acs-VT99

The president's decision to delay punishing the Russian proliferators seems to have less to do with congressional strategy than with softening the blow in Moscow, said one Democratic staff member. By waiting until after the vote, Mr. Clinton can tell President Boris Yeltsin that Congress forced him to take some action against Russian companies.


USA AND RUSSIA HAVE A GOOD RELATIONSHIP -- THEY DISAGREE ABOUT SOME ISSUES OPENLY, BUT AGREE ON ALL THE MAJOR ONES
RUSSIA WILL DISAGREE WITH THE USA ON ONLY MARGINAL FOREIGN POLICY ISSUES, NOT ON THE EXTREMELY IMPORTANT ONES
Daniel Williams; Washington Post Service, International Herald Tribune, November 22, 1997, Pg. 7, HEADLINE: Russia's Balancing Act; How to Stand Up to U.S. but Avoid Conflict acs-VT99

Because Russian complaints about the dominant role of the United States in the world form the background music for Russian policy, an impression has been created of growing hostility. Certainly, the days of unquestioning cooperation with America that marked the last years of the Soviet Union are over, Russian observers say. But they pointedly argue that Russia cannot afford a break with Washington. '' Russia is likely to deviate from the United States only on the margins,'' said Andrei Kortunov, director of the Russian Research Foundation. ''But the name of the game now is still integration with the West, the quest for financial credits, the need for investment, so full independence of action is limited.''


RUSSIA IS SEEKING FOR COOPERATIVE AND PRODUCTIVE WAYS TO DISAGREE WITH THE USA
Martin Sieff; THE WASHINGTON TIMES, May 4, 1998, Pg. A1, HEADLINE: Russia raises stakes against NATO; Tensions increase as Moscow balks at alliance's growth // acs-VT99

"The Russian government is following a general approach of seeking to find areas where it can define itself in opposition to perceived interests of the United States and where it can find other countries that share its concern," said Helmut Sonnenfeldt of the Brookings Institution, former chief State Department analyst on the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe.


RUSSIA MAINTAINS GOOD RELATIONS WITH THE USA BUT DOES DISAGREE WITH MIDDLE EAST POLICIES
David McHugh Staff Writer, The Moscow Times, May 13, 1998, HEADLINE: President Applauds Primakov's Policy Line // acs-VT99

While seeking to maintain good relations with the United States, Primakov has sought to counterbalance American influence in the Middle East and in relations with China. Russia and the United States have also clashed over Russia's relations with Iraq and Iran, considered outlaw states by the American government.


RUSSIA IS BECOMING AN ALLY LIKE FRANCE: FRIENDLY BUT WILLING TO DISAGREE
Amos Perlmutter, professor of political science and sociology American University, The Washington Times, May 26, 1998, Pg. A17, HEADLINE: A new Russian foreign policy? acs-VT99

Leon Aron suggests an historical analogy in the post-perestroika Russian foreign policy with Gaullism, a Russian assertiveness in international politics. Mr. Aron is suggesting it rapidly moved from protest to opposition. According to Mr. Aron, there are three Russian foreign policy options: Russia sharing a nuclear superpower role with the United States; Russia as a great power; and third, Russia a regional superpower, meaning Russia's influence will project in the south and east toward Iraq, Iran, China and India. It is not yet clear which option will prevail.


RUSSIA, LIKE FRANCE, WILL DISAGREE WITH AMERICAN POLICIES, BUT IT WILL NOT BECOME AMERICA’S ENEMY
Leon Aron, resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, The Weekly Standard, April 20, 1998: Pg. 23, HEADLINE: THE REMARKABLE RISE OF DEMOCRATIC RUSSIA , acs-VT99

Inevitably, given its history, geography, and domestic politics, Russia will find much to dislike in U.S. actions and will challenge them often -- rather as France does. In poll after poll since the fall of the USSR, a majority of Russians has agreed that the United States was "using Russia's current weakness to reduce it to a second-rate power." Wherever the United States provides an opening, either by seeming not to care much about an issue or, as in Iraq, by seeming to hesitate, Russia is likely to assert its claim to be reckoned with as a major international player.

Yet this Russian assertiveness must not be mistaken -- any more than French prickliness is -- for anti-Americanism of the kind professed by the Soviet Union, by Iran in the 1980s, or by Iraq, Cuba, and Libya today. Russia's truculence is not informed by ideology. It is not directed to strategic objectives inimical to the vital interests of the United States, and it is not part of a relentless, "antagonistic" struggle "to the end." Rather, it is pragmatic and selective. And when America's wishes are communicated at the highest level, forcefully and unambiguously, Moscow is likely to moderate its opposition and even extend cooperation, as it did in Bosnia.
RUSSIA IS TAKING ON A ROLE LIKE THAT OF FRANCE -- A FRIENDLY CRITIC OF THE USA
John F. Harris, Washington Post Staff Writer, The Washington , May 04, 1998, Pg. A16, HEADLINE: After NATO Vote, Doubts on U.S.- Russia Rapport // acs-VT99

And he said recent tensions over Iraq and Yugoslavia are an evolution of the U.S.- Russia relationship, not a reversion to Cold War antagonisms. " Russia is developing its own voice," Perry said. "It's developing an identity more like a France, which is a friendly country but has its own interests" that sometimes run counter to Washington's.


RUSSIA AND THE USA DO NOT HAVE A GOOD FOREIGN POLICY RELATIONSHIP
INCREASINGLY, RUSSIA FOREIGN POLICY HAS COME INTO CONFLICT WITH THE USA
Martin Sieff; The Washington Times, April 26, 1998, Pg. A9, HEADLINE: Russia keeps hard-line foreign policy despite new premier , acs-VT99

Russian policies over the past few years have increasingly come into conflict with American ones in a number of areas.

* Belarus, Russia's closest ally in Eastern Europe, is putting diplomatic heat on Poland, which is joining NATO.

* Russia is turning up pressure on Latvia - a candidate for the next proposed phase of NATO expansion - over its alleged treatment of its Russian ethnic minority.

* Washington is angry over Russian arms and nuclear technology sales to Iran. Russia has replied that it desperately needs the hard currency, and that many of the sales have been carried out by private companies.

* Russia and China have openly forged a strategic understanding to prevent any unnamed third power - by implication the United States - from imposing its will uncontrollably around the world.

* Russia wants to resolve Iraq's conflict with the United Nations over arms inspections so that economic sanctions can be lifted and Baghdad can repay billions in debts to Moscow.
US RUSSIAN RELATIONS ARE TENUOUS IN THE STATUS QUO
THE HARTFORD COURANT, February, 15,1998 [SECTION.- COMMENTARY, Pg. C2 HEADLINE: RISKING A BREAK WITH RUSSIA\\j an]VT99

The tenuous nature of the U.S.-Russia relationship was further dramatized last week when a Washington Post reporter, citing, unnamed sources, wrote that Russian companies have sought to sell equipment to Iraq that could be used to manufacture biological weapons. Moscow vehemently denied the allegations while Washington said it could not confirm them. But some members of Congress were inclined to be believe the worst, not trusting Russia in the first Place.


RUSSIAN FOREIGN POLICY ELITE IS IN AN ANTI-USA MOOD
Ariel Cohen; Senior Policy Analyst at The Heritage Foundation, Heritage Foundation Reports, April 6, 1998; Pg. 28, HEADLINE: WHAT KIND OF RELATIONSHIP? WHAT KIND OF RUSSIA? acs-VT99

Russia's foreign policy elite is in the middle of yet another anti-Western swing of the sort we have come to witness for the past 300 years.

That elite is basically the former Soviet foreign policy and security elite. Those few who were brought to the Foreign Ministry building on Smolenskaya Ploshchad' during the tenure of Eduard Shevardnadze have left or were pushed out. There were very few civilians who were introduced into the MO building on Arbatskaya Ploshchad' or into the security decision-making process in the presidency, such as the former national security adviser Baturin. They, too, were pushed out or coopted.
US AND RUSSIAN INTERESTS ARE ON DIVERGENT PATHS
Alexey K. Pushkov, March 5, 1998 [Pushkov is a foreign affairs columnist at the Nezavissimaya Gazeta in Moscow. The Daily Yomiuri. SECTION: Pg. 5. HEADLINE: Russia-U.S. ties enter new stage as 'controlled rivalry' appears\\jan]VT99

In this post-Cold War world, the actions of Russia and the United States are not motivated anymore by global rivalry or ideology but by the logic of their interests. Those interests do not necessarily collide but rather lie in different dimensions. This is due to the difference of challenges and threats Russia and the United States are facing in the modern world.


US-RUSSIAN RELATIONS ARE COOLING IN THE STATUS QUO
Martin Sieff, February 2,1998 [The Washington Times. SECTION: Part A; WORLD; BRIEFING/GLOBAL ISSUES; Pg. A12. HEADLINE: Space dependence: A vulnerability, Leaders warn of inadequacy in U.S. control, // jan]VT99

Attitudes among Russian military and political leaders toward the United States were no longer friendly, as they were five to 10 years ago, the general said. "There is a great deal of hostility, animosity, and they are not very friendly. It is becoming worse," he said.


THERE IS NO DANGER OF A RUSSIA-CHINA ALLIANCE AGAINST THE WEST
THERE IS ABSOLUTELY NO DANGER OF A COMING RUSSIA-CHINA ALLIANCE AGAINST THE WEST
Leon Aron, resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, The Weekly Standard, April 20, 1998: Pg. 23, HEADLINE: THE REMARKABLE RISE OF DEMOCRATIC RUSSIA , acs-VT99

China is relevant to this discussion in another respect as well. Of all the morbid fantasies about a "Russian menace," the coming Sino-Russian alliance against the United States is intellectually the most embarrassing. How plausible is a lasting accord between two giant nations that vie for regional supremacy, share nearly 3,000 miles of border (much of it in dispute), and have competed for centuries for the huge, underpopulated land mass east of the Urals? Like history's other pair of perennial combatants, Germany and France, Russia and China will come together only when both are stable and prosperous democracies -- that is, not in our lifetime, and perhaps not in our children's -- by which time their joining forces is unlikely to threaten the United States.


RUSSIA AND CHINA WILL NOT TEAM UP IN A STRATEGIC ALLIANCE BECAUSE THEY ARE BOTH AGAINST SUCH ALLIANCES
Gennady Chufrin, SINGAPORE STRAITS TIMES, October 10, 1997 HEADLINE: China and Russia : Just ties, no alliance acs-VT99

First of all, it must be made very clear that a new Sino-Russian partnership does not in any way represent a resurrection of the former Sino-Soviet political and military alliance. It is well known that staying out of such alliances is one of the cornerstones of Chinese foreign policy. Entering into such alliances also goes against Russian national interests.

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