Affirmative section consultation and cooperation through dialogue networks



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RUSSIANS KEEP A TIGHT LID ON THEIR NUCLEAR TECHNOLOGY AND OBEY INTERNATIONAL REGIMES
The Des Moines Register, October 13, 1997, Pg.7, HEADLINE: Russian arms exports again gain strength acs-VT99

Russian officials insist they keep a tight lid on nuclear technology and materials that could be used to make atomic bombs. And they maintain that they observe all U.N. arms embargoes and other international agreements.

RUSSIA IS A CONDUIT FOR SPREADING WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION ALL OVER THE WORLD
RUSSIA IS UNABLE TO PAY THE GENERALS AND SCIENTISTS THAT CONTROL THE NUCLEAR STOCKPILE FOR MONTHS ON END. THIS DRAMATICALLY INCREASES THE RISK OF LOOSE NUKES
Crocker Snow Jr., February 17, 1998 [The Worldpaper. HEADLINE: 'There would be life after Doomsday' Nuclear statistics obscure a sea\\jan]VT99

Other experts agree A landmark 1995 study by four authors at Harvard's Kennedy School of Government entitled Avoiding Nuclear Anarchy concluded that: "The number one threat to American national security is loose nuclear weapons and weapons-usable material from Russia. " The authors, led by the school's former dean, Graham Allison, stated that, "It is more likely than not that weapons-usable enriched uranium will soon fall into the hands of a rogue state or terrorist group, who will fashion a crude nuclear device..."

It's been three years since this study was completed. "There are fewer instances of theft or attempted theft than I would have thought," says Allison, referring to the book that documented six such cases in which the perpetrators were caught and captured. "But on the other hand the conditions for the Russian generals and scientists who have custody of the weapons has become much worse than we anticipated. The Russian government has been unable to pay some of these custodians for periods of three and four months. It puts them under tremendous pressure."
MANY MEMBERS OF THE FORMER SOVIET SECURITY ESTABLISHMENT ARE AIDING WOULD BE PROLIFERATERS
Ambassador James Woolsey, FEBRUARY 12, 1998 served as the President's first CIA director., Federal News Service. HEADLINE: HEARING OF THE HOUSE NATIONAL SECURITY COMMITTEE. SUBJECT: THREATS TO NATIONAL SECURITY\\jan]VT99

A second problem with Russia is that many of those who managed the Soviet Unions security establishment, whether in technologgy and intelligence or in military expertise, are now for hire on both the white and the black markets. This makes Russia serious source of proliferation for example, to Iran as the chairman mentioned, a recent series in Izvestia spoke in some detail about a senior Russian military officers having provided assistance to Aum Shinrikyo prior to Aum's chemical attack in the Tokyo subway. And one of the most difficult acts of all this is the inter-penetration of the security services, organized crime and some aspects of Russian business.


THE SITUATION IN RUSSIA IS RIPE FOR NUCLEAR MATERIALS DIVERSION THROUGH A FRIGHTENING NUMBER OF DIFFERENT PATHS
Nurith Aizenman, Washington Monthly, December, 1997; Pg. 17; HEADLINE: National security for sale; government privatization and nuclear terrorism acs-VT99

But this good news also had a dark side: once the nuclear warheads were taken apart, the bomb-grade uranium inside would be more vulnerable to theft. Meanwhile, hundreds of tons of bomb-grade uranium in Russia's existing stockpile lay scattered across the country in insecure storage sites -- guarded, if at all, by demoralized soldiers and nuclear workers who in many instances had not been paid, or even fed, by the cash-strapped Russian government in months. Given the small quantity of enriched uranium required to build a nuclear bomb, the possibilities for disaster seemed limitless: a terrorist group might break into one of the many nuclear warehouses that lacked even rudimentary electronic detection systems and make off with enough uranium to blow up Manhattan. A starving soldier might sneak home a few handfuls of the stuff to sell on the black market -- where it could be snapped up by eager buyers from Iraq, Iran or North Korea. A highly trained, but unemployed nuclear worker might be forced to make ends meet by going to work for one of those rogue nations. And most disturbing of all, in a quest for hard currency, the Russian government might itself be moved to sell wholesale quantities of nuclear material to the highest bidder. (In fact, in 1995 evidence surfaced that the head of Russia's Ministry of Atomic Energy, Victor Mikhailov, was trying to reach just such an arrangement with Iran).


CONDITIONS IN RUSSIA ARE ALLOWING NUCLEAR WEAPONS MATERIALS AND SCIENTISTS TO SPREAD OVER THE GLOBE
JOHN J. MEARSHEIMER; professor of political science at the University of Chicago, The Houston Chronicle, May 20, 1998, Pg. 29, HEADLINE: Just have to live with spread of nuclear weapons // acs-VT99

But today the Soviet Union is no longer there to dampen proliferation in its former sphere of influence. Instead, its collapse has raised the risk that nuclear weapons, materials and scientists will seep to the rest of the world.


THE SOVIET COLLAPSE HAS CREATED A CHEAP UNDERGROUND MARKETPLACE FOR NUCLEAR MATERIALS
JOHN J. MEARSHEIMER; professor of political science at the University of Chicago, The Houston Chronicle, May 20, 1998, Pg. 29, HEADLINE: Just have to live with spread of nuclear weapons // acs-VT99

Second, nuclear knowledge will continue to spread, and the cost of developing nuclear weapons will continue to fall. In the 1940s only the richest states could contemplate building nuclear forces. Today more nations can aspire to nuclear status, and the number of potential aspirants will grow in the future as the price of building these weapons drops further. The Soviet collapse accelerates this trend by creating the potential for a cheap, underground marketplace for nuclear materials.


RUSSIAN POLICY IS TO SELL NUCLEAR TECHNOLOGY TO OTHER NATIONS
Martin Sieff; The Washington Times, April 26, 1998, Pg. A9, HEADLINE: Russia keeps hard-line foreign policy despite new premier , acs-VT99

Even First Deputy Prime Minister Boris Nemtsov, a leading champion of democracy and free-market reform, has publicly urged the selling of Russian nuclear technology ovserseas.

"If there is a single defining principle as to the direction of Russian foreign policy, it is: 'Do your own thing,' " said Keith Bush, a Russia expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
ISRAELI OFFICIALS SAY THAT THE RUSSIAN GOVERNMENT COULD STOP NUCLEAR TRANSFERS IF IT WANTED TO
Steve Rodan, The Jerusalem Post, May 20, 1998, Pg. 2, HEADLINE: Israel, US dispute effectiveness of Congress sanctions on Russia // acs-VT99

Israeli officials responsible for monitoring the transfer of Russian technology to Iran disagree. They said Moscow now has the same capability of stopping transfers of any military technology as the Kremlin did under the former Soviet Union.

At a meeting yesterday, Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu urged visiting Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Victor Possulvalyuk to take steps to halt Russian involvement in Iran's armament efforts. Defense Minister Yitzhak Mordechai and Foreign Ministry Director-General Eytan Bentsur made similar requests in their meetings with him yesterday.
PORTABLE RUSSIAN NUCLEAR DEVICES ARE ON THE LOOSE
Konstantin Eggert , Russian Press Digest, October 7, 1997, HEADLINE: General Lebed Intends To Find "Nuclear Briefcases" SOURCE: IZVESTIA, p. 1 acs-VT99

"I am still convinced that portable nuclear charges do exist," Alexander Lebed said at a Berlin conference devoted to Russia's foreign policy. According to him, in August last year unidentified sources told him one of them was in the hands of Chechen fighters. Although no evidence of the truth of the report was found, Lebed (then Security Council Secretary) ordered the establishment of a commission with his deputy at the head for the purpose of locating "the nuclear briefcases."

Lebed said the commission had gathered enough evidence pointing to the existence of such weapons. They were developed in the United States some 30 years ago, he claimed, and at that time the Soviet Union was on a par with the United States [in the military sphere].
LEBED BELIEVES BRIEFCASE SIZE NUCLEAR DEVICES ARE LOOSE
Konstantin Eggert , Russian Press Digest, October 7, 1997, HEADLINE: General Lebed Intends To Find "Nuclear Briefcases" SOURCE: IZVESTIA, p. 1 acs-VT99

Lebed gave a reminder that he was the first politician to raise the question of "nuclear briefcases" with an American Senator in May. In his opinion, all of them should be located and destroyed to prevent them landing in the hands of terrorists and insane persons.


STOLEN NUCLEAR WEAPONS CAN BE USED
Jonathan Power, The Baltimore Sun, October 14, 1997, Pg. 11A, HEADLINE: Threat of the Russian nuclear mafia acs-VT99

In conversation, Munir Ahmed Khan, the former chairman of the world's nuclear watchdog body, the International Atomic Energy Agency, confirms that opinion here is moving in the same direction as Mr. Freeh's.

Mr. Khan, commenting on the recent allegations made by the former Russian general and national security adviser, Alexander Lebed, that the mafia has stolen Soviet-era nuclear suitcase bombs, says that if this is true they would be usable:

"Competent nuclear scientists, of which there are many out of work and in economic difficulties, could be hired to keep them operational." His view is contrary to statements made by Russian President Boris N. Yeltsin's government.


RUSSIA OBEYS INTERNATIONAL ARMS TRANSFER PROTOCOLS
RUSSIA OBEYS INTERNATIONAL ARMS TRANSFER NORMS AND PROTOCOLS MORE RIGOROUSLY THAN THE NATIONS OF THE WEST
MISCHA GABOVITSCH, Moscow News, September 4, 1997, HEADLINE: EXPORTING RUSSIAN ARMS acs-VT99

In its arms trade, Russia complies with a maximum of ethical norms; unlike the United States and France, who sell arms to Taiwan, Russia does not sell arms to non-recognised states and to adversaries of its strategic partners. The British could say a lot about France's behaviour during the Falklands War....

For example, Moscow refused to sell arms to Pakistan, so as not to heat up the situation in South Asia. In the case of arms deliveries to Indonesia and China, Russia is not breaking any international agreements.
ACCUSATIONS THAT RUSSIA SUPPLIED BALLISTIC MISSILE EQUIPMENT TO IRAN AND EGYPT ARE FALSE
Asia Times, July 14, 1997: Pg. 8 HEADLINE: Moscow dismisses proliferation charges acs-VT99

Tarasov also dismissed assertions that Russia had supplied equipment for ballistic missiles to Iran and Egypt. He noted that an investigation conducted by relevant bodies had not revealed any violations by Russian exporters of national missile technology export-control rules.


YELTSIN WANTS TO STOP THE FLOW OF MISSILE TECHNOLOGY TO IRAN
Paul Bedard; The Washington Times, May 18, 1998, Pg. A14, HEADLINE: Clinton, Yeltsin eye further cuts in arms // acs-VT99

During the wide-ranging meeting - their first in a year - Mr. Clinton won new assurances from Mr. Yeltsin to clamp down on Russian sales of sensitive missile technology to countries such as Iran.

"It is clear that President Yeltsin wants to stop this flow of technology," National Security Adviser Samuel R. Berger said.
RUSSIA IS TRANSFERRING ADVANCED WEAPONS SYSTEMS TO BOTH INDIA AND IRAN
RUSSIAN GOVERNMENT IS ENCOURAGING ILLICIT TECHNOLOGY TRANSFERS TO IRAN
Steve Rodan, The Jerusalem Post, May 20, 1998, Pg. 2, HEADLINE: Israel, US dispute effectiveness of Congress sanctions on Russia // acs-VT99

"Today, the technology transfer is being encouraged by the (Russian) government and is part of its foreign policy of renewing alliances in the Middle East," a senior Israeli official said.


RUSSIA IS HELPING INDIA LAUNCH SEA BASED MISSILES
Periscope Daily Defense News Capsules, April 29, 1998, HEADLINE: INDIA - US TRYING TO THWART TRANSFER OF RUSSIAN TECHNOLOGY , acs-VT99

Russia is helping India to build a sea-launched ballistic missile that can carry a nuclear warhead and strike deep into Pakistan, say senior Clinton administration officials, who fear the programme will inflame simmering tensions in South Asia.

The New York Times, in its lead story on Monday, says the assistance has continued for at least three years, despite assurances from Russia that its scientists are not contributing restricted technology to India s missile programme.

US Vice President Al Gore and other senior administration officials have appealed to Russian officials to halt the support, with little success.


INDIA DENIES RUSSIA IS HELPING IT BUILD MISSILES, AND SO DO THE RUSSIANS, BUT THEY ARE
Periscope Daily Defense News Capsules, April 29, 1998, HEADLINE: INDIA - US TRYING TO THWART TRANSFER OF RUSSIAN TECHNOLOGY , acs-VT99

The Indian government had denied on Monday The New York Times report that Russia was helping India build ballistic missiles that could strike deep into Pakistan. ''India does not have any project of its kind, a defence ministry spokesperson said on Monday.

The New York Times report had said, ''The assistance had continued for at least three years despite assurances from Russia that its scientists are not contributing restricted technology to India s nuclear programme.
RUSSIA HAS HELPED INDIA DEVELOP A SEA LAUNCHED MISSILE WHICH WILL IGNITE TENSIONS WITH PAKISTAN
Periscope Daily Defense News Capsules, April 29, 1998, HEADLINE: INDIA - US TRYING TO THWART TRANSFER OF RUSSIAN TECHNOLOGY , acs-VT99

It [NYT] says India, which had long had military ties with Russia, has been trying for years to develop a series of more powerful missiles. Although not tested, the sea- launched missile, the Sagarika, is said to have a range of nearly 322 km and is meant to be launched from submerged submarines.

That would be a technological breakthrough for India in its arms race with Pakistan. American intelligence officials regard the simmering rivalry one of the most dangerous flashpoints for conventional or even nuclear war. The two countries have fought three wars since independence.

FREE RUSSIA HAS A NEW AND UNIQUE FOREIGN POLICY WHICH RECEIVES BROAD SUPPORT IN RUSSIA


RUSSIA NOW AS A NEW FOREIGN POLICY UNIQUE FROM ITS PAST
Amos Perlmutter, professor of political science and sociology American University, The Washington Times, May 26, 1998, Pg. A17, HEADLINE: A new Russian foreign policy? acs-VT99

Crises in Southeast Asia, the Balkans and the Middle East obscure a much more significant event that has been evolving over the last decade, i.e. a new Russian foreign policy. To deal with this important issue a group of Council of Foreign Relations specialists have addressed themselves to describing, analyzing and evaluating the meaning of a new Russian foreign policy, and have published a book, edited by Michael Mandelbaum, "The New Russian Foreign Policy. "


NATIONALISTS, REFORMISTS, AND NEO-COMMUNISTS ALL SUPPORT EXISTING RUSSIAN FOREIGN POLICY
Martin Sieff; The Washington Times, April 26, 1998, Pg. A9, HEADLINE: Russia keeps hard-line foreign policy despite new premier , acs-VT99

Some Russian diplomats, speaking on the condition of anonymity, have said Mr. Primakov resents efforts by American conservative critics in Congress and the media to paint him as singlehandedly directing a new anti-American policy. Political sources in Moscow and U.S. analysts agreed that this picture is very misleading. They said Mr. Primakov's real power comes from the fact that he is implementing policies that enjoy broad consensus support in Russia among extreme nationalists, neocommunists and reformist democrats.


RUSSIAN FOREIGN POLICY UNDER YELTSIN HAS REMAINED UNCHANGED DUE TO GOVERNMENT SHAKE UPS
Tony Barber, Business Day (South Africa), April 21, 1998; Pg. 13, HEADLINE: MOSCOW STILL REGARDS THE US WITH PRICKLY RESENTMENT , acs-VT99

WITHIN hours of President Boris Yeltsin's dismissal of his government last month, Russia's seasoned Foreign Minister Yevgeny Primakov was at pains to emphasise that there would be no foreign policy changes. "We will defend our interests, without sliding towards confrontation," he said.

If the policy is to remain the same, that is doubtless because the problems facing Russia will remain largely the same, too.
RUSSIAN FOREIGN POLICY IS PART OF A BROAD POLITICAL CONSENSUS, AND IS NOT THE RESPONSIBILITY OF FOREIGN MINISTER PRIMAKOV
Martin Sieff; The Washington Times, April 26, 1998, Pg. A9, HEADLINE: Russia keeps hard-line foreign policy despite new premier , acs-VT99

Mr. Primakov has been widely criticized in the United States for his background as a top Soviet strategist in the 1960s and 1970s at the height of the Cold War and for his vigorous efforts since his appointment two years ago to forge close ties with China, Iran and Iraq.

Russian political sources said these policies did not originate with Mr. Primakov alone but reflected the broad consensus of the political establishment in Moscow.
RUSSIAN FOREIGN POLICY IS BACKED BY A BROAD POLITICAL CONSENSUS AND WILL NOT CHANGE WITH CHANGING HEADS OF GOVERNMENT
Martin Sieff; The Washington Times, April 26, 1998, Pg. A9, HEADLINE: Russia keeps hard-line foreign policy despite new premier , acs-VT99

Russian foreign policy is backed by a broad political consensus and won't change, whoever becomes prime minister, but it will come into increasing conflict with the United States, experts warn.

"There is a growing and fundamental discrepancy between Russia and the United States in their approaches to foreign policy, " said Dimitri Simes, president of the Nixon Center.

"There is no question that Russia is refusing to walk in lockstep to the United States any more."


CURRENT RUSSIAN FOREIGN POLICY ENJOYS BROAD SUPPORT THROUGHOUT RUSSIA
Martin Sieff; The Washington Times, April 26, 1998, Pg. A9, HEADLINE: Russia keeps hard-line foreign policy despite new premier , acs-VT99

"Clearly, it is not just Primakov's priorities that are setting policy in Moscow. It is Russian policy in general not to allow the United States to act as if the world was a U.S. protectorate," Mr. Simes said.

Mr. Bush said most Russian policy-makers believe Mr. Primakov is working on their behalf to make sure a weakened, economically crippled Russia remains a major power in the world.

"Most of the deputies in the Duma [the main house of the Russian parliament] are very happy with Primakov," Mr. Bush said. "Most Russians believe Primakov is making the best possible case for Russia in international affairs while playing from a very weak hand."

RUSSIA’S FOREIGN POLICY IS WEAK, DANGEROUS, AND INEFFECTIVE
RUSSIA IS WEAK IN ITS FOREIGN POLICY AND CANNOT LEAD OR FOLLOW
Stephen Blank, Professor of Research at the Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College, Heritage Foundation Reports, April 6, 1998 Pg. 9, HEADLINE: REFLECTIONS ON RUSSIA AND NATO ENLARGEMENT acs-VT99

That Russian power in all these areas is declining or becoming more irrelevant to the modern world while the government dithers and becomes less relevant to international issues eludes virtually all those involved in foreign policy. Russian invocations of multipolarity serve more to gain status or inhibit solutions than to assume responsibility or offer a positive agenda for multilateral action abroad.


IRAQ PROVES THAT YELTSIN'S FOREIGN POLICY IS DRIVEN BY PUBLIC SENTIMENT AND POLITICAL FACTIONS

John Hall, February 19, 1998 [The Richmond Times Dispatch. SECTION: GENERAL, Pg. A-12. HEADLINE: LETTING IRAQ ISSUE POISON TEES WITH RUSSIA WOULD BE WRONG\\jan]VT99

Zhirinovsky is sometimes a useful fool. His outburst, and Yeltsin's agitated response, was a timely demonstration that Yeltsin has a domestic political problem on his hands - from Communists, brownshirts and unfortunately from a big segment of ordinary Russian public opinion. Yeltsin is not free - despite his soaring popularity - to join American policy aimed at punishing Saddam Hussein. Iraq is a neighbor and former ally of Russia, and the best we can hope for is that Yeltsin stands aside for Clinton as Mikhail Gorbachev did for George Bush, and that there will be no lasting damage between Washington and Moscow.
RUSSIAN PEACEFUL TALK CANNOT HIDE ITS PROVOCATIVE INTERNATIONAL ACTIONS
Editorial, The Jerusalem Post, October 27, 1997, Pg. 6, HEADLINE: Desperately seeking a new Russia acs-VT99

The Russians must understand that no amount of talking about peace can mask or compensate for their real- life actions, whose effect is the very opposite of such talk. Moreover, Russia cannot expect to be treated like a responsible, developed democracy, rising like a phoenix from the ashes of the Soviet empire, if it relapses into vintage, Soviet-era foreign policies. Indeed, as much as Russia would like to be viewed as the mirror image of its previous incarnation, and welcomed as a Great Power not only in size but also in international prestige, Moscow must understand that that mantle cannot be assumed; rather, it must be earned.


RUSSIA IS ACTING TO DESTABILIZE ASIA ON ALL FRONTS
Mark Gage, Professional Staff Member for East Europe and the New Independent States, Committee on International Relations, U.S. House of Representatives, Heritage Foundation Reports, April 6, 1998; Pg. 30, HEADLINE: THE FUTURE OF UNITED STATES -- RUSSIAN RELATIONS acs-VT99

First, Russia is arming and assisting Iran: Just how many contracts can Russia claim had existed before Yeltsin's September 1994 pledge to close out arms sales to Iran after existing contracts expired?

Second, Russia is providing advanced military technology to China.

Third, Russia has actively supported -- with covert arms and direct military support -- ethnic separatist rebellions in Georgia and Azerbaijan.

Fourth, Russia has tried to manipulate the New Independent States of Central Asia by closing off their energy exports through Russian-controlled pipelines.
RUSSIA FOREIGN POLICY IS SUCCESSFULLY HELPING CREATE A BETTER WORLD AND FRIENDLY RELATIONS
IT IS IN RUSSIA’S BEST INTEREST TO BE EVERY NATION’S FRIEND, WHICH IS THE POLICY THEY ARE FOLLOWING
Richard Pipes; Professor of History, Emeritus, at Harvard University, Foreign Affairs, September, 1997 /October, 1997; Pg. 65, HEADLINE: Is Russia Still an Enemy? acs-VT99

Indeed, as soon as the Communist Party fell from power, the government that succeeded it abandoned all pretense that the country faced threats from without. If the Soviet regime required international tension, its democratic successor needs peaceful relations with other countries so that it can cut military spending and attract foreign capital. It is clearly in Russia's interests to be on the best of terms with the rest of the world, especially the United States.


YELTSIN’S FOREIGN POLICY HAS BEEN FULL OF SUCCESSES
Tony Barber, Business Day (South Africa), April 21, 1998; Pg. 13, HEADLINE: MOSCOW STILL REGARDS THE US WITH PRICKLY RESENTMENT , acs-VT99

Yeltsin can point to some successes: a blossoming relationship with China, improving ties with Japan, membership of the Asia-Pacific Economic Forum and, last month, the first annual trilateral summit with the leaders of France and Germany.


RUSSIA FOREIGN POLICY HAS STRESSED PEACEFUL PARTNERSHIP AND ENHANCED ECONOMIC TIES TO ALL OF ITS NEIGHBORS
DEBORAH ANNE PALMIERI, Journal of Commerce, August 29, 1997, Pg. 8A, HEADLINE: Russia's productive summer acs-VT99

Russian foreign policy strategy clearly displayed an effort to reach out to its neighbors and regional strategic partners in order to foster political goodwill and enhance economic ties. Its display of neighborliness included overtures to Ukraine, Azerbaijan and other former Soviet republics and the signing of key cooperation agreements with Japan. On his visit to China, the Russian prime minister and Li Peng signed billions of dollars in trade and energy deals, including a $7 billion agreement to supply China with natural gas from Siberia and provide electricity and a gas pipeline.

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