Affirmative section consultation and cooperation through dialogue networks



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UNLESS THERE IS REINTEGRATION TO DRAW PEOPLES OF EURASIA TOGETHER, THE INTERNATIONAL SECURITY SYSTEM COULD BE DESTROYED
Valery V. Tsepkalo; Belarus' Ambassador to the United States, Foreign Affairs, March, 1998 /April, 1998; Pg. 107, HEADLINE: The Remaking of Eurasia acs-VT99

If the region cannot come up with an idea that embodies the aims and aspirations of its many peoples and draws them closer together, and if the major powers continue to jockey for influence and thus exacerbate divisions, the international security system could be destroyed and international rules of conduct undermined. An order would once again have to be built, not on principles of law and justice, but around the balancing of interests and forces. That would mark a new and inauspicious "beginning of history."


VOLUNTARY REUNIFICATION OF THE FORMER SOVIET UNION INTO A NEW UNION WILL TAKE PLACE
Gennady Zyuganov, chairman Communist Party of Russia, member of parliament, 1997; MY RUSSIA: a political autobiography, p. 15-16 , acs-VT99

Voluntary reunification is inevitable. It is a matter of common sense. Time will soon tell what form this reunification will take.

The document adopted by the Duma in March 19966 cannot physically or legally resurrect the USSR as it existed before December 199 1. This is perfectly understood even by those who shout the loudest about the fragmentation of the USSR. But at the same time, it is also clear to everyone that there is a real need for a definitive political and moral assessment of the Belovezh Agreements (which had been undertaken behind the backs of the peoples of the USSR and against their will). Without such an assessment, it will-be impossible to begin the reintegration of the post-Soviet realm.

Five years of disunion have demonstrated that no single republic can climb out of the crisis by itself. It is our political and moral right to abrogate these agreements. But this does not mean that tomorrow someone will forcibly be joined with someone else. No one is about to challenge someone else's sovereignty. The right to reunite belongs to the people and no one else. But we would take all necessary steps to reestablish (on a voluntary basis) fraternal ties among Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan. This would start the incremental voluntary reestablishment of a federal union state.


RUSSIA IS STILL A DANGEROUS MILITARIZED STATE
RUSSIA’S MILITARY IS DECAYING BUT STILL VERY POWERFUL, AND ESPECIALLY SO IN TERMS OF TROOPS ALREADY STATIONED IN THE FORMER SOVIET STATES
Richard Pipes; Professor of History, Emeritus, at Harvard University, Foreign Affairs, September, 1997 /October, 1997; Pg. 65, HEADLINE: Is Russia Still an Enemy? acs-VT99

Although Russia's armed forces are demoralized and starved for money, their command structure remains largely intact and extends over most of what was once the Soviet Union. With the exception of the three Baltic states and Azerbaijan, Russian troops are deployed in every one of the ex-Soviet republics: 24,000 in Tajikistan, 15,000 in Turkmenistan, 5,000 in Uzbekistan, and so on. In Armenia, which has traditionally relied on Russia for protection from Turkey and other Muslim neighbors, Moscow has secured a 25-year basing right for its troops, in return for which it sent Armenia $ 1 billion worth of military equipment. The ostensible mission of these Russian expeditionary forces is to defend the former republics' borders and protect their ethnic Russian residents. In reality, they also serve as the vanguard of Russia's imperial drive.


RUSSIAN MILITARY THINKING IS STILL “US VS. THEM” AND DEMANDS TO BE SHOWN RESPECT
Stephen Blank, Professor of Research at the Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College, Heritage Foundation Reports, April 6, 1998 Pg. 9, HEADLINE: REFLECTIONS ON RUSSIA AND NATO ENLARGEMENT acs-VT99

Russian military thinking has retained the Soviet "us vs. them" approach and the most sterile forms of correlation-of-forces theory. n4 This militarized view of world politics and defense requirements inhibits Russia's desperately needed military reform. Russia still sees security mainly in military and zero-sum game terms where Russia must be an equal and opposing pole of the United States. n5 Accordingly, Russia did not lose the Cold War and remains a great global power by virtue of its potential. Hence, it deserves a seat at all "presidium tables" of world politics, despite its manifold weaknesses. n6 Moreover, Moscow holds that the West owes it something.


RUSSIA HAS FAILED TO DEMILITARIZE BECAUSE IT CANNOT BREAK WITH THE SECURITY IDEOLOGIES OF THE PAST
Stephen Blank, Professor of Research at the Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College, Heritage Foundation Reports, April 6, 1998 Pg. 9, HEADLINE: REFLECTIONS ON RUSSIA AND NATO ENLARGEMENT acs-VT99

The failure to demilitarize the political process and the environment within which security policy is formulated and executed has had a decisive and lasting significance for foreign policy. Perhaps the deepest source of Russian objections to NATO enlargement and NATO's superior power is that enlargement thwarts Russia's and other states' dream of a unilateral hegemony in Europe. Moscow's imperial project reflects and is bound up with a revival of traditional modes of thinking and acting in foreign policy that graphically illuminates the failure to make or consummate a revolutionary break with the past. And Europe has duly noted that failure.


RUSSIA WILL USE ITS NUCLEAR DETERRENT TO DEFEND ITSELF WHILE IT TAKES 10 YEARS TO CREATE A NEW HIGH TECH MILITARY
Richard Pipes; Professor of History, Emeritus, at Harvard University, Foreign Affairs, September, 1997 /October, 1997; Pg. 65, HEADLINE: Is Russia Still an Enemy? acs-VT99

Until they have designed the new military hardware and secured sufficient funds to procure it -- a period of between ten and 20 years, in their estimation -- Russian generals intend to rely on the nuclear deterrent. They have revoked Brezhnev's 1982 "no-first-use" pledge and, in view of the superiority of NATO's conventional forces, adopted NATO'S own flexible response strategy, formulated when Soviet conventional forces enjoyed the upper hand.


RUSSIAN MILITARY WAS SWITCHED TO RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT AS A FOCUS IN ORDER TO PRODUCE WINNING HIGH TECH WEAPONS FOR THE FUTURE
Richard Pipes; Professor of History, Emeritus, at Harvard University, Foreign Affairs, September, 1997 /October, 1997; Pg. 65, HEADLINE: Is Russia Still an Enemy? acs-VT99

Russia's new military doctrine, approved by the Yeltsin government in 1993, following U.S. practice calls for a shift in defense allocations from procurement to research and development. Hoover Institution Fellow Richard F. Staar estimates that 1997 expenditures on high-technology R&D will account for 40 percent of the defense budget. Drawing on Russia's excellent scientific talent in the field of military technology, the new doctrine projects designing, with the help of supercomputers imported from the United States, prototypes of directed-energy weapons, electronic warfare equipment, and stealth aviation. Naval weaponry is to be emphasized as well. Russia recently established an Academy of Military Sciences to study "military futurology" so as to anticipate developments among potential enemy nations and thus insure itself against shocks like Operation Desert Storm. Such a program can be carried out with the limited funds currently allocated the armed forces. First Deputy Defense Minister Andrei Kokoshkin boasts that it will enable Russia to produce weapons "that have no equivalent in the world."

RUSSIA HAS REORGANIZED AND TONED DOWN THEIR MILITARY
SIZE OF RUSSIA’S MILITARY HAS DECLINED RAPIDLY, AND THEY HAVE ENDED 200 YEARS OF FORCED MILITARY SERVICE
Leon Aron, resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, The Weekly Standard, April 20, 1998: Pg. 23, HEADLINE: THE REMARKABLE RISE OF DEMOCRATIC RUSSIA , acs-VT99

Along the way, the Russian army's manpower shrank from around 4 million in January 1992 to 1.7 million by late 1996. In July 1997, Yeltsin signed decrees mandating a further reduction, to 1.2 million. Gen. Igor Rodionov, minister of defense at the time, referred to himself as "minister of a disintegrating army and a dying fleet." Finally, Yeltsin announced the coup de grace for Russian militarism: elimination of the draft and the move to an all-volunteer force of 600,000 by the year 2000. While the transition may well take longer than three years, for a Russian leader even to talk of ending almost two centuries of conscription proves how far the country has moved from the traditional Russian (let alone Soviet) militarized state. Already Russian courts are throwing out by the dozen cases brought by the army against "deserters" who exercised their constitutional right to alternative service.


RUSSIA HAS EXPERIENCED A PROFOUND REORIENTATION AND MILITARISM IS UNLIKELY TO RETURN
Leon Aron, resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, The Weekly Standard, April 20, 1998: Pg. 23, HEADLINE: THE REMARKABLE RISE OF DEMOCRATIC RUSSIA , acs-VT99

Clearly, demilitarization is an expression of Russia's profound reorientation. The very criteria of national greatness have changed. Last June, in a televised address to the nation on the seventh anniversary of Russia's Declaration of State Sovereignty, Yeltsin said, "A great power is not mountains of weapons and subjects with no rights. A great power is a self- reliant and talented people with initiative . . . . In the foundation of our approach to the building of the Russian state . . . is the understanding that the country begins with each of us. And the sole measure of the greatness of our Motherland is the extent to which each citizen of Russia is free, healthy, educated, and happy." Unless this new consensus is extinguished by economic catastrophe and a return to dictatorship, Russian militarism is unlikely to revive.


RUSSIA IS REFORMING ITS MILITARY TO MAKE IT MORE EFFICIENT

CHICAGO TRIBUNE, January 21, 1998; Pg. 6; HEADLINE: RUSSIA'S REFORMERS UNEASY OVER OUTLOOK\\jan]VT99

Separately, Yeltsin said Tuesday that his large-scale military reform is a success so far, having overcome resistance from the top brass and even the government's political opponents. He said Russia had managed to cut its armed forces by 200,000 troops over the past year and had conducted an inventory of all military assets.

Troop numbers are due to be slashed further, to 1.2 million by the end of the year from the current 1.5 million. The reform is aimed at making the armed forces compact, mobile, efficient and technologically up to date.


ALL PARTIES IN RUSSIA AGREE THAT YELTSIN’S MILITARY REFORMS ARE REAL AND EFFECTIVE
Pavel Felgenhauer, Segodnya's defense and security affairs editor, The Moscow Times, October 30, 1997, HEADLINE: ICBMs Won't Boost Reform acs-VT99

The Council on External and Defense Policy, a well-known, Moscow-based think tank, held a public round-table debate on military reform. But there was no real debate. Leading opposition deputies from the liberal State Duma faction Yabloko, Vladimir Lukin, chairman of the committee on foreign policy, and Alexei Arbatov, deputy chairman of the committee on defense, both heaped praise on President Boris Yeltsin and Defense Minister Igor Sergeyev.

Arbatov said, "Yeltsin has come to his senses and begun real reforms together with Sergeyev."
THE COMPARISON OF RUSSIA AND CHINA SHOWS THAT DEMOCRACY IS THE BEST ANTIDOTE TO MILITARISM
Leon Aron, resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, The Weekly Standard, April 20, 1998: Pg. 23, HEADLINE: THE REMARKABLE RISE OF DEMOCRATIC RUSSIA , acs-VT99

It is the connection between democratization and national-security policy that makes Russia's situation so different from China's. Unlike the Russian reformers, China's leaders opted for nationalism to unite the nation during its dizzying economic transformation. As long as China remains authoritarian, its military buildup is likely to continue. And a democratic evolution will take time.


RUSSIA IS IN THE MIDST OF A HUGE REORGANIZATION AND CUTBACK IN ITS MILITARY
DEBORAH ANNE PALMIERI, Journal of Commerce, August 29, 1997, Pg. 8A, HEADLINE: Russia's productive summer acs-VT99

In addition, Mr. Yeltsin launched a complete overhaul of the Russian military, involving a massive scaling back, reorganization and reform of the armed forces. It is the most comprehensive restructuring and military overhaul in the history of Russia.


RUSSIA’S MILITARY IS NO LONGER AN INTERNATIONAL THREAT
RUSSIA HAS SUCCEEDED IN RAPIDLY DEMILITARIZING ITSELF
Leon Aron, resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, The Weekly Standard, April 20, 1998: Pg. 23, HEADLINE: THE REMARKABLE RISE OF DEMOCRATIC RUSSIA , acs-VT99

At the same time, a demilitarization historically unprecedented in speed and scope was underway in Russia itself. "Reduction" is a ridiculous euphemism for the systematic starvation to which Yeltsin has subjected the Soviet armed forces and military-industrial complex. In just a few years, the Russian defense sector -- once the country's omnipotent overlord, master of its choicest resources, source of national pride, and livelihood of one-third of the Russian population -- has been reduced to beggary.

In 1992, acting prime minister Yegor Gaidar ordered an 80 percent cut in defense procurement. Thus began the process of squeezing the military's share of Russian GDP from at least 20 percent to between 5 percent and 7 percent today. Yeltsin has promised to shrink it to 3 percent by the year 2000. According to Sergei Rogov, director of the USA-Canada Institute in Moscow, the armed forces' spending on organization and maintenance was at least 2.5 times lower in 1996 than in 1990; on procurement and military construction, 9 times lower; and on research and development, an astounding 10 times lower. When the government implemented an across-the-board spending "sequester" in May 1997, defense was again hit hardest. Its funding, already delayed, was slashed 20 percent.
RUSSIAN MILITARY WILL SOON BE INSUFFICIENT TO DEFEND ITSELF, SO RUSSIA MUST BE DEFENDED BY OTHERS
JOHN STEINBRUNER and CLIFFORD GADDY, Brookings Institution's foreign policy studies program, Los Angeles Times, May 3, 1998, Part M; Page 5; HEADLINE: THE BEAR HAS LOST ITS ROAR // acs-VT99

In reality, Russia can probably afford a military of no more than 400,000 personnel. But at that level, it could not possibly perform traditional missions against the opposition of any major military establishment. Because Russia cannot guarantee its own security in the form of a traditional security establishment, in effect, the outside world is going to have to guarantee Russia's security for it. At present, neither Russia nor the rest of the world seems close to accepting this unavoidable implication.


RUSSIA CANNOT AFFORD THE MILITARY ESSENTIAL TO PROTECT ITSELF
ARMED FORCES NEWSWIRE SERVICE, May 15, 1998, HEADLINE: Brookings Scholars Warn World Must Guarantee Russia's Security// acs-VT99

According to Steinbruner and Gaddy, Russia is currently running more than a century behind the United States in overall economic performance. While Russia plans to preserve a military establishment of 1.2 million people, such a force is far beyond what Moscow can afford.

"In reality, Russia can probably afford a military of no more than 400,000 personnel," the authors write. "But at that level, it could not possibly perform traditional missions against the opposition of any major military establishment," they add. As a result, the Brookings team suggests that "the outside world is going to have to guarantee Russia's security."

The authors conclude that given the combination of an economy far weaker than most people recognize and security concerns much greater, Russia is sitting on "pressures of volcanic proportions." They warn that, "In the end, it will be our problem as well as Russia. "


RUSSIA'S CONVENTIONAL FORCES ARE IN SHAMBLES AND CORRUPTION IS RUNNING DEEP
Greg Myre, January 21, 1998 [AAP NEWSFEED. HEADLINE: CIS: YELTSIN SAYS MILITARY NOW SUPPORTS HIS REFORM CAMPAIGN\\jan]VT99

The once-proud military has been in sharp decline since the Soviet break-up, and there's broad aareement that it needs new direction in the post-Cold War world. But there's been no consensus on what the new Russian military should look like. At present, many officers live in tents because there isn't enough housing The conscripted troops come mostly from the ranks of the poor and ill-educated, while youths who are better off find ways to avoid the draft. Corruption is rife, with about 30 generals and admirals currently facing criminal charges. All these factors contributed to the humiliating, defeat at the hands of Chechen rebels in the 1994-6 war for control of the southern territory.


RUSSIA DOES NOT HAVE A MILITARY DOCTRINE IN THE STATUS QUO
Mikhail Semyonovich Surkov, chairman of the Defense Committee, FEBRUARY 4, 1998 [Official Kremlin Int'l News Broadcast. HEADLINE: PRESS CONFERENCE WITH CPRF LEADER \\j an]VT99

Surkov- I believe that the question about military threats is more for me to answer than Gennady Andreyevich. Of course, I understand that Gennady Andreyevich will be able to answer tl-iis question, but still. Russia's main trouble is that to this day we do not have a military doctrine. A doctrine demands that we identify threats and the sources of threats. Today Russia is one of the few countries in the world with the exception, perhaps, of Uganda and countries like that, that does not have a militafy doctrine. Instead of a doctrine we have presidential messages, at best. Now what are the tasks of the railway troops? As you know well, railway troops and railway construction troops, which were under the command of Colonel General Marchuk, have now been reorganized. We still have railway troops, though, and they are commanded by Colonel General ... (inaudible)... What will happen with them tomorrow? They will be part of the Armed Forces.


RUSSIAN MILITARY IS MEANINGLESS AND POWERLESS
Chikahito Harada, Intl. Institute for Strategic Studies, July, 1997; RUSSIA AND NORTH-EAST ASIA, Adelphi Paper 310, p. 18, acs-VT99

On February 1997, then Minister of Defence Igor Rodionov publicly stated that Russia's protracted economic crisis threatened to reduce the armed forces to nothing by 2003, and that even the strategic nuclear forces were in a state of near-total collapse.


START 2 WILL/WILL NOT BE PASSED
CURRENT RUSSIAN POLICY IS EQUITABLE AND CONMSTRUCTIVE COOPERATION WITH THE USA, ESPECIALLY ON ARMS REDUCTION PROPOSALS
Yelena Tregubova, Russian Press Digest, May 8, 1998, HEADLINE: Foreign Policy Must Be Economical, SOURCE: RUSSKY TELEGRAF, p. 1 // acs-VT99

But in all likelihood, in order not to irritate his overseas colleague, it is expected that Yeltsin will instruct his diplomats to continue their efforts for establishing "equitable" and "constructive" cooperation with the United States. The Russian President will most likely emphasize the need to fulfill the Russo-American accords on disarmament: the Foreign Ministry will likely be instructed to step up its work with the Duma in order to ratify SALT-2 without delay, and after that, to get down to brass tacks on hammering out a SALT-3 treaty.


US-RUSSIAN RELATIONS ARE STILL GOOD IN THE STATUS QUO WHICH WILL LEAD TO THE RATIFICATION OF START II
TASS, February 17, 1998 [HEADLINE Russo-US relations are dynamic, Yeltsin says\\jan]VT99

The relations between Russia and the United States are still marked by "positive dynamics", President Boris Yeltsin believes. He regards the ratification of the Russo-American START-2 treaty as an urgent task of the State Duma.

"Commercial and economic cooperation is on the whole developing successfully. Of great importance for safeguarding strategic stability is the package of agreements on the delimitation of the strategic and non-strategic ABM systems. This allowed us to go over to the concrete discussion of the principal parameters of the START-3 treaty," Yeltsin stated in his State-of-the-Nation message to the Parliament, the 65-page text of which was handed out to members of the Russian Parliament on Tuesday. "It is an urgent task to ratify the START-2 treaty," Yeltsin stressed.
START-2 WILL LIKELY PASS AS PUBLIC OPINION MOBILIZES AROUND IT
John F. Harris, Washington Post Staff Writer, The Washington , May 04, 1998, Pg. A16, HEADLINE: After NATO Vote, Doubts on U.S.- Russia Rapport // acs-VT99

Perry likewise played down some of the recent bumps in the Russia relationship. He predicted that START II is likely to pass soon in the Duma, as more Russians awaken to the fact that the treaty is in their self-interest, although he said he is generally opposed to using summits as a way to force actions by other countries.


RUSSIAN DEFENSE ESTABLISHMENT SUPPORTS START-2 RATIFICATION
Official Kremlin Int'l News Broadcast, MAY 12, 1998, HEADLINE: ROUND-TABLE DISCUSSION ON THE START II RATIFICATION PROCESS // acs-VT99

Q: What are the main problems in the way of ratification?

Polyakov [Polyakov Mikhail Mikhailovich, acting chief of the International Treaty Directorate of the Defense Ministry]: The question should be put to the representatives of the legislative branch of government. The Defense Ministry and other elements of the executive branch have already said that the treaty must be ratified. And now it is reaffirming its view. The Defense Ministry has confirmed its view. I have often attended the meetings of the State Duma and I confirm that the Defense Ministry's position on this issue is very clear.
IF START-2 IS NOT RATIFIED, THERE WILL BE NO IMF BAIL OUT FOR RUSSIA
Daniil Osmolovsky. Kommersant-Daily, April 25, 1998, pp. 1, 3. Current Digest of the Post-Soviet Press, May 27, 1998; Pg. 4, HEADLINE: Kiriyenko Wins Confirmation on Third Try acs-VT99

In this connection, a great deal depends on whether or not world financial institutions approve of the actions of Kiriyenko's government. It cannot be ruled out that by late summer or early autumn, the Russian Cabinet will have to ask for emergency financial assistance from the International Monetary Fund, as well as from private foreign investors who take their cues on interest policy from the IMF. . . .

But if the Kremlin is unable to get the lower chamber of parliament to ratify the START II Treaty, the Russian authorities can say good-bye to all their hopes for goodwill from the United States in general and the IMF in particular. . . .
START-2 RATIFICATION IS A DEAD ISSUE
Thomas L. Friedman; International Herald Tribune, August 1, 1997, Pg. 8, HEADLINE: But What About the U.S.-Russian Relationship? acs-VT99

Fourth, in the wake of the NATO expansion there is ''no chance whatsoever'' that Russia's Parliament will ratify START-2 by this fall, said Mr. Arbatov, a supporter of the treaty. If START-2, which calls for the United States and Russia to slash long-range nuclear weapons from 7,500 to 3, 500 each, is not ratified before NATO expansion is ratified by the Western parliaments, the treaty will probably remain in limbo. ''Yeltsin promised at Helsinki that he would move quickly on START-2,'' said Mr. Arbatov, ''and when he came back to Moscow he immediately 'forgot' about it.''


RUSSIAN PARLAIMENT WILL NOT RATIFY START-2 BECAUSE OF INADEWUATE FUNDING
Xinhua News Agency, MAY 14, 1998, HEADLINE: russian lower house not to approve start, DATELINE: moscow, may 14; ITEM NO: 0514270// acs-VT99

chairman of russian state duma (lower house) gennady seleznev said here thursday that because of a shortage of money, the duma had no right to endorse the second strategic arms reduction treaty (start 2). the itar-tass and interfax news agencies reported that seleznev made the remark in a speech at the moscow institute on international relations. he said the major barrier to the approval of the treaty was financial problems. so far, the state duma had received no financial and economic feasibility reports from the government on the ratification of the treaty. he said money was needed for the destruction of nuclear weapons. however, the state budget did not include money for that purpose, which made it impossible for state duma to endorse the treaty. in recent years, the united states has been pressing russia for a quick endorsement of start 2. russian president boris yeltsin expressed the same hope in his tuesday speech on russia's current foreign policies and tasks.

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