Affirmative section consultation and cooperation through dialogue networks



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RUSSIAN ELECTIONS ARE AT RISK OF BECOMING TOOLS OF THE CENTERS OF POWER
Grigory Yavlinsky; Russian economist and the leader of Yabloko, a democratic, reformist political party, Foreign Affairs, May, 1998 / June, 1998; Pg. 67, HEADLINE: Russia's Phony Capitalism acs-VT99

Electoral politics, like much else in Russia, are also at a fork in the road. As Russian political consultants learn more tricks of the trade, the danger increases that they might join with the robber barons to try to turn future Russian elections into nothing but window dressing for irremovable oligarchic rule -- as was the case in the Soviet Union, where results were predetermined and the people were an afterthought.


RUSSIAN MEDIA WAS PROFOUNDLY BIASED PRO-YELTSIN IN THE LAST ELECTION
Grigory Yavlinsky; Russian economist and the leader of Yabloko, a democratic, reformist political party, Foreign Affairs, May, 1998 / June, 1998; Pg. 67, HEADLINE: Russia's Phony Capitalism acs-VT99

Perhaps even more disturbing is the often cited European Institute on the Media survey that documents the media's flagrant pro-Yeltsin bias. According to the EIM, Yeltsin enjoyed 53 percent of all media coverage, while his closest competitor, Gennady Zyuganov of the Communist Party, received only 18 percent. Yeltsin appeared on television more than all the other candidates combined. Moreover, election coverage was extremely slanted in the president's favor. Giving candidates a point for each positive story and subtracting a point for each negative one, Yeltsin scored +492 before the first round of the election; Zyuganov earned -313. In the second round, Yeltsin had +247 to Zyuganov's -240, despite the fact that Yeltsin disappeared from the public eye a week before the election.

COMMUNIST CONTROL OF RUSSIA WOULD BE VERY GOOD
NEW FEDERAL COMMUNIST POLICIES CAN PREVENT A NUCLEAR MELTDOWN OF RUSSIAN SOCIETY
Gennady Zyuganov, chairman Communist Party of Russia, member of parliament, 1997; MY RUSSIA: a political autobiography, p. 68 acs-VT99

However, blinded by perestroika enthusiasm and angry nihilism, the ultrarevolutionaries are recklessly destroying the building of our statehood, which they have condemned and labeled totalitarian.

Let us assume that the state does collapse. What would follow-a radioactive meltdown? We can already feel its hot breath.

I think there is another road to the future. It leads through strengthening and developing the federal state that had historically formed in our country, clearly differentiating between the rights and duties of the center and those of the sovereign republics. As an indispensable condition for renewing our Union, we must sign new and binding Union and Federal agreements.


THREE ROADS AVAILABLE FOR RUSSIA: BLOODY CIVIL WAR, A MAFIA STATE LIKE COLUMBIA, OR A NEW DEMOCRATIC COMMUNISM
Gennady Zyuganov, chairman Communist Party of Russia, member of parliament, 1997; MY RUSSIA: a political autobiography, p. 93 acs-VT99

A difficult and intensive search for a way out of the impasse is taking place. It is as if Ilya Muromets were standing at the intersection of three roads: I one road, if followed, would transform our entire country into a vast Chechnya. This "bloodbath formula" is completely unacceptable even to the most radical and irrational minds. The second road would lead to the transformation of our country into a magnified Colombia, where politics and the mafia merge and the latter is radically politicized. The outlines of such a state already exist--the readiness to engage in unlimited repression inside our country and the willingness to use nuclear blackmail outside it. Those currently in power in the Kremlin have no moral brakes or ethical constraints. The third road calls for democratic development on the basis of the Russian national state philosophy, high spiritual values, and a historical tradition that could bring together the past and the present, creating a worthy future for our people.


THE COMMUNIST PARTY CAN STOP THE ENSLAVEMENT OF RUSSIA AND THE WORLD
Gennady Zyuganov, chairman Communist Party of Russia, member of parliament, 1997; MY RUSSIA: a political autobiography, p. 65 acs-VT99

The reborn Communist Party of Russia should make patriotism its banner in the struggle for the minds and hearts of our people, while remaining faithful to the historical achievement of friendship among all peoples living in Russia. In this way, we will strengthen our people's confidence in the party of workers, allow the communists to find reliable allies, and help establish a constructive dialogue and cooperation in the whole spectrum of opposition parties and movements. In doing this, given the efforts to impose on humankind a barracks lifestyle in the "new world order," our struggle for the revival of Russia will become a contribution to the fulfillment of our international duty. Only a powerful Russia will be able to prevent the coming of a one-dimensional existence under the conditions of a new world order and allow all peoples to live according to their historical traditions, spiritual values, and long-developed ideals. Fostering Russia's return to great-power status is now a natural goal of the opposition in general and of the reborn Communist Party in particular.


WESTERN ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL STRUCTURES WILL EXPLODE AND COLLAPSE, AND RUSSIA MUST REMAIN INDEPENDENT
Gennady Zyuganov, chairman Communist Party of Russia, member of parliament, 1997; MY RUSSIA: a political autobiography, p. 129-130 , acs-VT99

The threat of an explosion is inherent in Western consumer civilization itself. For hundreds of years, this civilization has advocate material wellbeing, rejecting "Ideal" goals that did not promise material gains and superprofits. But today, production can be expanded only if the volume of natural resources and manpower involved in ae economic cycle constantly continues to increase. From century to century , the West has sucked in minerals and cheap colonial labor, new territories and spheres of influence, goods, money, ideas, and brains. The mechanism is so constructed that it simply cannot stop; stopping would mean the end of the dominance of the West.

Even a reduction in the rate of growth causes serious intrasystemic crises. And a significant reduction in consumption with a collateral lowering of standards of living would break the "free world" into smithereens. The urgent need to delay the inevitable day of radical change---the halting of the mechanism -- motivates the West increasingly to separate itself from the rest of humankind.

The collapse of the West would cause a chain reaction worldwide. All fault lines will break open, "hot points" will flare up, and conflicting regions will be engulfed in flames. If this were to occur, Russia could save itself from total chaos and global disaster only if it works in advance to strengthen its state system and its ideological, political, economic, and military self-sufficiency.


COMMUNIST PARTY WILL UTILIZE DEMOCRACY, NOT FORCE, TO SAVE RUSSIA
Gennady Zyuganov, chairman Communist Party of Russia, member of parliament, 1997; MY RUSSIA- a political autobiography, p. 185 , acs-VT99

The second lesson is that the election was an opportunity to demonstrate that we reject power methods of struggle and stand for peaceful competition. We must continue to resist any attempts to use force to solve socio-political problems, even though the worsening situation for ever larger segments of the population threatens to lead to terribly destructive spontaneous disorders.


BEST SOLUTION FOR RUSSIA IS TO MOVE FORWARD WITH SOCIALISM
Gennady Zyuganov, chairman Communist Party of Russia, member of parliament, 1997; MY RUSSIA: a political autobiography, p. 5 acs-VT99

The entire history of humankind in the twentieth century demonstrates that we should move forward to socialism. And in doing so, we should not discard the positive experience of the past but rather thoroughly analyze it and adopt what was good in it.


SOCIALISM FAILED IN RUSSIA BECAUSE OF THE COSTLY ARMS RACE, NOT BECAUSE IT WAS FLAWED
Gennady Zyuganov, chairman Communist Party of Russia, member of parliament, 1997; MY RUSSIA: a political autobiography, p. 7 acs-VT99

Objective reasons contributed to the defeat of socialism. Socialism had failed to realize its full potential in such important areas as labor productivity, the well-being of average workers, and the involvement of broad masses of the people in the creative process. Russia had been drawn into an exhausting arms race, and, in trying to catch up economically with the West, we fell into imitating Western values and observing Western priorities.


COMMUNIST CONTROL OF RUSSIA WOULD NOT SAVE RUSSIA
THE COMMUNIST IDEAL CANNOT SAVE RUSSIA, NOR CAN OTHER EXISTING FORCES
Valery V. Tsepkalo; Belarus' Ambassador to the United States, Foreign Affairs, March, 1998 /April, 1998; Pg. 107, HEADLINE: The Remaking of Eurasia acs-VT99

The communist ideal can still bring people into the streets, but the current brand of communism has compromised itself and lost its mobilizing character, and it is sapped by squabbling between factions. The monarchical-Orthodox value system harking back to the days of the czars and the Holy Russian Empire -- Moscow as the "third Rome" -- has the support only of a small group within the intelligentsia. Moreover, traditional religions and cultures can compensate for economic pain, but they tend to divide rather than unite people in countries with mixed heritages. Businesspeople's views are reasonable and intelligent, but being wholly material, they lack the force of a universal idea and so fail to generate much support at election time or any other time. Western democratic ideals have been badly tarnished in Russians' eyes as elections and other trappings of liberal democracy have failed to turn their country into a stable democracy. Instead it is becoming, according to a 1997 report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, a "criminal-syndicalist state" controlled by a troika of gangsters, corrupt government officials, and crooked businessmen who accumulate vast wealth by exploiting the "vulnerabilities of a society in transition."


[SEE IMPACT TO ELECTION DISADVANTAGE]
COMMUNISTS ARE NOT AS POPULAR AS IT WOULD SEEM FROM THEIR SHARE IN PARLIAMENT
Richard Pipes; Professor of History, Emeritus, at Harvard University, Foreign Affairs, September, 1997 /October, 1997; Pg. 65, HEADLINE: Is Russia Still an Enemy? acs-VT99

The preponderance of communists in parliament grossly overstates their popularity. It came about because in regional elections they present a single slate, while the disunited democratic parties are prone to field a dozen or more candidates.


AN ATTEMPT TO REINTEGRATE AND CONQUER FORMER SOVIET STATES WILL NOT TAKE PLACE
DESPITE THE DIRE PREDICTIONS OF MANY SOURCES, RUSSIA AND ITS PEOPLE ARE NOT WILLING TO GO TO WAR WITH OTHER PARTS OF THE FORMER SOVIET UNION
Angela Stent, professor of government at Georgetown University, Heritage Foundation Reports, April 6, 1998; Pg. 23, HEADLINE: RUSSIAN FOREIGN POLICY: THE NEW PRAGMATISM acs-VT99

Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, there have been dire warnings about impending conflicts between Russia and the former Soviet states because of Russia's inability to accept the loss of its internal empire. Commentators who focused on the rhetoric of certain Russian politicians, Duma members, and commentators -- as opposed to the deeds of the Russian government -- made dire predictions about a future Russian -- Ukrainian conflict or the uprising of the Russian Diaspora in the CIS. But today, the Russian population, and much of the leadership, have come closer to accepting the breakup of the Soviet Union than at any previous time. And despite the nostalgia for the past, the majority of Russians are unwilling to pay the military or economic costs that any forceful reintegration of the former Soviet Union would entail.


91RUSSIAN FOREIGN POLICY GUIDELINES ARE SAFE AND LOGICAL, AND DO NOT INCLUDE RECKLESS EXPANSIONISM
Angela Stent, professor of government at Georgetown University, Heritage Foundation Reports, April 6, 1998; Pg. 23, HEADLINE: RUSSIAN FOREIGN POLICY: THE NEW PRAGMATISM acs-VT99

As Russian foreign policy has become more active, it bears the imprint not only of Primakov, but also of Anatoly Chubais, Boris Nemtsov, and those who interests lie more in economic integration with the West than geostrategic influence.

The main themes of this new foreign policy are:

* Resolving long-term irritants in relations with the CIS, the West, and Asia;

* Promoting stability over instability in the CIS; and

* Focusing above all on pragmatic, largely economic goals, as opposed to the more traditional pursuit of geopolitical aggrandizement and neo-imperial dreams that we associate with the traditional foreign policy -making team.


RESTORING THE OLD SOVIET UNION IS IMPOSSIBLE
Valery V. Tsepkalo; Belarus' Ambassador to the United States, Foreign Affairs, March, 1998 /April, 1998; Pg. 107, HEADLINE: The Remaking of Eurasia acs-VT99

RESTORING THE Soviet Union to its former self is impossible. Elites, old and new, in the newly independent states are intent on preserving their nations' sovereignty. Every former Soviet republic has held presidential and parliamentary elections and adopted a new constitution. Everywhere the search for a national identity is under way, and people increasingly think of themselves not as Soviet citizens but as Ukrainians, Kazaks, or Azerbaijanis.


RUSSIA HAS CHOSEN TO ACCEPT THE EXISTING INTERNATIONAL ORDER, NOT TO CHANGE IT
Leon Aron, resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, The Weekly Standard, April 20, 1998: Pg. 23, HEADLINE: THE REMARKABLE RISE OF DEMOCRATIC RUSSIA , acs-VT99

In the end, the fundamental choice that Russia had to make in foreign policy was whether to accept the existing international order or seek to alter it. Russia chose to accept it. Moscow may bemoan the unfairness of the score -- it does so often and loudly -- but it is not trying to change the rules of the game.


CURRENT RUSSIAN POLICY IS TO GAIN PRESTIGE AND POWER THROUGH ECONOMICS, NOT THROUGH MILITARY
The Buffalo News, May 13, 1998, Pg. 6A, HEADLINE: YELTSIN SPEAKS OF PARITY WITH U.S. // acs-VT99

Russia is regaining equal footing in its relationship with the United States after a period of "illusions and exaggerated expectations," President Boris Yeltsin said Tuesday.

Yeltsin spoke to senior diplomats at Russia's Foreign Ministry. But his timing -- days before a meeting with President Clinton and the leaders of six other industrialized countries in Birmingham, England -- indicated he was addressing a wider audience.

"We inherited from the former Soviet Union the status of a . . . power based on a powerful military complex but with no solid economic foundation," he said. "It is the task of our domestic and foreign policies to do away with this imbalance."

Yeltsin said it also was time to do away with domination by a few world powers and move toward a multipolar world in the 21st century.
REACTIONARY FORCES WHO WANT TO REBUILD THE OLD RUSSIAN EMPIRE WILL FAIL
'Respublika Armenia', Radio, Yerevan, in Russian 25 Oct 97, BBC Summary of World Broadcasts, October 29, 1997, HEADLINE: Baku takes cautious step towards direct talks with Karabakh acs-VT99

[A] When the Soviet Union existed there was confrontation between the USSR and the USA. Now Russia is a partner of the United States of America. There are some reactionary forces who dream of resurrecting the Soviet Union and restoring the conflict between Russia and the USA. In Armenia there are forces which are hoping to win territory in this confrontation. But the world has changed. This will not happen.


POWERFUL RUSSIAN POLITICAL AND BUSINESS ELITES OPPOSE ANY ATTEMPT TO REINTEGRATE FORMER SOVIET STATES
Gennady I. Chufrin and Harold H. Saunders; Russian Academy of Sciences and the Kettering Foundation, The Washington Quarterly, 1997 Autumn; Pg. 35, HEADLINE: The Politics of Conflict Prevention in Russia and the Near Abroad acs-VT99

The newly emerged powerful Russian political and business elites, on the other hand, are generally opposed to reintegration, at least for the foreseeable future. Given a high diversity of political situations in former Soviet republics as well as differing levels of economic development, many Russian elites believe reintegration would be too costly politically and economically either to Russian interests or to their own.


RUSSIA HAS GIVEN UP ITS LOST EMPIRE, AND SIMPLY WISHES TO COUNTER BALANCE UNITED STATES INFLUENCE BY WORKING WITH OTHER COUNTRIES WITHOUT CREATING A CONFRONTATION WITH THE USA
Tony Barber, Business Day (South Africa), April 21, 1998; Pg. 13, HEADLINE: MOSCOW STILL REGARDS THE US WITH PRICKLY RESENTMENT , acs-VT99

Almost seven years after the end of communist rule, the collapse of the empire is broadly accepted by Moscow's foreign policy establishment - if not by parliament's dominant communist and nationalist factions - as the practical reality that defines the scope of Russian foreign policy.

The main challenge is to find a way to counterbalance the global power of the US, without allowing relations with Washington to deteriorate into confrontation.

Russia considers that the US throws its weight around too much, and is keen to build relationships with influential countries, including China and France as UN Security Council members, that appear to share this view.


RUSSIAN REINTEGRATION OF FORMER SOVIET STATES WOULD BE A GOOD THING
USA SHOULD SUPPORT FORMER SOVIET INTEGRATION WITH RUSSIA TO LIMIT DANGEROUS CHINESE AND IRANIAN INFLUENCE
Valery V. Tsepkalo; Belarus' Ambassador to the United States, Foreign Affairs, March, 1998 /April, 1998; Pg. 107, HEADLINE: The Remaking of Eurasia acs-VT99

There is an alternative. The United States could begin supporting integration in the territory of the former Soviet Union rather than the forces that divide the region. This would limit Chinese and Iranian maneuvering, introduce economic and strategic equilibrium, and improve America's relations with Russia. At the same time, Russia, along with the smaller countries of central and eastern Eurasia, must work to develop values capable of uniting disparate elements within states and drawing the broader region together into a more stable system. A tour d'horizon of Eurasia provides abundant evidence of the costs of the current course of disintegration and drift.


RUSSIA WILL REINTEGRATE WITH FORMER SOVIET PARTS ONE WAY OR ANOTHER -- BETTER TO HELP THEM DO IT
Valery V. Tsepkalo; Belarus' Ambassador to the United States, Foreign Affairs, March, 1998 /April, 1998; Pg. 107, HEADLINE: The Remaking of Eurasia acs-VT99

EITHER THE disintegration in Russia will continue or a new system of values will emerge to unite the nations of Eurasia. If Russia manages to develop a new national idea capable of bringing together its people and urging it to leadership, and again displays an inclination for integrating Eurasia, there are two possible scenarios: "hard" and "soft" integration.

If the West does not support integration, Russia will implement a hard-line policy of "land collection" on its southern and western flanks. It will also adopt a confrontational attitude toward Western nations and probably China; Moscow will again begin supporting any state that opposes U.S. interests. It will likely start with Muslim nations like Iran, Iraq, and Libya and groups like the Palestine Liberation Organization, Hamas, and the Muslim Brotherhood, as well as Cuba and North Korea. The weakness of Russia's conventional forces will probably lead it to rely on veiled threats of nuclear blackmail, using the above countries and groups, among others. Such a policy will allow Moscow back into the negotiation process in the Middle East and on the Korean peninsula, marking its return to serious international policymaking. It would also mobilize and unite Islamic elements in Russia and the CIS, cutting the ground out from under Muslim separatists by casting Russia as the ally and friend of Islam. At one stroke, it would counter both the West and China, which is dealing with Muslim unrest of its own in Xinjiang province and elsewhere.
FORMER SOVIET STATES ARE SUPPORTIVE OF REINTEGRATION WITH RUSSIA
Valery V. Tsepkalo; Belarus' Ambassador to the United States, Foreign Affairs, March, 1998 /April, 1998; Pg. 107, HEADLINE: The Remaking of Eurasia acs-VT99

Outside Russia, where there is still popular support for the traditional Russian and Soviet state, the idea of reintegration has strong appeal. Fierce political rivalry in a number of the former Soviet republics has pushed opposition forces and clans toward alliances with Russia. A policy of hard integration by the Kremlin could allow it to regain some control in several troubled states.


FORMER SOVIET STATES COULD REINTEGRATE THROUGH THE C.I.S.
Valery V. Tsepkalo; Belarus' Ambassador to the United States, Foreign Affairs, March, 1998 /April, 1998; Pg. 107, HEADLINE: The Remaking of Eurasia acs-VT99

The other form Eurasian integration could take is that of a gradual movement toward union, as in the EU. The CIS, headed by a practically powerless executive secretariat, cannot be called an operating structure for integration. The customs union -- consisting of Russia, Belarus, Kazakstan, and Kyrgyzstan -- functions, at best, as a free trade zone. The April 1997 Treaty on the Union of Belarus and Russia, however, is a step in the direction of real integration. The agreement's soft brand of integration has a tremendous political advantage over a more rigid formula for unification with or entry into the Russian Federation; Belarusan sovereignty is not diminished, and Russia is not laden with economic burdens it cannot afford to bear.


IT IS ADVANTAGEOUS TO THE WEST FOR RUSSIAN REINTEGRATION TO TAKE PLACE
Valery V. Tsepkalo; Belarus' Ambassador to the United States, Foreign Affairs, March, 1998 /April, 1998; Pg. 107, HEADLINE: The Remaking of Eurasia acs-VT99

It is clearly to the West's advantage to promote certain kinds of regional integration in Eurasia. The rapid rise of any player, especially China or Iran, or a radical Islamic revolution could harm Western interests. Western unity would be shaken if one or more of its own, whether Germany, Turkey, or Japan, tried to secure its own zone of influence. The intervention of NATO forces in future conflicts in the region, probably at the request of the parties involved, could cause further disintegration, perhaps resulting in loss of control over weapons of mass destruction.


PRESSURE AND HELP FROM THE WEST COULD MAKE ECONOMIC INTEGRATION OF FORMER SOVIET STATES POSSIBLE
Valery V. Tsepkalo; Belarus' Ambassador to the United States, Foreign Affairs, March, 1998 /April, 1998; Pg. 107, HEADLINE: The Remaking of Eurasia acs-VT99

The West has levers that it can push to help shape politics in Russia and other CIS states today, including influence over opposition leaders. With NATO expanding to the borders of Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus, and so long as Russia is weakened militarily and increasingly dependent on the West economically, Western influence is likely to grow. Economic integration supported by the West would be a powerful stabilizing factor in the region.


RUSSIA NEEDS A NEW MISSION OR ELSE IT WILL SELF-DESTRUCT, AND REINTEGRATION IS THE RIGHT ANSWER
Valery V. Tsepkalo; Belarus' Ambassador to the United States, Foreign Affairs, March, 1998 /April, 1998; Pg. 107, HEADLINE: The Remaking of Eurasia acs-VT99

Having lost faith in its guiding principles, Russia may descend into chaos and destroy itself, along with the region, unless it discovers new values that can sustain it. Nations, like people, do not live by bread alone, nor by sophisticated weaponry. They need, above all, the spiritual foundation that a great ideal and its related set of values provide. Large states and empires have always been built on an idea; the Monroe Doctrine and U.S. global leadership would not have existed but for the American belief in manifest destiny. The state should deploy such an idea with care, and citizens are right to regard it cautiously. But with its deep emotional appeal, it fires the disparate members of a society to work for the common interest rather than for selfish gain. One need look only at the monumental plants and public works built in the early decades of communism by workers laboring not for wages but for a better future

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